Posted by Rob McQuown on Wednesday, March 25, 2009 at 2:28 am

For fans of the Chicago Cubs, it was yet another promising season that ended in disappointment. For the truly pessimistic ones, it was yet another season done in by the Curse of the Billy Goat. Their ‘08 Central division crown — second in as many years — did not result in playoff success as the Cubbies were swept by the Dodgers in the NLDS. The championship drought — now at 100 years — for the Cubs continues into ‘09 but does BDD’s Rob McQuown think this is the year the drought ends and the curse is reversed? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns, and more on the 2009 Chicago Cubs.

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Chicago Cubs

‘08 Record: 97-64, 1st in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 98-63 (-1)
Current PECOTA Projection: 93-69, 1st in NL Central

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2008 Recap

One Hundred Years.

That’s how long it had been since a Chicago team had made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. That is until the mighty North-side Juggernaut did so in 2008, following up a 2007 season where they barely eked in. It says something about the nature of sports fans — or maybe even people in general — that the other streak comes to mind when “one hundred years” is mentioned with regard to the Cubs. But, these are the halcyon days, Cubs fans. Don’t believe what the cynics tell you, even ultra-negative Cubs beat reporters who write books.

Not since Tinker, Evers, and Chance has the team been as consistently good as it’s been since, really, 2003. That’s when the team set the all-time record for strikeouts in a season, and Jim Hendry served notice that these Cubs weren’t Your Father’s Cubs — not the worst-pitching cellar-dwellers! Four times since 2003 has the team been in the top three at run prevention, and has been top two each of the past two years.

Add to the pitching a manager who believes that the base on balls can be used as an offensive weapon, and the cuddly teddy bear grows fangs and claws. I never thought I’d see the day when the Cubs led the league in on-base percentage. Yet, there it is — a marvelous .354 team mark in 2008! This topped the Albert and Chipper teams by significant margins, and the Mets were fourth at .340. All these extra base runners translated into many more runs, as the Cubs averaged 5.31 runs per game, outscoring the Mets and Phils at 4.93.

Lou Piniella has never been an advocate for young players, unlike his predecessor Dusty Baker who would stick with a kid through thick and thin. Instead, Lou’s the guy who played Felix Fermin in Seattle instead of the kid Alex Rodriguez, while Dusty was coddling an awful Rich Aurilia. But you can count on Lou to maximize the talent he has for the present by shaking things up as needed. If a hitter’s not getting it done, he’s in the doghouse, and as likely as not is soon run out of town (Murton, Cedeno, Pie). If a pitcher isn’t throwing strikes, Lou’s head looks to explode if he doesn’t yank the guy soon enough! And he seems to accomplish this while not losing the respect of his players nor wearing out his welcome.

Any 2008 recap would be incomplete without mentioning the heartbreaking sweep at the hands of a Dodgers team which was both better than the regular-season version (Furcal was back, and this “ringer” from Boston was helping them) and matched up particularly well against the Cubs. Add that to Dempster showing uncharacteristic wildness, the fielders behind Zambrano’s sinker showing uncharacteristic flakiness, and, well, when you can only support Rich Harden with one run, you have a sweep. Anything can happen in three games, and the Dodgers were loaded for Bear.

2009 Outlook

While under Andy MacPhail, Jim Hendry and the Cubs stayed true to the old Twins formula of cheapness. Since then, he’s gone almost to the opposite extreme, taking wild, bold risks – ridiculously overpaying Alfonso Soriano, locking up risky Carlos Zambrano (though at a very reasonable salary), trading for oft-injured Rich Harden, and doubling down by signing oft-injured Milton Bradley this offseason. This could be a M*A*S*H unit by the time the season’s over, but then again, it could be a team which is poised to dominate the postseason without posting a huge win total (if the injuries happen early).

It’s sort of hard to get used to, rooting for the lead dog as a Cubs fan. But Hendry probably did have the leeway he used in taking these risks. The Cubs would have to have almost apocalyptic misfortune, coupled with a Cy Young for Gallardo or Carpenter, to avoid winning the division this year. And the Reds, Astros, and Pirates should provide enough “bonus wins” to bolster their Wild Card run if one of the other serious teams does go nuts.

There really aren’t any “position battles” entering the season for Chicago. The rotation is set, with three extra starters waiting in the wings, just as they had entering last year. The bullpen — while not quite “set” — is good and Lou will tinker with it for four months. All that’s left for the 2009 Cubs to do is line them up and knock them down.

Oh, if it were only that easy!

The ’09 Team

Catcher

Among the elite hitting catchers is Geovany Soto. An attitude change a couple years ago, with a dedication to weight loss and fitness, has transformed this non-prospect into one of the best. He’s a great leader and the pitchers like throwing to him, compensating for his below-average arm. Koyie Hill’s recovery from a table saw accident is one of the best “comeback” stories in baseball, and he’s threatening to bump free agent signee Paul Bako off the roster with his hot spring.

Infield

Mike Fontenot signed Mark DeRosa’s ticket to Cleveland with his great play in part-time duty last year. He won’t keep hitting like Chase Utley, but expect him to be above-average. The familiarity with his College World Series-winning LSU double play partner Ryan Theriot will help the Cubs middle infield maximize its defensive efficiency.

Speaking of Theriot, he surprised everyone by getting on base at a fantastic .387 clip last year. This is a guy who only had a .352 OBP in the Minors, and 2008 was his age-28 season. Expect a rather severe regression to the norm in 2009, but if he can keep it around .350, his solid play at shortstop and good speed won’t hurt the team.

Derrek Lee has gotten a lot of heat in Chicagoland for all his GDP. But, as Steve Stone has repeatedly pointed out, the only effective way to cut down on those is to get fewer guys on base. That won’t be happening, but D-Lee’s “luck” should change and reduce the number by a few. He’s still a defensive standout.

Aramis Ramirez was the Cubs best offensive weapon in 2008, and can be expected to join the offensive onslaught again in 2009. His defense has been above-average for a few years, shaking the reputation for being a hack in Pittsburgh.

The bench will be free agent signee Aaron Miles, who can backup at shortstop and second base, with Fontenot covering third base when Aramis sits. First baseman Micah Hoffpauir will be 29 in 2009, but hit like Babe Ruth in 2008 (100 RBI in 71 games at Iowa!!) and continues this spring.

Outfield

Alfonso Soriano is playing left and leading off. He’s an adequate defender, who throws out lots of base runners. He’s an adequate leadoff hitter because he’s fast enough to score when he gets on base. His on-base percentage isn’t awful, and he has a lot of shock value when he homers to lead off a game. The Cubs have plenty of righty power to spare, so it’s not like they need him deeper in the order.

Center field is a Kosuke Fukudome/Reed Johnson platoon. Johnson has always hit lefties well, and has better range. Fukudome should recapture some of his Japan MVP form at the plate, and has a cannon for an arm. As a right fielder, he’s a Gold Glove contender, but is stretched to cover center. So, expect reserve Joey Gathright to get a lot of playing time, especially in bigger parks.

Right fielder Milton Bradley won’t repeat his ridiculous rate stats from 2008 (.321/.436/.563), but he was already starting to heat up when he came to San Diego in 2007 (.313/.414/.590 with Petco as his home park!). Odds are that he’ll miss half the season for some reason or another, as he’s averaged about 50% playing time the past four years.

Hoffpauir and the platoon-mates will constitute the outfield backups. Chad Fox has always had some hitting skills, and a torrid spring should make him the first recall from AAA when Bradley goes on the DL.

Starting Rotation

This is where the Cubs really shine. Almost certainly the best rotation in the National League the past two years — when park effects are considered — Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Sean Marshall, and Rich Harden can again be expected to give the Cubs the better starting pitching in a vast majority of their matchups. Harden’s caddy will come from Aaron Heilman, Chad Gaudin, or Jeff Samardzija — each of whom is capable of starting games effectively. The White Sox announcers recently compared Marshall to Bruce Hurst, and the comparison seems appropriate. While Harden is healthy, Marshall will give the Cubs a #5 who matches up with other teams’ #2 starters.

Bullpen

Sadly, fan hero Kerry Wood was let go with little fanfare this offseason. Cubs fans will miss his grittiness, and the memories of his precocious talent that Jim Riggleman failed to conserve. But Carlos Marmol is a man whose time has come. His stuff is electric, and though he has spurts where he’ll walk a couple, or allow a homer, batters simply don’t get hits off him. Kevin Gregg is durable and reliable, and gives Lou another of the flamethrowers he loves to have in his pen. Other righties in the pen are the six through eight starters, and Rule 5 pickup David Patton. Neal Cotts is poised to be the lone left-handed pitcher in the pen.

Around the Horn With the Chicago Cubs

Best Case Scenario…

Bradley and Harden are healthy. Lee closely resembles the 2005 version. Brewers fans are already wondering how Aaron Rodgers will look in June, while Tony LaRussa realizes why someone named “Skip” shouldn’t be playing second base.

Worst Case Scenario…

Zambrano’s pre-prime abuse at the hands of Dusty Baker finally catches up with him, and he starts his long-expected 18-month “vacation”. Harden and Bradley give him pointers, being well familiar with DL-land. Dempster’s control issues from the Dodgers game carry over to 2009, and Lou has to remove him from the rotation for a not-yet-ready Samardzija. Hitters and bullpen aren’t enough to make up for the losses.

Breakthrough Performance…
Sean Marshall

In 2006, Marshall opened the season with the Cubs, who had four starters on the DL. He had pitched 10 games in Double-A in his sterling Minor League career. He was woefully unready for the Major League experience, but Dusty’s loyalty (and lack of other options) kept Marshall in the rotation. Sean, to his credit, made himself into a shadow of Greg Maddux, and did what a pro needs to do to hone his craft during adversity. If that one black mark is ignored, he has the resume of a future star pitcher.

Ready to Rebound…
Rebound?

Who had an off year? Fukudome and Lee might step up a little bit.

Ready to Disappoint…
Aaron Heilman

Doesn’t Hendry watch Mets games? He has a lot of talent, but it’s hard to believe he was worth giving up both Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for two years of team control (arbitration in 2010).

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Ron Santo has some memorable calls in the Mets/Cubs NLCS.

Be Shocked If…

Milton Bradley plays 150 games.

In the Next Three Years…

The farm system has consistently supplied Hendry with parts the team needs — and parts he can trade — but his work will get trickier each year as the stars age into their mid 30’s and the existent contract escalators squeeze his budget even more. Still, this is a core group that’s loaded with star-level talent that should be in the mix for the next three years.

Obama Nation?…

While the President roots for the cross-town team, the Cubs are still the beloved of many in this country. So, while the streets will be overflowing, don’t expect the nation’s leader at a Cubs victory parade if they win it all in 2009.

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You can count the team previews remaining on one hand now, just five remaining. Here’s a link to the previous 24:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox

Tomorrow — Eric SanInocencio analyzes the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim