Posted by Joe Hamrahi on Sunday, March 22, 2009 at 3:05 am

For the second consecutive year, the Metropolitans found a way to blow a division lead in September to the Philadelphia Phillies. While not as catastrophic of a demise as ‘07, this year’s collapse came partnered with also losing the Wild Card spot to the Milwaukee Brewers AND watching the Phillies go on to win the World Series. The ‘09 Mets hope to leave their September troubles behind them. Armed with a new stadium (Citi Field) and a new closer (Francisco Rodriguez), the Mets look to chase away their September demons and make their way back to the postseason. Does BDD’s Joe Hamrahi think they have done the right things to make it happen? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 New York Mets.

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New York Mets

‘08 Record: 89-73, 2nd in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 89-73
Current PECOTA Projection: 90-72, 1st in NL East

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2008 Recap

As far as Mets fans are concerned, the 2008 season was just as traumatic as the 2007 season. It wasn’t bad enough that the Mets suffered one late season collapse in 2007, but they had to go through another in 2008? Unfortunately, the answer is yes!

In reality, 2008 was a much different experience for the boys from Flushing. New York suffered significant injuries throughout the year. Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez virtually missed the entire season, and Billy Wagner, Pedro Martinez, and Ryan Church all missed more than a month.

In an effort to stir things up, the Mets changed managers and brought in every possible relief pitcher to try to revive the bullpen. And while the move from Willie Randolph to Jerry Manuel proved effective, it wasn’t enough for New York to overcome its erratic play on the field. David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado did their part to prove 2007 was a fluke, but in the end, inconsistent pitching, especially in the bullpen, proved to be the fatal flaw that prevented the club from capturing the NL East crown.

2009 Outlook

The 2009 New York Mets, on paper at least, appear to be poised to finally get over the obstacles that plagued them in 2007 and 2008. However, they’ll need to avoid injuries, and the setbacks suffered by Johan Santana and Brian Schneider in Spring Training don’t bode well for a fast start.

A lot of pressure will be put on J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez to cure the woes of the Mets bullpen. Whether they can hold up while playing in front of large sellout crowds in New York remains to be seen.

Carlos Delgado will need to avoid “Father Time” and Ryan Church, Luis Castillo, and Daniel Murphy have to prove they are capable of supporting the big three of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran.

The second half performances by Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez provide optimism for a solid rotation that already sports Santana and John Maine. And young Jonathon Niese appears ready to take over the fifth spot should the ageless Livan Hernandez falter.

The Mets will almost certainly find themselves in a battle with the Phillies from the get-go. How New York handles the ghosts of 2007 and 2008 will go a long way in determining if they are ready to capture the National League East in 2009.

The ’09 Team

Catcher

Ugh… the weakest position on the field despite the praise Brian Schneider often receives as a solid defensive catcher. Ramon Castro can provide some offense if he can remain healthy. The problem is… he is NEVER healthy! Robinson Cancel may find himself playing more than expected.

Infield

The left side of the Mets infield is among the best in baseball. David Wright continues to be a force at third base and Jose Reyes showed in 2008 that he can put together an MVP-type season from start to finish.

Carlos Delgado went from almost being released to MVP candidate in 2008. After the All-Star break last year, Delgado hit .303/.386/.606 with 21 home runs and 63 RBI. He’s off to a quick start this spring, batting .438/.625/.938 in six games for Puerto Rico in the WBC.

Luis Castillo spent a good portion of 2008 out of action with knee problems. Castillo spent the off-season strengthening his body and training rigorously for the 2009 campaign. So far this spring, results have been positive. The Mets need Luis to contribute to justify the ridiculous contract he signed last year.

Outfield

Carlos Beltran is one of the most underrated players in the game today. He’s does everything very well, if not spectacular. The soon-to-be 32 year-old plays spectacular defense, gets on base (.376 OBP), hits for power (27 HRs, 40 doubles, .500 SLG), and runs extremely well (25-28 SB). Carlos’ performances often gets overlooked because of Wright and Reyes, but make no mistake about it, Beltran is an All-Star.

Before suffering multiple concussions, Ryan Church showed the potential the Mets were looking for when they traded Lastings Milledge for the right fielder last off-season. Unfortunately, Church never did fully recover and will now need to prove himself all over again in 2009.

Speaking of proving himself, Daniel Murphy has a lot riding on the 2009 season. The Mets refused to delve into the free agent market this winter, thereby anointing Murphy the regular left fielder. Murphy looked good after being called up in August last season, but now he’ll be counted on to perform for six months, not two.

Nick Evans will offer some platoon support for Murphy.

Starting Rotation

As it stands right now, the starting rotation will be Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Livan Hernandez. Tim Redding was signed this off-season to fill the fifth starter slot, but shoulder problems have him shut down indefinitely. Newly acquired Freddy Garcia has been atrocious this spring and likely will be released before the season begins. Jonathon Niese appeared to be next in line for a spot, but the Mets optioned the young left-hander to Triple-A this week.

Despite the silly battle going on for the last spot on the starting staff, the 2009 rotation appears to be in good shape. Maine isn’t all the way back from shoulder surgery, but New York feels his arm strength will be where it needs to be by Opening Day. Perez and Pelfrey are building on their strong seasons of 2008, and Santana, well, is Santana.

Bullpen

The biggest problem of 2008 seems to have been addressed with the additions of J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez. With Billy Wagner most likely gone for the entire season, K-Rod will be counted on to give the Mets the closer they have so desperately needed.

Putz should help New York fans forget Aaron Heilman while newcomer Sean Green takes over for the departed Joe Smith. Pedro Feliciano hopes for a bounce back season as the lefty specialist while Rule 5 pick Darren O’Day and Brian Stokes should fill out the revamped pen.

Around the Horn With the New York Mets

Best Case Scenario…

J.J. Putz and K-Rod prove to be just what the doctor ordered and actually protect leads for Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez. Luis Castillo provides some sort of offense, and Daniel Murphy shows that his late stint in 2008 was no fluke. New York captures the NL title from the Philadelphia Phillies…despite the claim by Jimmy Rollins that “the Mets were lucky.”

Worst Case Scenario…

Santana’s arm troubles in Spring Training carry over to regular season and the ace gets off to a slow start. Carlos Delgado shows his age, and J.J. Putz fails to bridge the gap from the starters to the closer. The Mets fall short for the third consecutive season.

Breakthrough Performance…
Ryan Church

A healthy Church finally shows he’s capable of being a solid everyday outfielder. Church adds another weapon to the Mets offense, hitting .290 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI.

Ready to Rebound…
Luis Castillo

He can’t be any worse than he was in 2008, could he? Look for Castillo to prove in 2009 that he is at least a league average 2B and not an automatic out.

Ready to Disappoint…
The Catchers

It’s not as if the Mets catchers were any good to begin with, but Schneider and Castro were just awful last year…and now Brian is out indefinitely with knee and calf injuries. Signing the recently released Josh Bard would have been a nice move, but now Mets fans are stuck longing for, well, even Todd Pratt!

Don’t Be Surprised If…

New York and Philadelphia find themselves in another battle to the finish in September.

Be Shocked If…

Jerry Manuel goes more than five games without using the word “gangsta.”

In the Next Three Years…

Fernando Martinez will finally give New York a legitimate young force in the outfield, but the Mets will realize that their minor league system needs to be replenished in a big way. David Wright and Jose Reyes will continue to improve and each will challenge for league MVP honors. Meanwhile, Johan Santana will hum along and solidify his future induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Final Thoughts…

Optimism seems to be running through Mets camp this spring. However, one has to wonder why New York couldn’t find a bona fide veteran left fielder in a free agent buyer’s market this winter. Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, and Ryan Church will be counted on to provide a lot of offense, especially if Luis Castillo falls flat on his face again in 2009.

Still, the National League is far inferior to the American League, and that should allow the Mets to remain in the thick of the playoff race throughout the season.

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The Mets wrap the 22 non-playoff teams. Here’s a link to the previous 21:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees

Tomorrow — Michael Street sizes up the Milwaukee Brewers