Posted by Kris Pollina on Saturday, March 21, 2009 at 5:28 am

Last year the Yankees traded in their inexplicable mystique for an experimental litmus test — whether it’s gauging the efficacy of Torre by replacing him with Girardi, revealing the true importance of the bullpen, or, best of all, underpinning the quantitative merits of A-Rod. And for the first time in 12 years, the Bronx Bombers inexplicably eluded their playoff birthright, closing out their final season in the House that Ruth Built with a tepid 89-73 record. The legendary Yankee Skipper Torre was shipped out to LA, with former Yankee great Joe Girardi picking up the slack. Read on for Kris Pollina’s quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns, and more on the 2009 New York Yankees.

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New York Yankees

‘08 Record: 89-73, 3rd in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 87-75 (+2)
Current PECOTA Projection: 100-62, 1st in AL East

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2008 Recap

Sometimes I look at the Yankees, and feel like I’m staring at Kirsten Dunst. Technically, she should be hot — blond, thin, pretty smile — but there’s also something a little lackluster about her. Like all her favorable attributes should add up to a lot more than what they actually do. Last year, the Yankees evoked the same breed of puzzlement. Shouldn’t any roster that looks like that be terrifying? If the Yankees can’t make the playoffs with the likes of A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, and Damon, it must be a pitching issue, right? Mussina, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Wang… again, what seems to be the problem here?

The Yanks spent the first three months of the season tethered closely to a .500 win percentage, trying to keep their friends close (Tampa Bay) and their enemies closer (Boston). In April and May, despite getting embarrassingly comfortable in the AL East four spot, the team kept it close, remaining only a few games behind the division juggernauts. By the end of July, not only had the Yanks moved to third, but were only one game behind Boston and four games behind the blazing Rays.

It wasn’t until the end of August that the Yanks were outed — they were no longer contenders. For the first time in over a decade, they found themselves in the awkwardly unfamiliar role of being a spoiler. In the span of a month, the Yankees went from nipping at Boston’s heels, to exchanging their cleats for cement shoes, to becoming the annoying toilet paper stuck that trails behind you without ever causing any real damage.

Marred by injuries to pretty much everyone who stepped foot in the Bronx, the Yankees struggled to stay afloat without players like Wang, Posada, Rivera, Pettitte, and Matsui playing on all cylinders, if at all. It was ultimately an inconsistent starting rotation that did them in. The age-old debate of where to throw Joba became a game of whack-a-mole, starting him only to reveal a dangerous set-up man gap, or using him as middle relief to expose the fragility of the starters.

Because of this unnerving unreliability of pitching, the glaring holes necessitated new blood. It was here the Yanks were able to extrapolate hope out of the disappointing season. With 20-win Mussina calling it quits, the Yanks now act out of character, stringing together a handful of “B-listers” to fortify their defense: Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, and Alfredo Aceves diminish the pressure on Mo, but more importantly support the case for starting Joba.

Was last year just the nascent stages of a disintegrating dynasty? Or was it an inevitable shift-and-adjust period? Maybe the New York Yankees are like those crack addicts on “Intervention” that unfortunately could never rebuild their lives until they first hit rock bottom, and saw the detrimental effects of “quick fixes.”

2009 Outlook

No one’s happier than Joe Girardi right now. He has ample justification to write off last year’s failures as a foregone conclusion, the unavoidable transition period that was bound to see its fair share of miscues and monkey wrenches. And this year? He’s equipped with an armenetarium of tools — the invigorating dynamic of Yankee Stadium Part II, a pitching staff that boasts CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, and one of the league’s most powerful assets, Mark Teixiera.

Though the Yankees are never ones to pay even a fraction of a second of attention to their critics (buy their team, etc., etc., ad nauseum, infinitum), 2009 will give more responsibilities to blue collar/ young talent (if only by necessity and not by choice).
With A-Rod doing his best impression of the biblical Job who was plagued by one mess after another, the Yanks are forced to sink or swim without the best player in baseball. While franchise men like Jeter, Posada, and Mo have undoubtedly lost a step or two, they’ve managed to cheat old age so far, and will use their experienced years to help — not harm — the team.

Between veteran experience and baby freshness, the Yankees are looking down at a promising 2009 season. If they manage to nurture their talent and protect their health, the only thing standing in between them and the postseason is their outfield and catcher spots.

The 2009 Team

Catcher

It was only two years ago that Jorge Posada posted a banner year, making every Yankee fan and every daring fantasy team owner swell with pride and loyalty. While no one could expect his 2008 performance to even closely mirror that, his contributions still managed to evade complete dismissal. In fact, his .268 BA is respectable and his ability to hit in the clutch is for some reason never addressed. I still like Posada catching, but their backup Jose Molina may be more valuable this year — comparing his caught games to those of Posada’s may be splitting hairs, but more playing time for Molina will undoubtedly bring to light the value of a strong arm. He should see significantly more playing time this year, especially with Posada’s lingering shoulder injuries.

Infield

On each corner of the diamond, the Yankees are hanging their defensive hopes and dreams on untested formulas. Their new first baseman brings a formidable reputation. The Yankees bought a gem in switch-hitter Mark Teixiera (308, 33 HR, 121 RBI, .410 OBP). Not only is he fortifying the lineup’s offensive power, as one of the best defensive players in the game, he significantly upgrades the infield’s solidity. Newly acquired Nick Swisher (.219, 24 HR, 69 RBI, .332 OBP) was slated for first before the Yankee’s Merry “Teixmas” present, but he still may back up Teixiera and serve as part time DH when he’s not in the outfield. His BA should improve by at least a few points this year.

At the other side of the field, the “A-Void” at third has been swiftly occupied with Cody Ransom, a demure-version of Shelley Duncan who inexplicably went yard more often than not at each plate appearance. If he continues the pace he established with the team last year (.302, 4 HRs, 8 RBI, .400 OBP), no one will be bemoaning A-Rod’s absence for long. All he needs is a Scott Brosius-like season to support the rest of the dynamic infield.

Second baseman Robinson Cano (.271, 14 HR, 72 RBI, .305 OBP) boasts stats to belie his actual subpar season. He was a step above mediocre, but the pool of lefty power in the league mandates immaculate defense from second. However, Cano’s tepid 2008 is certainly a temporary departure from his standards. With Teix playing alongside him, being surrounded by a stronger roster will ultimately allow his contributions to balloon to his best season to date.

As for the other middle-infielder, Derek Jeter (.300, 11 HR, 69 RBI, .363 OBP) has been thrown under the bus often and hard lately, with critics lambasting his wildly overrated defensive skills at shortstop. His .979 fielding percentage was the second best of his career, and it looks to be even tighter in 2009. Without A-Rod annexing a lot of SS territory, Jeter will be forced to develop his left side, unless he’s ready to hang his hat on Ransom’s defensive confidence and prowess. This could go the other way though. A-Rod’s otherworldly fielding presence bailed out Jeter a lot, but without A-Rod covering Jeter, the infield may be confused as to why so many balls are being roped between short and third…hits that would have been seamlessly fielded last year.

Outfield

Nick Swisher has the speed and arm to cover center field, the latter asset being egregiously absent from last season’s motley crew of outfielders. Johnny Damon (303, 17 HR, 71 RBI, .375 OBP, 29 SB), on the other hand, is limited so severely by his gumbi-like “cannon” that he’ll be moved around practically on a weekly basis. He’s too valuable as leadoff and too quick on the bases to relegate him to DH.
The real question hovering over the outfield is the ambiguous roles of Kid vs. Kid (aka Melky Cabrera vs. Brett Gardner). Both cover an admirable amount of ground in the outfield, and luckily still seem to be riding off fresh-off-the-farm hustle and ambition. The new stadium’s outfield demands this kind of vast coverage, but all things being equal, Gardner should be getting more action. He’s got a hotter bat and the speed to boot.

On the other end of the spectrum there’s Xavier Nady (305, 25 HR, 97 RBI, .357 OBP) who looks to start in right field. He gave the Yanks and fantasy owners alike an impressive burst of talent, but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to improve progress from there. Depending on where the other outfielders are placed, Nady may be fighting for the right field spot with Swisher, and likely will share DH duties with Hideki Matsui so that his big bat remains in play.

The key to keeping the tentative outfield intact will be keeping Swisher and Damon healthy, while closely monitoring the progress of Gardner and Cabrera — if they can avoid being submerged in replacement-level status, they should give the team enough support to avoid the disaster that typically results in that lopsided pool of arms and speed.

Designated Hitter

Right now, Matsui (.294, 9 HR, 45 RBI, .370 OBP) is filling the DH spot, and isn’t expected to take the field until June at the earliest. Despite making a few Spring Training starts, last season’s injuries have diluted his dependability. As such, he went from a steadfast cog in the machine to a loose cannon, on offense and defense. With a demonstrated high penchant for cold spells, the gamble here is that when Godzilla’s off, he’s way off. When he’s at full health, he loops in RBI after RBI, so his team value this year will be a factor of how well he’s recovered from last year. He looked satisfactory though not remarkable in preseason play, but should still get the job done in whatever capacity he’s needed.

Starting Rotation

This is where the Yankees will be made or broken. Their quest for Championship #27 falls squarely on the shoulders of blockbuster additions CC Sabathia (17-10, 2.70 ERA, 35 starts, 253 IP, 251 K last year) and A.J. Burnett (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 34 starts, 221 IP, 231 K), with high expectations of support in Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes.

No matter how many morbidly obese jokes are slung at CC, the fact remains the guy is a beast and one of the best (if not THE best) pitcher in baseball last year. He’s young, throws a wicked slider and two-seamer, and his lefty status staves off a lot of stolen bases. He’s a nightmare for most of the league, and the effect of his profound dominance will be evident the second the 2009 season is underway.

As for A.J. and Chien-Mien Wang (8-2, 4.07 ERA, 15 starts), their biggest enemies are health afflictions. A.J. can be flypaper for damaging arm injuries but his Spring Training starts have been nothing short of dazzling. The secret to preserving the good stuff? Keep Wang off the basepaths and A.J. away from everything.

Rounding out the rotation will be Joba (4-3, 2.60 ERA, 42 games, 12 starts) and his accompanying polarizing schools of thoughts, Hughes and his accompanying monkey on his back of anticipated superstardom, and Pettitte (14-14, 4.54 ERA, 33 starts, 204 IP) and his accompanying “hey-day” reputation that yet to coincide with his production from the mound. He needs to pull a Mike Mussina and deliver the unexpected justification season that no one saw coming. The revamped bats may give him the needed push to bring him up to this level.

Bullpen

For the first time in years, the bullpen won’t bring Yankee fans to tears. If the Yanks are willing to give up their phenom reliever to a starting spot, then the rest of the pen must be pretty damn solid. Pitchers like Damaso Marte, Alfredo Aceves, Brian Bruney, and Edwar Ramirez make the late innings a little more palatable, and no one’s happier than Mariano Rivera about not seeing Kyle Farnsworth take the mound in the eighth inning.

The pen is where Girardi evidenced the greatest improvement from the Torre era. Instead of abusing his relievers until their arms mimicked the consistency of Silly Putty, Girardi worked the pen extremely efficiently. With a huge upgrade in his starting rotation, the pen improvement will be even more noticeable. Hopefully, the attention given to the pen/starters will prove to be null if Mariano injures himself. The 2009 season will certainly showcase the rise of these young hurlers, and with proper conditioning, they’ll be able to slip into long relief or closing. While Torre loved to erratically start middle relievers, Girardi is much more militant about the relief/starter segregation. This is huge when you absolutely need to preserve your starters’ arms.

Around the Horn with the New York Yankees

Best Case Scenario…

The Yankees have their back up against the wall with the abrupt loss of their All-Star third baseman. Depending on how you look at it, they’re staring down a win-win or lose-lose situation. If they flourish without their controversy-ridden boy Alex, then it will be difficult to deny claims he’s a clubhouse cancer, or that he wasn’t in fact worth the exorbitant price. And if the Yanks flounder in his absence…well, they flounder. Their best case scenario is that Cody Ransom pulls a Tom Brady to A-Rod’s Drew Bledsoe. The team gels in the first three months of the season, sits comfortably atop the AL East, and then when A-Rod returns, it’s like that “Rookie of the Year” movie: his cast comes off and he becomes the league’s most untouchable, flawless talent.

Worst Case Scenario…

A worse-er case scenario than the one that’s been playing out for the team since the week prior to Spring Training? So far A-Rod’s been outed as a juicer, he’s done for the first half of the season, half the team’s amid a finance scandal, their beloved ex-skipper threw them to the wolves, and no one knows exactly what their outfield or five-man roster will ultimately look like.

Well, there’s a few things that could top that, I suppose…

2009 turns out to be the inevitable year that does Posada in. The Yanks have to rely on Molina to call games, disturbing the confidence levels of a dynamite pitching staff. The team spends the first three months of the season experimenting with new outfield permutations only to discover that five average fielders doesn’t amount to above-average overall talent. And worst of the worst case scenario? Cody Ransom becomes the guy on the NY Lotto commercials — the guy who hits the jackpot and then makes himself the team’s third baseman despite the fact he’s yet to aptly field a ball. Oh and A-Rod’s return coincidentally marks the start of the team’s decline.

Breakthrough Performance…
Robinson Cano

The season’s breakout performance will come from the second baseman who undeniably has it in him to have such a year. Cano’s unimpressive 2008 aligned with the rest of the team’s spotty play. But his numbers still brand him as an up and coming talent.

Ready to Rebound…
Andy Pettitte

Pettitte doesn’t ignite the same degree of comfort with each start, as he once did. Fans’ excitement over his Bronx return most likely stems from memories of what he had done for the Yankees during their dynasty years. He has a 2007-like Moose year, and expect 2009 to reflect a 2008 Moose year. Pettitte’s back, and he’s going to ride to the playoffs hitched to his cut fastball. It improved as the year went on last year. More importantly, his control of his change-up and curve did, as well.

Ready to Disappoint…
Derek Jeter

As much as I hate to say it, I’m afraid Jeter is going to have to step up his game considerably without A-Rod bailing him out on the field. Because he’s Jeter, he’ll always be vital to the club, but he needs to get on base a lot more than he has… especially if he wants Teix’s bat to mean anything.

Don’t be Surprised If…

A-Rod returns to form with only the minimal amount of adjustment-period time. Out of the limelight will undoubtedly work in his favor. Don’t be surprised if he puts up hefty numbers within two weeks of his return in a valiant effort to silence his critics and revalidate his steroid-free talent.

Be Shocked If…

Joba is anywhere near as elusive as a starter compared to when he was a reliever. If he wants to retain even a fraction of the same mystique and dominance that he monopolized with the “Joba Rules,” then he needs to build up a richer stock of pitches… and fast.

In the Next Three Years…

The Yankees will no longer be stacking their roster with trendy players that come at premium prices. Since they ARE the Yankees, this will, of course, always come into play. But the next three years will see a subtle, if not awkward, embrace of cultivating newer talent. The 2009 season juxtaposes veterans with rookies, big name stars with under-the-radar position players. Depending on how this mix plays itself out, the Yankees may admittedly acknowledge the importance in building, not just buying.

Trust Me On This One…

The New York Yankees are winning the 2009 World Series. Yeah, you heard me. Lock it up!

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Before the Yankees, there were 20 teams covered. Check their links here:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins

Tomorrow — Joe Hamrahi meets the New York Mets