Posted by Bill Baer on Monday, March 30, 2009 at 6:09 am

BDD’s team preview series ends with the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies learned from their ‘07 regular season hangover that led to being quickly swept out of the playoffs by the Rockies in ‘08. Cole Hamels emerged in the postseason and a few balls bounced their way (and some, like Matt Stairs’ home run, still haven’t landed). Even a nearly 48 hour rain delay and a “team of destiny” from Tampa Bay couldn’t stop the Phillies from claiming the first World Championship in Philadelphia for any sports team in 25 years and the first one for the Phillies since 1980. Does BDD’s Bill Baer think the Phillies can become the first team to repeat as World Champions since the Yankees won the World Series in 1998, 1999 and 2000? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies.

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Philadelphia Phillies

‘08 Record: 92-70, 1st in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (-1)
Current PECOTA Projection: 87-75, 2nd in NL East

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2008 Recap

If we had to sum up the Phillies’ 2008 season in three words… we would let Chase Utley have the honor. It was Utley’s emotional outburst that best exemplified the cathartic release the Phillies’ World Series run allowed the city of Philadelphia — a city that thought it would never again see a World Champion.

Since 1983, the last time a Philly team won it all, the Phillies made the post-season only twice, and lost once in the World Series in 1993; the Eagles made the post-season a lot with their most poignant loss coming against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX in 2005; the Flyers made the post-season several times and got swept the only time they got to the Stanley Cup in 1997 against the Detroit Red Wings; and, finally, the Sixers also made the playoffs a handful of times but got edged out down the stretch in 2001 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals.

So you can imagine how important the Phillies’ World Series victory is to the City of Brotherly Love after so much repetitive failure.

The ‘08 season saw Cole Hamels’ rise to superstardom, as he is now one of the star pitchers about whom ESPN has regular injury updates. Fancy that. Hamels was also recently on the cover of Sports Illustrated. It remains to be seen whether or not that’s a bad thing.

During the regular season, Hamels threw over 227 innings with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, yet somehow did not even receive one vote of any kind in the NL Cy Young award balloting.

It was in the post-season that Hamels really showed what he was capable of doing, nearly becoming the only pitcher in baseball history to attain a perfect 5-0 record in the playoffs. Alas, the rain made Game 5 of the World Series a laugher instead of a competitive game of baseball, but despite the weather, Hamels pitched six innings with only two runs allowed before commissioner Bud Selig demanded the game be suspended.

Jayson Werth busted out as a premier power-hitting outfielder. Initially, he was splitting time with Geoff Jenkins in right field, but with Jenkins slowing down and not hitting as well as he used to, Werth usurped the everyday role. With his power (24 dingers in just over 400 at-bats) he also brought speed, as he stole 20 bags in 21 attempts.

Any recap of the Phillies’ ‘08 run has to include Brad Lidge, who quite literally had a perfect season as the closer. He was 41-for-41 in regular season save opportunities with a 1.95 ERA and K/9 rate just about at 12. His slider, which he used about 13% more than his fastball, was his go-to pitch, but in a peculiar way. To quote Peter Bendix from Beyond the Box Score in an article from September 24 of last year:

It seems rather odd that Lidge has managed to post the exact same strikeout and walk numbers as last year, despite a noticeable decline in his velocity, a vastly different pitch selection, and different amounts of called and swinging strikes than the previous year. Often times, when a pitcher shows trends like this, I’m inclined to believe it could be the sign of him getting worse. However, in Lidge’s case this may not be so. Although his fastball and slider velocities are down, he is still throwing both very hard. And the fact that he has still maintained a high strikeout rate suggests that he is as dominant as ever, even with somewhat “diminished” stuff.

To finish off the recap, we will bid adieu to Pat Burrell, with the Phillies since he was drafted first overall in the 1998 draft. Now a Tampa Bay Ray, Burrell left Philly in style. Despite struggling throughout the entire playoffs, he got a hit when the Phillies needed it the most — late in Game 5 of the World Series. It was the bottom of the seventh and Burrell was leading off against lefty J.P. Howell. Howell left a slider over the plate, which “The Bat” smoked off of the fence in left-center for a double. Burrell would be lifted for pinch-runner Eric Bruntlett, who eventually scored on the World Series-winning hit — a single by Pedro Feliz.

If you’re going to go out, there aren’t too many better ways to do it than contribute to the game-winning run of the World Series. (Editors note: This was a pretty stylish move by Burrell, too… too bad for that picture, though!)

2009 Outlook

The Phillies are looking to repeat.

Tell us something we don’t know!

The Phillies have most of their core from last season intact aside from Burrell, replaced by Raul Ibanez. New GM Ruben Amaro excellently handled eight arbitration cases but, in doing so, ballooned the payroll up over $130 million. All offseason, the Phillies were hunting for a left-handed reliever to take over in J.C. Romero’s stead, as the expressive lefty is suspended for the first 50 regular season games as a result of testing positive for a banned substance. Additionally, the Phils were interested in adding a new piece or two to the bench (even Nomar Garciaparra), but were unsuccessful in doing so as a result of the inflated payroll.

Nevertheless, the Phillies have the best offense and defense in the division, with their starting pitching and bullpen not far behind that of the rival New York Mets. Most of the NL East got stronger over the offseason, so it will be even harder to win the division. The Mets added two great relief pitchers; the Braves added three above-average starters; and the Nationals added Adam Dunn and have pitcher Jordan Zimmermann on the rise.

It will be a struggle for any team in the NL East to get to 90 wins, but expect the Phils and Mets to have some epic battles for the rights to first place. It won’t take long for the Phillies to tire of Francisco Rodriguez’s antics on the mound.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz will be back behind the plate. Although he’s not particularly productive in any aspect, he does handle the pitching staff extremely well according to most within the Phillies organization, so that has to count for something.

Ronny Paulino was just traded by the Phillies to the San Francisco Giants for left-handed reliever Jack Taschner, which effectively means that Chris Coste will once again back up Ruiz.

If the Phillies can’t get any production out of their backup catchers, there’s a chance we might see prospect Lou Marson, coveted by many Major League teams including the Boston Red Sox.

Infield

At first base is perennial slugger Ryan Howard. Don’t be fooled by his rapidly-declining OPS+ (from 167 to 144 to 124) — his struggles last season can be attributed to seeing lefties 38% of the time, an extremely high percentage, as well as simply having bad luck on balls in play.

Chase Utley, rebounding quickly from offseason hip surgery, will be back at second base. Initial timetables for his return pointed to June as optimistic, but Utley is looking to be ready by Opening Day. Utley turned in one of the finest defensive seasons in a long time, a +47 according to John Dewan’s +/-. The next closest competitor to Utley defensively: Mark Ellis at +26. Dewan recently wrote an article for The Hardball Times, concluding that Utley was so good defensively due to positioning. Oh yeah, Chase Utley is pretty good with the stick, too. If he can stay healthy all season, he’s a virtual lock as an MVP contender.

Known as much for his trademark smile as his success on the diamond, Jimmy Rollins returns for his ninth season as the Phillies’ everyday shortstop. Despite not having nearly as much success last year as he did in ‘07, there is reason for optimism with the 30-year-old from Oakland. He improved his walk rate by 3% from ‘07 to ‘08 and cut his strikeout rate by 2%. Furthermore, 24% of his balls in play were line drives, his highest percentage since ‘03. Overall, Rollins cut down on his swinging and it had a positive effect. Adding even more to his value are his speed (47-for-50 last year) and defense (best defensive shortstop according to Dewan’s +/-).

Finally, at third base is Pedro Feliz, defensive wizard. Coming off a disappointing ‘08 season and offseason back surgery, he is the biggest question mark on the roster right now. Feliz is a free agent after the season if the team doesn’t pick up his 2010 option, so he could be one of the few Phillies available for trade in July. Jason Donald, a prospect whose road to the Majors is blocked, could get some time at third base in the Minors. If Feliz can’t produce at the level the Phillies expected when they signed him, it would be no surprise to see Donald take over some or most of the playing time at the hot corner.

Outfield

Raul Ibanez takes over in left field, the spot vacated by Pat Burrell. The two are similar both offensively and defensively. Ibanez makes a bit more contact but Burrell has slightly more power, and both are putrid in the field. Overall, it’s a break-even exchange. However, the fact that Ibanez is left-handed limits manager Charlie Manuel’s lineup flexibility. Ideally, a right-hander should be in the #3 or #5 spot with the expectation that the righty will decrease the probability an opposing manager will bring in a LOOGY for Chase Utley and/or Ryan Howard.

“The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino, will bring his energy and infectious smile back to center field. According to John Walsh in an article he wrote for The Hardball Times, Victorino had the third-best throwing arm among all Major League outfielders in 2008, behind only Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton. He was also among the best base-stealers with 36 swipes in 47 attempts. Offensively, he’s about average — we can find him within about 10 points on either side of a 100 OPS+.

In right, we have the resurgent Jayson Werth. He once thought his career was over until he ran into a neighbor who suggested he have his wrist examined at the Mayo Clinic. Eventually, he had surgery on the wrist, and the Phillies snapped him up when the Dodgers let him go. That seems to have worked out.

Werth is similar to Victorino, but he also has a lot of power as a hitter. He’s excellent defensively, has great speed and steals bases at a well-above-average rate, and he’s great with the stick — he’s a bona fide lefty-masher. The Phillies would maximize Werth’s value by platooning him with a competent left-handed hitter but Geoff Jenkins isn’t that attractive these days.

Starting Rotation

“On days when Cole Hamels pitches, it has become common practice for the opposing manager to hand in his lineup card with the letters “R.I.P” after the name of each of his players.” It’s true!

Many proponents of the Verducci Effect are wary of the 262 total innings Hamels threw last year in the regular season and playoffs. Add in that he’s had some elbow problems already, and Phillies fans are holding their breath. A healthy Hamels makes the Phillies slight NL East favorites, but if he misses significant time, it’s all about playing catch-up in the East.

Aside from Hamels, the Phillies have Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, who should be good for a 4-ish ERA or better, and Jamie Moyer, who needs to have Lady Luck on his side to reenact his success from last season. The fifth spot will belong to the winner of the competition between J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park. Both have been pitching well thus far in spring training, but it may be moot depending on how badly the Phillies want another left-hander in the bullpen.

Bullpen

Mr. Perfect, Brad Lidge, will resume shutting the door in the ninth inning for the Phightin’s. Don’t expect another perfect season but Lidge should, once again, be one of the better relievers in baseball thanks to a devastating slider.

J.C. Romero will miss the first 50 games of the season after testing positive last year for a banned substance. I won’t get into the specifics of the situation, but I will say that Romero was shafted by an ambiguous drug policy with regards to what he was using, and the fact that the MLBPA (and his team’s front office) did nothing to back him up.

Scott Eyre was very effective last season after being traded to the Phillies from the Chicago Cubs. In 19 appearances and 14 and one-third innings, Eyre allowed just three earned runs and had a meager WHIP of 0.77. He and Jack Taschner will share the duty of getting out tough left-handed hitters late in the game.

Taschner is no Romero, but he should be good enough to get the job done. He doesn’t have a big difference in his platoon splits; however, his BABIP against lefties is .345 in 295 plate appearances. That’s a bit high, and with an elite defense behind him, he should be more effective against lefties than his numbers indicate.

Ryan Madson really turned the corner last season, specifically in September. He was good all season but was other-worldly when the Phillies were securing their second straight division title. Madson was more aggressive against hitters and added more velocity to his fastball. As a result, he struck out 17 hitters and allowed just one earned run in 14 innings in September.

A full season of the “new” Madson should bode well for the Phillies as he’ll be the most integral part of the “Bridge to Lidge.”

Elsewhere, the Phillies have Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey to eat up innings in middle relief. Durbin was effective last season for the first four months and then just ran out of gas in August. The likely reason was that Charlie Manuel used him a lot during the first half. Durbin’s ERA in each month from April to September:

With Lidge, Madson, Eyre, Durbin, and Condrey, there are two spots left to fill, at least for the first 50 games. One will go to the loser of the Happ/Park battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, and the last will be filled via trade right before the start of the season, or to one of the pitchers impressing in Spring Training, like Mike Koplove or Gary Majewski.

Around the Horn with the Philadelphia Phillies

Best Case Scenario…

Eyre effectively fills Romero’s shoes as the LOOGY, Utley and Feliz aren’t negatively affected by their off-season surgeries, Howard proves the naysayers wrong by putting up more mythical power numbers a la 2006, Ibanez effectively replaces Burrell, Hamels’ elbow problems turn out to be nothing, and the starting rotation continues to be fortunate on balls in play thanks to the Phillies’ great defense.

Worst Case Scenario…

Manuel puts Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in the 3-5 spots in the lineup, making them extremely susceptible to other teams’ LOOGY’s, cutting down on the overall offensive production. The Phillies’ defense regresses by a significant amount, which really hurts Moyer since he relies so heavily on balls in play being converted into outs. Hamels’ tender elbow sidelines him for a significant amount of time. The conglomeration of all these issues opens the door for the rest of the NL East to jet past the Phillies in the standings.

Breakthrough Performance…
J.A. Happ or Chan Ho Park

There’s no more Adam Eaton, so any production out of the #5 spot is welcome by the Phillies.

Ready to Rebound…
J.C. Romero

When he returns from his 50-game suspension he’ll be fresher than most relievers down the stretch, which might turn out to be just what the Phillies need.

Ready to Disappoint…
The Starting Rotation

On paper, the #2-5 spots should be above-average, but Myers is volatile, Moyer relies on a great defense, Blanton can go into the tank, and the #5 spot is, well, the #5 spot. It can get ugly real quick.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

A Phillie wins both the NL MVP and the NL Cy Young awards.

Be Shocked If…

The Phillies win less than 85 games.

In the Next Three Years…

The Phillies have some work to do. Ruben Amaro handled the eight arbitration cases excellently over the recent off-season, but with mostly one- and two-year deals, they are going to pop up again and Amaro will have to turn the players away or shell out more money. The Phillies team we see today is going to be almost completely different than the one we see in 2012.

Team Song…

“Prequel to the Sequel” by Between the Buried and Me.

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There you have it folks… 30 days, 30 previews. We didn’t even ask for a sick day or a bailout. Check back next week for the BDD teams fearless (and foolish) predictions on the upcoming season… but don’t forget to check out all of the other team previews, too!

AL East
Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central
Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

AL West
Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers

NL East
Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies (above), Washington Nationals

NL Central
Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants