Posted by Michael Street on Monday, March 23, 2009 at 3:29 am

The Milwaukee Brewers pushed all-in when they acquired CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians in early July. The move may have cost the Brew Crew a few prospects but it also pushed the Brewers into the Wild Card spot in the National League. Unfortunately, the ‘09 Brewers will be without Sabathia and likely without the services of Ben Sheets also. How does BDD’s Michael Street think this year’s version of the Brewers fare? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns, and more on the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers.

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Milwaukee Brewers

‘08 Record: 90-72, 2nd in NL Central (NL Wild Card)
Pythagorean Record: 87-75 (+3)
Current PECOTA Projection: 85-77, 2nd in NL Central

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2008 Recap

2008 was the year that CC Sabathia took the Brewers on his back and carried them to the playoffs, but he didn’t do it alone. Ben Sheets — finally healthy for nearly an entire season — logged a 13-9 record, with a 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 139 ERA+. Salomon Torres stepped into the void at closer and gave Milwaukee 28 low-stress saves.

Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun kept mashing, J.J. Hardy had a career year, and Mike Cameron hit homers and ran down flies like no Milwaukee centerfielder since Robin Yount. Russell Branyan reprised his 2005 righty-crushing role, and pitching phenom Yovani Gallardo recovered from an ACL injury to throw a few courageous September innings. Even Ray Durham had a minor resurgence when he came over in a late-season deal with the Giants.

You almost forget the underwhelming performances that nearly prevented this magical season: Eric Gagne’s implosion that led to Torres’ rise, Ricky Weeks’ injuries and struggles before the Durham trade, or Bill Hall’s awful slide that necessitated the Branyan promotion. And deserved or not, the September firing of skipper Ned Yost in the heat of a pennant race could have derailed the team.

Taken together, these events make a case not only for the cosmic alignment of forces beyond the Brewers’ control — like all those injuries or the Mets’ sudden collapse — but also for management controlling what it could in order to win. They gave up Matt LaPorta to rent CC Sabathia for two months and lost two prospects to get Durham. They had the foresight to sign Branyan before the season and the stones to fire Yost in September.

The front office made the necessary moves, and it’s just the way the ball rolls in baseball that made this season a hit. If the Brewers couldn’t get past the eventual World Champion Phillies in the NLDS, at least they got there. And isn’t it better to have won the Wild Card and lost in the playoffs than never to have won at all?

2009 Outlook

Losing Sabathia and Sheets isn’t a welcome development for a pitching-thin organization. As with any other contending team, the Crew will only go as far as its arms will carry it, and that may not be terribly far.

To replace their two aces, Milwaukee signed Braden Looper, who isn’t a stand-in for either of them, let alone both of them. And after Torres’ sudden retirement, they signed Trevor Hoffman, who will offer a steady veteran presence in the bullpen, even if moving to dinger-friendly Miller Park won’t help his ballooning homer rate.

Moving to a new league with more control over lineup and strategy makes new manager Ken Macha one of the biggest Brewer mysteries, as will how he’ll handle several roster spots. Bill Hall hopes to rebound after offseason weight loss and LASIK surgery, but Milwaukee might keep Casey McGehee as insurance. Hall’s platoon mates could include Mike Lamb or Craig Counsell. And Tony Gwynn, Jr., hasn’t impressed as a fourth outfielder, so Chris Duffy or Brad Nelson might fill this spot instead. Two weeks before Opening Day, it’s still not clear which way he’s leaning on these calls.

With the offense largely the same as last year, the Brewers must overcome a diminished pitching staff in a tough division. If they can get close, management has tons of minor-league hitting talent to dangle as trade bait—but that’s a big “if.”

The ’09 Team

Catcher

Jason Kendall can do almost anything adequately but hit the ball out of the infield. His ability defensively and as a game-caller represent his entire worth to the Brewers. It’s nothing they can’t improve upon with their Minor Leaguers, which they could do sooner rather than later, particularly if they fall out of the race.

Infield

They can’t afford Prince Fielder long-term and they have plenty of talent behind him, so he may be the next chip dealt. Until they do, he’ll keep homering, though he won’t crack 50 again. Rickie Weeks remains an enigma at second; it’s easy to forget he’s only 25, so there’s still room and time for growth. J.J. Hardy is blossoming as a shortstop, which may make him trade bait, too. Even though he’s better than his potential replacement, Alcides Escobar, the market may demand Hardy instead. Whomever Bill Hall platoons with at third, he won’t reclaim a full-time gig, even with all that offseason bodywork.

Outfield

Ryan Braun’s increasing plate patience should bring more hittable pitches for him to hammer. Mike Cameron will decline slowly but still pop homers and collect strikeouts while providing good defense. Corey Hart slipped back significantly in 2008, and if he doesn’t rebound, he’s the trade that will hurt them the least.

Starting Rotation

Milwaukee’s asking a lot of these guys. Despite having pitched only 124 major league innings, Yovani Gallardo’s their ace simply because he’s got #1 stuff. Braden Looper is best slotted at #3, but could rise to the occasion as the #2, though he’s at the wrong end of his career path for a talent spike. Dave Bush also climbed a rung too far on the pitching ladder, and could boom or bust at #3. Jeff Suppan is already a bust, as his 4-year, $42M deal in 2006 makes him the planet’s best-paid #4 pitcher (significantly!). Suppan’s season ERA has only been below 4.00 once in his career — in 2005. A lefty with strikeout stuff, #5 Manny Parra could rise in the rotation if things break right for him.

Bullpen

Trevor Hoffman is the stabilizing force, but things fall off sharply after him. Potential setup men David Riske and Carlos Villanueva have struggled this spring. They need to find their stuff, as there’s little help elsewhere. Seth McClung has closing experience, but he’s being groomed as a starter. If Jorge Julio ends up in a high-leverage pitching role, Brewers fans should head to the concessionaire for another beer… or twelve.

Around the Horn with the Milwaukee Brewers

Best Case Scenario…

Hitting rebounds to 2007 levels, pitching outperforms expectations, and ownership makes some key acquisitions to get the Crew to the playoffs, where they fall in the second round.

Worst Case Scenario…

Hitting erodes further, the rotation collapses, and Hoffman retires early when his Bugs Bunny changeup becomes fatter than Porky Pig. Milwaukee stares up at Houston from fourth place.

Breakthrough Performance…
Yovani Gallardo

Gallardo showed incredible moxie to come back from his injury, so he could give Milwaukee the healthy, home-grown product that Midwesterners crave.

Ready to Rebound…
Corey Hart

At 27, Hart can still turn things around. He needs to before he’s dealt to a contender who wants him to keep their bench toasty.

Ready to Disappoint…
Trevor Hoffman

Fans expect the Hoffman who’s collected 554 career saves, and he’s just not that unhittable anymore. He should be adequate, hopefully healthy, but he should continue to decline.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Milwaukee leads the league in strikeouts… on offense.

Be Shocked If…

Milwaukee leads the league in strikeouts… on the mound.

In The Next Three Years…

Milwaukee fans have tons of offense to look forward to, including hot-hitting catchers at each Minor League level, likely to have a Major League career. Angel “Pocket Pudge” Salome at Triple-A is closest, but Jonathan Lucroy at Double-A might be a better hitter, and Brett Lawrie at Class A could shift to another infield position if either one sticks. Mat Gamel has a stone glove at third, and he’s blocked at the other corner spots; if Hart or Fielder gets moved, it’s to promote Gamel. Shortstop Escobar is incredible with the glove, but lacks power and patience at the plate. That won’t stop him from rising to the Majors, but it means Milwaukee should deal him rather than Hardy.

Their pitching prospects are lower in the ranks, both in terms of advancement and talent, so the Brewers should deal its surplus of offense to build up its pitching deficits. If team management does so wisely, Brewers fans will enjoy several years of competitiveness, and perhaps another chance or two at the postseason… or the promised land.

Boldest Meatless Prediction…

Prince Fielder goes back on his vegetarian diet, then becomes so protein-starved that he knocks down Cinco the Chorizo during the sausage race and devours him.

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And then there were 7… here’s a link to all of the previews completed so far:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees and New York Mets

Tomorrow and Tuesday — Rob McQuown pitches a Chicago doubleheader with White Sox and Cubs previews