Posted by Rob McQuown on Tuesday, March 24, 2009 at 4:29 am

They say chicks dig the long ball. If that’s so, their favorite team in ‘08 was the Chicago White Sox. The Sox homered their way to a AL Central division title — their 235th of the year was a Jim Thome bomb in their 1-0 win over the Twins in a one-game playoff — spoiling one improbable story. They could not spoil another as they were booted out of the playoffs in four games by the glass slipper of the Tampa Bay Rays. BDD’s Rob McQuown examines this year’s version of the White Sox and how they’ll fare in the AL Central. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Chicago White Sox.

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Chicago White Sox

‘08 Record: 89-74, 1st in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 89-74
Current PECOTA Projection: 74-88, 5th in AL Central

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2008 Recap

The brilliance of Kenny Williams and the motivational whackiness of Ozzie Guillen led to another incarnation of a Sox team which dramatically out-performed virtually every national prediction, moving into first place on May 17, and never dropping more than a single game back. They ended the regular season atop a surprisingly weak AL Central with 88 wins, tied with Minnesota. A dramatic 1-0 tie-breaking victory behind a John Danks gem pushed them ahead of an equally surprising Twins team. The eventual AL Champion Rays were too much for the White Sox without their MVP candidate Carlos Quentin, and only another well-pitched game by Danks prevented them from being swept out of the playoff.

None of Williams’ high-profile moves amounted to much, actually. Orlando Cabrera disappointed on offense, defense, and “team chemistry”, while Swisher stunk with the bat and was unable to cover center field. Griffey was added –- as Ozzie put it — “20 years too late.”

But Kenny Williams found some change under his sofa and signed “The Cuban Missile” Alexei Ramirez. And he traded for MVP candidate Carlos Quentin. Acquisitions from the previous year (John Danks and Gavin Floyd) weren’t just paying dividends, but struck gold! Adding these four exciting, young stars and a few well-chosen relievers (Linebrink, Dotel, and Thornton from 2007) to the leftover veteran remnants from the good 2005-2006 seasons made the Sox a team to be reckoned with.

2009 Outlook

Who is this PECOTA guy, anyway? Didn’t he play for the rival Royals? No wonder he keeps predicting the White Sox to finish behind KC! Well, the 74 wins he predicts is more likely the total through August. The departures of Cabrera (.281/.334/.371) and Swisher (.219/.332/.410) won’t cause the 55-run drop-off that’s predicted. Getz should replace virtually all of OC’s offense, and Brian Anderson could play CF and generate almost as much offense as Swisher did while saving many more runs with his defense.

PECOTA foresees a wholesale pitching collapse following the departure of the very underrated Javier Vazquez. Buehrle had a 3.79 ERA, has a 3.80 career ERA, and had a 3.98 FIP, yet PECOTA thinks he’s going to add almost a run onto that in 2009. Predictions are similarly grim for the rest of the rotation, though it does predict the bullpen to remain relatively solid, which should help both the team and the starting pitchers.

Anyway, that’s what PECOTA says. Don’t buy into any of it. The Sox will have adequate starting pitching, even after losing Vazquez. The pen is likely to regress in 2008, but will still be very functional. The lack of a leadoff hitter will hurt them, but they still have lots of firepower. It’s not a great team, but there’s still enough talent here to sustain a .500 season. If they are in the mix in July, Williams will make a needed move.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

A Chicago beat reporter insisted that A.J.Pierzynski has an I.Q. of at least 150. While that seems like hyperbole, he is smart and seems to have honed his persona to needle people just enough to throw them off their game. Expect a little more age-related decline from him in 2009, and another season of MLB’s worst throwing arm since Mike Piazza. Ramirez should sway Ozzie from his desire to use A.J. in the #2 slot again, where he’s an awful fit. Good thing he’s so smart, or he wouldn’t be helping the team at all. Vanilla backup: Corky Miller.

Infield

People who see Alexei Ramirez play defense rave about it. Defensive stats disagree, but only time will tell. His quick wrists give him incredible bat speed so he can generate significant power from his relatively tiny frame. Expect him to be a low-OBP hitter whose value comes through batting average, home runs, and some speed.

Josh Fields put in a LOT of extra work on both fielding and hitting this offseason, and his coaches are impressed. He’s still making errors, but expect those to go down, and he’s raking in spring with his new batting style. Nobody ever doubted his athletic ability or work ethic, so if he’s really improved his fundamentals on both sides of the ball, he could be poised for some big things.

Paul Konerko played hurt last year, and hurt the team. Still, he was mostly recovered by the second half, and posted a fine .270/.374/.535 stat line after the break. Expect him to at least split the difference between his 2008 stats and his career norm.

Christopher Getz is a nice, polished second baseman who is exactly the sort of player organizations should be able to develop to fill gaps. Think Adam Kennedy, who started at second base for two different World Champions.

Off the bench, Wilson Betemit has always hit RHP well enough to play, and can spell Fields or Konerko. Brent Lillibridge hasn’t developed as a hitter, but is a very slick defender at short and second, and can run.

Outfield

The big question is whether Carlos Quentin will stay healthy. PECOTA predicts him to get 75% of the playing time, statistically, but it should be more. The self-inflicted injury from last year doesn’t seem to be having lingering effects, and he’d been playing over 95% of the time before then. Ink him in for another .380+ OBP and .550+ SLG. He’s integral to any chances the White Sox have.

Jermaine Dye is well past his prime, but seems very comfortable in Chicago, and was actually fielding better in 2008, finally getting comfortable on his once-gimpy knees again. He won’t get on base as much as you’d prefer, but expect another .500+ SLG season and lots of RBI from him.

Rumors of a “Center Fielder For a Day Contest” have proven untrue, but everyone except the fans has been out there the past few years. Best case for Chicago is if Getz can lead off, and outstanding gloveman Brian Anderson can play center without having to.

Dewayne Wise makes a fine fourth outfielder, and probably only one of Josh Kroeger, Ben Broussard, or Jerry Owens will be carried. Kroeger has the inside track with his good spring, as he is a lefty-batting side outfielder who can play center field in a pinch, as well as first base. Broussard is a first baseman, and is stretched in any outfield capacity.

Starting Rotation

Williams has had a golden touch with pitching moves, shipping out numerous pitchers over the years only to see their values drop, such as Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Brandon McCarthy, Fautino De Los Santos, Gio Gonzalez, Javier Vazquez. Wait! Javy hasn’t dropped yet? While he’s been arguably the single-most durable pitcher in all baseball and has had great K and BB rates, his stats are eerily similar to those of Brad Radke and Livan Hernandez at this stage in their careers, and those guys didn’t do much at ages 32+.

Bartolo Colon may or may not have anything left, but Aaron Poreda is about ready, and should be in the rotation for the second half, assuming the normal attrition of starting pitchers.

Clayton Richard should soak up innings at least until Poreda arrives, but don’t expect him to reach his best years until he’s closer to 30.

John Danks was fantastic, and wrested the “Ace” role from his mentor, Mark Buehrle.

Gavin Floyd was also very good, but his peripherals indicate some serious slippage.

Jose Contreras has completed a miraculous recovery from his achilles injury, lost 20 pounds, and looks like a new man. Ozzie says he’s throwing the best he’s seen, and this is the guy who Ozzie promoted to Game One Starter for the 2005 post season after a late-season hot streak.

Bullpen

In a statistical oddity, Bobby Jenks has seen his his strikeouts per game go down from 11.4 in 2005 to 6.0 in 2008, declining every season, while maintaining his effectiveness. The data has shown a drop in velocity for his “fastball”, but a higher percentage of those are now sinking two-seamers instead of “rising” four-seamers. The White Sox better hope he’s “learning to pitch” and not “losing it”, because he’s almost indispensable.

Scott Linebrink showed that he’s able to pitch elsewhere from Pitcher’s Heaven (San Diego). His homers were again outrageously high, but when the WHIP is under 1.1, that’s forgivable.

Speaking of homers, the “other” setup guy is Octavio Dotel. When he’s not allowing homers, he’s as good as the top closers in the game. He’d still be a closer if those times were a bit farther apart.

Matt Thornton emerged as one of the top 2-way (gets out both LH and RH hitters) lefties in 2008, and his peripherals were so great that it’s hard to imagine much backsliding.

The rest of the White Sox pen will be made up of another lefty (Richard or Poreda, perhaps?), and whoever emerges from the spring battles. Jeff Marquez was acquired with Betemit for Swisher, or longtime prospect Jack Egbert will probably fill one slot, with the other in the AAA rotation. The final spot will be determined in spring.

Around the Horn With the Chicago White Sox

Best Case Scenario…

Danks/Buehrle/Floyd/Contreras give the White Sox a great rotation. The old sluggers find the Fountain of Youth, and support the star youngsters with so much offense that the lack of a true leadoff hitter is hardly noticed. The Indians stumble out of the gate again, and can’t catch the wire-to-wire leaders from Chicago. A 100-win season, and a deep playoff run, leave PECOTA scratching his head.

Worst Case Scenario…

Gavin Floyd stars in the horror film, Brian Bannister’s Revenge!, wherein shaky peripherals turn viciously on the unsuspecting hero causing him to suffer a season of torment, unable to escape his surroundings. Buehrle’s high-IP totals finally grind him down, a la Livan Hernandez, and Danks is nowhere near the fifth-best starting pitcher in the league. The overworked bullpen falls to shambles, and the team’s ERA is second-worst in the AL. Alexei Ramirez can’t handle shortstop, and posts a .270 OBP . Fields can’t hit much, nor field the position, and the Sox do indeed finish last behind PECOTA’s Royals.

Breakthrough Performance…
Josh Fields

Nothing statistically really supports him being good, but all the news reports have sounded like exactly the things you want to hear about a someone like Fields.

Ready to Rebound…
Jose Contreras

Believe the hype. This guy is on a mission.

Ready to Disappoint…
Jerry Owens

Is he still on the team? As with the ridiculous hype when the team signed Darrin Erstad, some of the things this organization tries to “sell” to the fans are simply unbelievable. Owens? Leading off?! Come on!

Don’t Be Surprised If…

A.J. Pierzynski gets into a fight. Too easy? How about Gordon Beckham has an impact on the second half of the season?

Be Shocked If…

The White Sox pull off the long-rumored trade for Brian Roberts. The O’s love him too much to trade, and hate him too much to surround with talent.

In the Next Three Years…

Hawk Harrelson, White Sox announcer, has been around baseball forever. And he says that this is the most and best young talent he’s seen in a White Sox camp. Watching Dayan Viciedo and Gordon Beckham (who is already been compared to Ryne Sandberg and Paul Molitor) and Aaron Poreda play, it’s easy to catch that buzz. The team’s new brain-trust in scouting and player development is giving Kenny “Win NOW!” Williams plenty of help and trade fodder. Expect the Sox to weather the aging of their former stars well.

Booooo!…

Jim Thome is still booed by fans in Cleveland after turning down an offer to stay which included such interesting perks as a statue and the renaming of part of the stadium to “Jim Thome Home Run Porch”. It’s sort of a shame, as he’s a classy guy, in addition to being a beast with the bat.

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There’s still six previews remaining but here’s a link to the teams BDD has covered so far:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers

Tomorrow — Chicago and Rob McQuown… together again! This time he previews the Cubs.