Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, March 19, 2009 at 3:30 am

Without Craig Biggio for the first time in two decades, the Houston Astros 2008 season was a rocky one… and almost a “Rocky” one. New GM Ed Wade and the Astros took flack for offseason moves, in-season moves, from Shawn Chacon… Even Mother Nature got involved! Out of nowhere, the ’stros won 86 games and finished third in the NL Central. Most expect a big tumble in ‘09. BDD’s Brian Joseph takes a look back at last year, explores this year’s outlook with position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Houston Astros.

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Houston Astros

‘08 Record: 86-75, 3rd in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 77-84 (-9)
Current PECOTA Projection: 68-94, 5th in NL Central

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2008 Recap

What do you do when you inherit the responsibility of turning around baseball’s worst Minor League system? If you are newly appointed GM Ed Wade, you deal Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls (both in need of a change of scenery), Luke Scott, Eric Bruntlett, and unproven talents Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Troy Patton, Juan Gutierrez, and Chris Burke for a post-prime Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde, steady reliever Geoff Geary, and raw talent Michael Bourn. Perplexed yet? Wait, there’s more.

Wade also signed vet Kaz Matsui to fill the huge vacancy left by the retirement of Craig Biggio, former All-Star Darin Erstad, and future Wade nemesis Shawn Chacon.

The ’stros struggled in the first half and questions about the appointment of Wade to GM surfaced. They spent a decent amount of time in the Central cellar and a June 25 altercation between Wade and Chacon in which Chacon grabbed Wade by the neck and tossed him to the ground sent Chacon to a suspension and release and furthered the “Wade was a mistake” movement.

Then, as the club showed signs of life around the trade deadline, Wade made two more moves that left many bewildered. First, the Astros acquired 31-year-old starter Randy Wolf in exchange for Minor Leaguer Chad Reineke then they added 35-year-old reliever LaTroy Hawkins for Minor Leaguer Matt Cusick. While many teams 13-1/2 games out would look for the future, Wade took an unorthodox — and criticized — approach.

All of a sudden, the Astros went on a tear. Winning streaks of four, eight, eight, and six had them in the Wild Card hunt. It took divine intervention — Hurricane Ike — and a Carlos Zambrano no-hitter during a home game in Milwaukee to derail their red-hot run and the ’stros never recovered. They finished 86-75, a half game ahead of the Cardinals for third in the Central and 3-1/2 behind the Brewers for the Wild Card. And maybe the run stalled the Wade criticism… for a few minutes.

2009 Outlook

Many chalked up the second half run of the Astros as a mirage. So far, their 1-15 Spring Training record has done nothing to help convince anyone who puts stock in their fifth place PECOTA projection of 68-94 otherwise.

Let’s start with the positives: Roy Oswalt should be completely healthy, newly acquired Mike Hampton has a bigger upside than Chacon (and is unlikely to put Wade in a headlock), Miguel Tejada may be able to put the Mitchell Report and his outisde issues behind him in ‘09, Lance Berkman is consistent, Carlos Lee for an entire year is better than Lee at 115 games, Hunter Pence isn’t likely to forget how to hit for a month again, Jose Valverde is a serious closer and one tough hombre, and Michael Bourn should improve.

Those positives aren’t quite enough to outweigh the negatives: The Astros largely outperformed their Pythagorean W-L (by nine games) in ‘08, Ty Wigginton and his 23 homers are gone, his replacement Aaron Boone was lost for the year today after he announced he would need career-threatening open heart surgery, Randy Wolf departed after a strong half-season, Hampton is injury prone, as is Matsui, and their catching situation (until the Pudge deal is official) is a hot mess. Was it mentioned they are 1-15 in Spring Training?

And let’s not forget their Minor League system was rated 30th out of 30 for the second straight year by Baseball America.

That being said, the Astros have gotten a lot of bad baseball out of their system this preseason and Wade showed he was unwilling to give up on a team basically out of it last year at the deadline. It’s entirely possible more unorthodox “now” moves could keep them competitive. The first one — the signing of Ivan Rodriguez — is pending as of this post.

The always looming possibility of injuries and the Astros relative lack of depth might be their biggest flaw. With very little Major League-ready talent in the Minors, a few key injuries might actually spiral this team to a record as bad (if not worse) than PECOTA calls for.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

For most of Spring Training, the three-player race for two spots between Humberto Quintero, J.R. Towles, and Rule 5 pick Lou Palmisano has lacked promise. The three have fired a lot of blanks and the Astros finally went out and potentially solved their catching crisis with the addition of veteran Ivan Rodriguez. The deal isn’t official but should be soon now that “Pudge” and Puerto Rico have been ousted from the World Baseball Classic and he can take a physical. Does the addition of a vet like Rodriguez open the door for Towles to earn the backup role and possibly learn a thing or two from a 14-time All-Star, 13-time Gold Glover, seven-time Silver Slugger, and 1999 AL MVP? It’s more likely that Quintero picks up the backup spot and Towles’ future continues to dim.

Infield

Since ‘00, Lance Berkman has been a Houston lineup staple. The former outfielder now logs his time at first base and should continue to do so. Last year’s 159 OPS+ season was a nice rebound from his 131 OPS+ “dip” in ‘07.

Can Kaz Matsui stay healthy at second? The numbers are solid when Kaz can play but his career high in games played is 114 (in ‘04 with the Mets) and last year was sidelined with a strained right hamstring and anal fissure (ouch!). Behind Matsui is a little fuzzy at the moment. Jason Smith has impressed in Spring Training and Geoff Blum was possibly going to pick up time at second on occasion. With Aaron Boone out for the year, that is less likely but still possible. There are a few guys in camp that might pick up Boone’s spot but it’s unknown if that player will be a utility guy who can play second.

At short is Miguel Tejada. Smith, Edwin Maysonet, and Tommy Manzella are all in contention for a roster spot because of manager Cecil Cooper’s desire to have a true shortstop available to spell Tejada. The ‘08 version of Tejada left many thinking it was the beginning of the end of his career but his ‘09 preseason has showed promise.

The departure of Ty Wigginton was slightly softened by the addition of Boone but now Boone is gone. Prospect Chris Johnson is the likely beneficiary of Boone’s misfortune and will fill Boone’s half of the platoon with Geoff Blum. If a third baseman is out there, the Astros might pursue him. For now it’s Blum and Johnson.

Outfield

The return of Carlos Lee is a welcome one. Even with the injury last year, Lee had an impressive offensive showing. He’ll take left and make the baseball cringe every time it heads to the plate.

In center, Michael Bourn (version 2.0) will try to hold on to the starting job again. The team has been impressed with his patience and improved eye but the speedy Bourn needs vast improvement on the on-base front if he is ever going to be the leadoff hitter a few, including Cooper, envision. For now, Bourn will hit second or at the bottom of the lineup but if he shows signs of life at the plate, he could unseat Matsui in the leadoff role.

In right, it’s Hunter Pence. Pence saw increased power but dips in his average and on-base percentage in 2008. It took him a while to get on track, something the Astros can’t afford again this year.

Aging Darin Erstad is the fourth outfielder but continues to defy Father Time and has been one of the few bright spots of Spring Training. Also available is the servicable Jason Michaels.

Starting Rotation

Roy Oswalt is capable of winning 20 and is the ace. Second in the rotation is Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy had a decent ‘08 season but has been troubled by an injury this Spring. Free agent acquisition Mike Hampton left Atlanta for Houston and is a cheap risk with a high upside. If Hampton can be anywhere close to the pitcher he was during his first stop in Houston, the risk will be worth the reward. Brian Moehler is long in the tooth but put together a solid year in his return to a starting role. Does he have another 11 wins in his system at age 37?

The final spot of the rotation is up for grabs. It did belong to Brandon Backe but an injury has put him on the outside looking in. It looks like Jose Capellan is the front-runner but don’t count out Russ Ortiz.

Bullpen

Jose Valverde returns as the closer. He’ll be accompanied by trade rumors at the deadline if the Astros are out of it. (If 2008 was an indication, will the front office ever consider them out of it?) LaTroy Hawkins returns and will be the set-up man along with Doug Brocail. Heading the rest of the bullpen candidates are righties Geoff Geary and Chris Sampon and lefties Tim Byrdak and Wesley Wright.

Around the Horn With the Houston Astros

Best Case Scenario…

Either they start out on fire and add some veteran talent at the trade deadline to make a serious improbable run or they stumble out of the gate and dismantle the nucleus of the team… either one gives them a direction.

Worst Case Scenario…

Another mediocre year and late surge keeps the Astros close enough to think it’s not worth blowing up their aging roster. The long, painful process of restocking their depleted Minor League system is put off for yet another year.

Breakthrough Performance…
Wandy Rodriguez

This one is tough. Wandy’s health is a concern but he has the ability to develop into a solid No. 2. Originally, the pick was going to be Bourn but after his ‘08 let down, Rodriguez feels like the safer choice.

Ready to Rebound…
Mike Hampton

Hampton is due, isn’t he? Hampton’s return last season was once again hampered by injuries but let’s go out on a limb and predict Hampton to throw 150 innings this year. He can do that and still make one trip to the DL.

Ready to Disappoint…
[Insert Houston Catcher Here]

Pick one. Even “Pudge” is someone to be wary of at 37. Beyond Rodriguez, expect mediocre play from Quintero which is good compared to what permanent disappointment Towles will do IF he gets the opportunity.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Astros don’t throw in the towel and linger in the middle of the division and make another late season run as other teams begin looking toward 2010.

Be Shocked If…

Wade only moves a veteran player out of necessity “selling low”. His hand was forced as GM in Philadelphia to move Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen and both moves were busts. Moving Lidge last year was considered necessary and so far, the Phillies seem the better for it.

In the Next Three Years…

The Astros slip in the win column but slowly see their Minor League system improve. For all of the knocks Wade took in Philadelphia, he found the right personnel and the team made some excellent draft choices during his regime. If the Astros farm system is the Sahara Desert of talent. ‘08 first round pick Jason Castro looks like a future solution to their woeful catching situation and a few arms may surprise. Castro is the only Astro prospect in Baseball America’s Top 100… and he’s 53rd. Pitcher-turned-outfielder Brian Bogusevic has some long-term potential but is probably still a year away. After that, it’s slim pickings. Wade has his work cut out for him… not unlike when he took over the Phillies over a decade ago.

Best Stadium Feature In Baseball…

“Tal’s Hill” in center field at Minute Maid Park. A 30-degree, uphill slope with a flag pole on the field is just the thing to add character to any stadium.

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19 down, 11 on deck. Here’s the teams previewed so far.

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays

Tomorrow — Matt Sisson talks Minnesota Twins