Posted by Matt Sisson on Friday, March 20, 2009 at 4:00 am

Raise your hand if you thought the ‘08 Minnesota Twins would be in contention for a playoff spot after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana (and others). Those of you who raised your hand, please provide documented proof of such a claim. It’s hard to find anyone who thought the Twins would be contenders in the AL Central but it took a one-game playoff loss to the White Sox to end their surprising run. Manager Rod Gardenhire came within one game of capturing his fifth division title in seven years. Does BDD’s Matt Sisson think there is still a little magic left in their last season at the Metrodome? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Minnesota Twins.

—————-

Minnesota Twins

‘08 Record: 88-75, 2nd in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 89-74 (-1)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85, 3rd in AL Central

—————-

2008 Recap

The Twins were able to prove their way of playing baseball works. While the rest of the division added players and increased their payroll, the Twins let Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva walk, traded away their best pitcher (Santana), a good young arm (Garza), and good defensive shortstop (Bartlett) for a load of prospects from the Mets and Rays. Nathan, Mauer, and Morneau aside, the roster couldn’t compare to that of the newly improved Tigers, Indians, and White Sox but it was the Twins who fought with Chicago on the 163rd game of the season for a playoff spot.

Had the Twins not lost Adam Everett and Michael Cuddyer then they may have been able to squeak one more regular season win securing themselves the American League Central playoff spot. Some good did come from the injuries…without them there would have been no room for Denard Span and Alexi Casilla to emerge and leave their mark with the team. Span posted a .398 OBP in 411 plate appearances in the leadoff spot while Casilla moved him along and got on base for the big bats to follow. The Twins averaged 5.09 runs per game which was the best in the AL Central division and third best in the AL behind Rangers and Red Sox.

Who would have thought that the Twins were had the third best run producing line up in the American League? The Twins led the league in sacrifices (52) and were smart on the base paths, taking extra bases when they could and hitting well with runners in scoring position. They fielded a team of home grown talent and it took a one game playoff to eliminate them from playoff contention. Their pitching was consistently excellent without being flashy and did it by limiting free passes and not making mistakes.

2009 Outlook

Can an entire team be considered “underrated”? They were in 2008 and I expect them to be again in 2009. No one sees the Twins roster and automatically thinks “playoff contender” but they are. Their rotation is full of young arms, 1-5, that have all shown they can compete and with Liriano back as their full time ace with a full offseason to build his arm back up, they’re even better than they were last year. The Twins have one of the best closers in baseball and a lineup that boasts a former batting champ and MVP. The Twins fly under the radar and you won’t think twice about them until your team ends up on the losing end of a three-game series. The Central division is loaded with talent the Twins will have to compete with the Indians, White Sox, and Tigers for a playoff spot. The Twins have the best rotation in the division and if healthy should still be in the playoff hunt at the end of the season.

The ’09 Team

Catcher

Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the American League but the Twins prize behind the plate has been troubled by some lingering pain caused by inflammation in his right sacroiliac joint, which is where the spine meets the pelvis. Mauer is seeking a second opinion and the Twins doctors plan on switching Mauer to stronger medication but the situation should be monitored. Twins GM Bill Smith indicated that he doesn’t expect Mauer to be out for an extended period of time but if he were to land on the DL as a result of this inflamed lower back than the Twins would look to Mark Redmond to fill in.

Infield

The Twins infield, led by former AL MVP Justin Morneau, is a solid group of defensive players who are offensively better on the right side of the diamond than the left.

Alexi Castilla was solid in the field but could do a better job at the plate. He was having a good year at the plate last year before tearing a ligament in his thumb (.313/.351/.424) and wasn’t the same after returning from a month long DL stint.

Shortstop Nick Punto had a solid offensive year in 2008 but has had sort of a sort of up and down history with the Twins. In 2006 Punto batted .290/.352/.373, in 2007 he hit .210/.291/.271 and rebounded in 2008 with .284/.344/.382. Was Punto just adjusting to life in the big leagues or is this a trend we should be concerned with?

The Twins major addition this year was third baseman Joe Crede. Crede missed most of 2007 season and parts of the 2008 season with back problems but has been able to average 25 home runs per 162 games. Crede’s power could help the Twins who were dead last in the American League with 111 long dingers.

Outfield

The Twins outfield is comprised of Delmon Young in left, Carlos Gomez in center, and Michael Cuddyer in right. The Twins actually have five outfielders who could all play but they’re still settling into their roles.

Young had a decent first year with the Twin but batted an empty .290. He started off the season slow, taking 60 games to hit his first home run. He doesn’t walk much and isn’t a good defensive player but you have to remember that he’s only 23-years-old. There’s still potential for upside with this guy.

Gomez is slated for the leadoff spot in the line up but had trouble hitting there last season. He’s an excellent defender and speedy on the bath paths but lacks patients at the plate.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Denard Span took over the leadoff spot some time during the season like he did last year, moving Gomez down to the end of the order where he had success in ‘08.

When Cuddyer is healthy, he can really play. The problem is, he’s had a tough time staying in the lineup. Coming into his age 30 season, Cuddyer has been able to increase his walk rate while and should be good for about 300-400 plate appearances in 2009. He is slightly below league average offensively when compared to other right fielders in the league but should have success if healthy. With the amount of playing time up in the air due to injury, effectiveness, etc. there should be a big opportunity for Span to grab onto a roll and have success for the rest of the season.

Designated Hitter

Jason Kubel should serve as the primary designated hitter for the Twins in 2009. At this point, he’s neither good nor bad but should serve his purpose for the Twins. He can play some out field but isn’t a good defender and he’s been known to have his bat really heat up at some points during the season, showing flashes of the highly touted prospect he was in the minor leagues before experiencing a knee injury. Kubel is going into his age 27 season and it’s been said that coming into the 2008 season he still wasn’t recovered from his knee injury. If his situation has improved health-wise he should be better than league average for the Twins.

Starting Rotation

The Twins starting rotation, led by Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey, could be considered the best and most stable rotation in the Central division. Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins are both relatively young (27 & 26) and had success in 2008. The rotation proved they could get the job done in 2008 and it’s expected to improve in 2009. Liriano will have a full offseason to build his arm back up after Tommy John surgery and will return to the pitcher with one of the most exciting arms in the bigs like during the 2006 season.

Baker should battle for the title of “Ace” with Liriano in 2009 and improve in the strikeout department.

Slowey, a pitcher with the best control of the staff, averaged just 1.35 walks/9 in 2008, the lowest of any pitcher in MLB to throw more than 80 innings. Slowey can also strike people out which makes him even more effective on the mound.

Perkins is a similar pitcher to Slowey but without the ability to make guys swing and miss and he also tends to give up more home runs. He’s still young and will improve with more service time.

Blackburn came up with the expectation of being good and was at times in 2008 but he got hit hard at times. He’ll need time to go through the adjustments and still needs to develop some of his pitches.

All in all, the Twins rotation should do great things in 2009.

Bullpen

The Twins bullpen, home to Joe Nathan, is likely the second best in the American League (behind Boston). They have Jesse Crain to take the eighth, bridging the gap to one of baseball’s best closers. Crain has an impressive ’08 season after recovering from both labrum and rotator cuff surgery. His work load was limited so he should have more of an impact in ’09 now that he’s had more time to recover and build strength.

Rookie Jose Mijares was excellent during his September cup of coffee in ’08, posting a 0.87 ERA and 0.29 WHIP in 10 games and holding hitters to a .088 batting average. Not bad!

Matt Guerrier is there to take the seventh but had a tough go of it last season. He was solid in his previous two seasons but tends to give up a lot of homers.

Around the Horn with the Minnesota Twins

Best Case Scenario…

Twins take the Central. A lot of things will need to go right for this team to compete in the Central. They are full of upside and potential but they need to play at least as good as they did last year.

Worst Case Scenario…

Third place in the Central…Cleveland and Detroit will still be contenders and the Twins could easily end up like the ’08 Indians if some of their players get hurt. Their success will lie in the health of the rotation but if they’re healthy they should succeed.

Breakthrough Performance…
Francisco Liriano

He may have “broke through” with the success he had in his comeback in ’08 but he’ll be able to throw without restrictions this season. He should be able to exceed what he did in 2006 when he went 12-3 with 144 K’s in 121 IP with a 2.90 ERA. Honorable mention to Span who should really make an impact with the Twins in 2009.

Ready to Rebound…
Michael Cuddyer

This guy is good when he’s on the field. He only managed 279 plate appearances in 2008 after 623 in ’07 and 635 in ’06. I’d expect 20 HR and 90 RBI out of the five spot if he’s healthy.

Ready to Disappoint…
Joe Mauer

Lingering back problems coming into the season may limit how prepared he is when the season starts. I’d expect a slow start and a dip in his counting stats and season batting average which is his only dominant offensive category.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Span finishes the season with a starting outfield spot hitting lead off and Liraino leads the league in Wins.

Be Shocked If…

Crede stays healthy this season. Coming into his age 31 season, Crede has been hampered by back trouble for a number of years. Re-occurring back problems aren’t the way to go if you want to get more than 400 plate appearances.

In the Next Three Years…

The Twins rotation should mold into one of baseball’s best and could resemble that of what carried the Atlanta Braves for so many years. They’re all young and all proved they can get the job done during the 2008 season. With more innings under their belt they should continue to improve each year.

Final Thoughts…

Baseball’s most underrated team could do great things in 2009. Yes, it is possible to underrate an entire team and this is because the sum of the Twins roster is greater as a whole than of its individual parts. They are able to compete with a low payroll because they are smart and make the right decisions. They bring up players through their system and get the most from their stars on the trade market when they know they won’t be able to resign them.

—————-

Two-thirds of the previews are completed… here is a link to all teams covered so far:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros

Tomorrow — Kris Pollina critiques the New York Yankees