Posted by Andy Spear on Wednesday, March 18, 2009 at 5:48 am

Yesterday, in the introduction of the Cardinals preview, it was mentioned that they were the first team to win at least 86 games and finish fourth in their division since the expansion to three divisions per league. Actually, that’s only half true since the Toronto Blue Jays of 2008 accomplished the exact same feat with their 86 wins and fourth place finish in the AL East. It just goes to show you how often the Jays get lost in the headlines in their powerhouse of a division. Even with the return of Cito Gaston to the bench (and their impressive 51-37 record under him), the story of the ‘08 Jays easily falls behind those of the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. BDD’s Andy Spear takes a quick look back at their forgotten ‘08 tale. Read on for that and the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more for the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays.

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Toronto Blue Jays

‘08 Record: 86-76, 4th in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (-7)
Current PECOTA Projection: 73-89, 5th in AL East

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2008 Recap

The Blue Jays finished fourth in the AL East despite their 86-76 record. Better still, after firing manager John Gibbons and replacing him with former bench boss Cito Gaston, the Jays played better ball for the remainder of the season, compiling a 51-37 record under Gaston.

Toronto finished right in the middle of the league in batting, ranking 15th while hitting at a .264 pace. Alex Rios (.291 BA, 91 runs, 79 RBI, 15 HR, 32 SB) emerged as the Bluebirds’ best offensive threat, and Vernon Wells rebounded from an atrocious ‘07 to hit .300 with 20 homers in only 108 games. A stint on the D.L. may again await Wells this year thanks to a pulled hammy, the same thing that cost him 54 games last season.

The leader of the team, Roy Halladay, won 20 games and finished second in Cy Young voting. A.J. Burnett made at least 30 starts for only the third time in his 10-year career and posted a career-best 18-10 record, and flew the coop thanks to an opt-out clause in his contract.

2009 Outlook

If there’s ever a time to dream, this is it. Such is the hope Spring Training brings to baseball fans. Maybe this is the year things actually play out differently for the Blue Jays. Maybe now that expectations are low and the outlook is seemingly bleak, they can actually find a way to break through in the ultra-competitive AL East.

The harshness of reality is the Blue Jays will open the 2009 campaign after not signing a single Major League free agent to bolster the roster despite the departure of 18-game winner A.J. Burnett and injuries to fellow starters Dustin McGowan (back in May at the earliest) and Shaun Marcum (out for the year). That combination puts massive holes in the starting rotation.

Help and team improvement will have to come from prospects, Minor League free agent signings, and reclamation projects of veterans on their last legs. There is always hope of self-improvement, return from injuries or career years from the returning roster, too.

Two injured players from ‘08 will be expected to produce more in ‘09, as second and third basemen Aaron Hill and Scott Rolen hope to play more than the 170 games combined for last year. The oft-concussed Hill looks to be healthy and will search for his ‘07 form when he clubbed 17 dingers and hit .291. Rolen looks to return to slugger status and improve on the 11 homers he hit last year.

Shortstop and leadoff spot are definitely questions. Scrappy Marco Scutaro is expected to see the bulk of time as both. Scutaro is a grinder, but like his backup — ex-Indian John MacDonald –he should be a bench player. He’s a career .261 hitter and last year’s “breakout” year on the base paths grossed seven steals.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Rod Barajas seems to like it in Toronto and was great defensively last year, leading all AL catchers with a throw-out rate of 34.4% last year.

Infield

If first baseman Lyle Overbay and third baseman Scott Rolen can deliver on increased expectations, the lineup should greatly improve. Overbay hit only 15 home runs last year. Combined with Rolen’s 11, that’s not enough power from the corner infielders.

Many who have watched Aaron Hill think he is capable of contending for a batting title. Toronto needs him to be healthy and symptom-free from last year’s concussion.

Marco Scutaro appears to be the starter at short. More of a solid utility man, he’s definitely not a game-changer.

Veteran infielder Kevin Millar was signed to a Minor League deal as insurance. Millar hit .234 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI for Baltimore last season, the third 20-homer season of his 11-year career.

Outfield

The outfield should be a four-man rotation of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Adam Lind, and Travis Snider. Youngsters Lind and Snider might be relied on heavily this year, a good thing for Toronto fans. Last year, Lind batted .282 with 9 homers in 326 at-bats, and ‘06 first rounder Snider hit .301 during his 73 at-bat debut. If these two youngsters can come through like some of Tampa’s kids did last year, Lind and Snider could also give the offensive some extra pop.

Designated Hitter

The player left out of the four-man outfield rotation should handle the majority of time at DH.

Starting Rotation

Roy Halladay is perhaps the best veteran pitcher in baseball. With Burnett gone, and Shaun Marcum (elbow) and Dustin McGowan (shoulder) injured, he’ll be the lone familiar face in the rotation.

Scrambling to find starter to fill the rotation, Jesse Litsch, last year’s fifth man at age 23, is suddenly Toronto’s No. 2 starter.

After Litsch, David Purcey (3-6 in 12 starts as a rookie in ‘08), Canadian Scott Richmond, and a slew of converted relievers (Casey Janssen and Scott Downs to name two) will compete for the other spots in the rotation — at least until prospects Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Brad Mills are ready.

Also vying for spots are right-hander Matt Clement and left-handers Mike Maroth and Ken Takahashi, all newcomers. Clement and Maroth are attempting to return from shoulder injuries while the 39-year-old Takahashi is hoping to land a job on Toronto’s staff after spending his entire 14-year career in Japan.

Bullpen

What the Jays lack in rotation depth, they make up for it in the bullpen, among the best in baseball. Their 2.94 ERA was the best in either league in ‘08. Relievers Downs, Brandon League, Jesse Carlson, Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet, and closer B.J. Ryan all pitched over 22 innings with sub-3.00 ERAs last season. Also, former closer and set-up man Jeremy Accardo will return from a forearm strain that derailed his ‘08 season.

Closer Ryan bounced back well from Tommy John surgery. Last year, he recorded 32 saves while compiling a 2.95 ERA, and averaged a strikeout in each of his 58 innings. Credit the coaching staff for keeping Ryan’s appearances to three outs or less. his well-preserved arm can be counted on again in ‘09.

Around the Horn With the Toronto Blue Jays

Best Case Scenario…

The Blue Jays best case is for other team’s worst case scenarios to play out. They need for Tampa Bay to be a one year wonder. A mortal Sabathia and former Jay A.J. to revert to his 20-start seasons. And the Red Sox need to play like it’s 2006.

Frankly, they need players to stay injury-free with many posting career years for the Jays to even be close to challenging for a Wild Card spot.

Worst Case Scenario…

Halladay goes down or has a mere mortal year. The former is more likely than the latter. Everything rests of Halladay winning 20 games again this year.

Breakthrough Performance…
Adam Lind

At times, Lind has looked like a “can’t miss” natural hitter. Entering Spring Training as the starter in left, he could chase the .300 mark through most of the season. Add in a fair amount of pop (20 homers or so) and depending on the guys in front of him in the lineup, Lind should easily reach 70 RBI.

Ready to Rebound…
Alex Rios

The former two-time All-Star had a decent year but only because of his hot second half. He has to be a constant threat and show power all year long. The Jays need him to blossom into the player that they (and the league) think he can be.

Ready to Disappoint…
Vernon Wells

Vernon played well upon his return from injury last year but with him already affected by the same hamstring that sidelined him in ‘08, it’s likely Wells will spend more time on the DL. Even when he is gutting it out, Wells won’t be earning the huge contract GM J.P. Ricciardi gave him a few years ago.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Blue Jays do better than most people think. Over the past few years, the Toronto faithful have believed J.P.’s line of having a team that can compete. Things just might work out with the kids forced into action that this is the Canadian version of the Tampa Bay Rays. Rays does rhyme with Jays… maybe we have something here.

That being said the opposite could come true. Wells’ hamstring keeps him out of the lineup, Hill’s symptoms return, Rios doesn’t become a leader and Snider and Lind are overmatched by Major League pitching. Halladay might have seen enough by the trade deadline to realize he will never be a winner in Toronto and ask to be traded.

Be Shocked If…

Takahashi is the best Japanese import to make their debut in ‘09.

In the Next Three Years…

There will be an overhaul to this team. If things go as bad as some expect, and former honcho Paul Beeston finds a new President, they should bring in a new GM by ‘10. The key is, who else, Roy Halladay. Can they afford him with the new economy and the falling Canadian dollar or do they package him for prospects that can make the jump to “The Show” quickly to augment Hill, Lind, Snider and Rios?

Here’s An Odd Jays Fact…

Litsch, 24, was once the Tampa Bay Devil Rays bat boy and Public Relations Intern.

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18 previews signed and sealed… here’s a link to all of the BDD Team Previews so far:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals

Tomorrow — Brian Joseph assesses the Houston Astros