Posted by Rob McQuown on Tuesday, March 17, 2009 at 10:01 am

86 wins by the Cardinals were only good enough for fourth place in the National League Central. The Cardinals and MVP Albert Pujols became the first team since baseball expanded to three divisions per league to win 86 games and finish fourth in their respective division. With the Brewers and Astros taking a step backward, can the Cardinals challenge the Cubs to reclaim the Central crown they owned from 2004-06? BDD’s Rob McQuown takes a quick look back at last year and gives this year’s outlook with position breakdowns and more on the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals.

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St. Louis Cardinals

‘08 Record: 86-76, 4th in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 86-76
Current PECOTA Projection: 81-81, 3rd in NL Central

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2008 Recap

Quick, how many games did the Cardinals win in 2008?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: A team with a history of winning tons of championships finishes behind their rivals who play in an antiquated ballpark and are much more loved by most despite their relative lack of success. Their tough division produces the Wild Card winner. They finish over .500, led by one of the best hitters in history propping up a much-injured pitching staff. Hmmmm… Hold on New York, the second-most titled franchise in Major League history played some good ball in 2008, too!

A constant stream of blown saves — seven by Jason Isringhausen — were cited as the reason the Cardinals were kept out of the playoffs and the civilized fan base shed their decency in booing Izzy into a crisis of confidence. Whether the fans are rabid barbarians or mild-mannered beer swillers, the season was essentially done after Chris Carpenter’s third start.

As they showed in the ‘04 World Series, the team just isn’t the same without their horse. And Carpenter’s about as good as they come when he’s right. The Cardinals put up a valiant effort, and Tony LaRussa tried all his tricks. But help didn’t come at the trading deadline. The team, which was four games back in second place on August 1st, saw Milwaukee pull away, and were even caught from behind by the surging Astros.

Albert Pujols hit .357/.462/.653 in 2008, winning the NL MVP Award. Think about it.

Pujols has been so good, it’s easy to take him for granted, but this was a team with below-average talent around him. GM John Mozeliak inherited one of the easiest guys to build around and got a new ballpark to insure the team will make money. Fans are rightfully curious about the team’s unwillingness to spend money to “finish” the team around Pujols. Injuries to their ace and lesser injuries to other very good players — such as Isringhausen, Adam Wainwright, and Rick Ankiel — probably would have killed their chances anyway, but it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t have been giving the Brewers a hard time if their middle infield hadn’t hit like it was the 60 and their bullpen had a go-to guy.

On the positive side, it was a typically great season for one of the best coach duos ever. Many of the “little moves” that LaRussa and Dave Duncan did turned to gold… or at least started to look gilded. Troy Glaus registered his best OBP since 2000, and was 13th in MLB on the Fielding Bible +/- system at third base. He wasn’t quite Scott Rolen with the glove but he played in 151 games, out-hit his “challenge trade” partner by a ton, and didn’t fight with LaRussa. The usual bullpen magic Duncan works was atypically absent in 2008. The weakened rotation was also a contributing factor. Yet, they managed to “break in” their closer of the future — Chris Perez — in the midst of a Isringhausen meltdown. Yadier Molina started to realize the offensive potential that everyone, including Pujols, had long raved about, and the team found one of the better leadoff hitters against RHP in Skip Schumaker. Wainwright successfully moved back into a starting role, and Ryan Ludwick was a revelation (18th-best VORP).

2009 Outlook

The Cardinals have their work cut out for them.

A few years ago, the mantra was always about how weak the NL Central was. But the Cubs are loading up like their taking this winning thing seriously, and the Brewers are still laden with good young talent.

It’s a strange, nerve-racking offseason for Cards fans. While they weren’t big players in free agency, things got shaken up somewhat.

Khalil Greene, an enigma on many levels, was acquired in a trade for two players, but — no joke — the Padres have until April 1st to choose the second from a list of three. He should improve the shortstop position offensively without giving much back on defense.

A mega-prospect since his Little League World Series days, Colby Rasmus is expected to push Schumaker out of an outfield role… and right into the vacancy created at second by Aaron Miles’ defection!

Other non-moves that nonetheless involve question marks involve Ludwick, Perez, and the top of the rotation. The talk around bird feeders everywhere will be about whether Carpenter and Wainwright will be a healthy, intimidating one-two punch, or something less. And whether Ludwick will end up with a one-season career, or can sustan a high level of production. And the most lively discussion will involve the state of the pen, and young closer-by-default Perez.

Despite the uncertain times — on and off the field — the fans will flock to the park, and they’ve migrated well as the team travels. It’s one of the most loyal and informed fan bases in the nation, and the new park they helped fun will remain as full as the economy will support. Team management and the coaching staff have both shown and engendered loyalty, keeping star players and often receiving favorable pricing in return. Don’t expect massive shakeups, but if the team is in contention and has an obvious hole, expect LaRussa to pressure Mozeliak to force a needed deadline deal.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Yadier Molina didn’t do as well at preventing the running game in ‘08. His SB/9 innings went up from .24 to .30. He didn’t even quite throw out 35% of attempted thieves. Those are worse than his previous year which only points out how much better he is than any other non-Pudge catcher defensively. He rarely strikes out, allowing him to hit for a decent average despite being almost as slow as his brothers. He’s about as close to the next Tony Pena as possible. Jason LaRue will be his undistinguished backup again.

Infield

Unless LaRuss tries to get creative and move Albert Pujols away from first base, and he aggravates his injuries, there’s little doubt about what Albert will do. With no weaknesses in his game, Pujols is the best hitter in the game today.

Khalil Greene has slugged .484 in his career… AWAY from spacious Petco Park. Too bad for him that St. Louis isn’t much better for hitting, though the change should help somewhat. He used to be a constant “Web Gem”, and is still an asset on defense with above-average range and a strong arm.

Opening Day will see 2008’s unsung hero Troy Glaus (.372 OBP, .483 SLG, 151 games played) on the DL, and Minor League outfielder Joe Mather at third. Mather has played 24 professional games at the position since Rookie Ball, where he was last a regular infielder in 2002, and looks like he could hit some. That’s 25 more than Skip Schumaker has played at his new position, second base. Schumaker had a fantastic season against Northpaws, hitting .340/.393/.468 against them, and really made the offense go from the leadoff spot. Expect less from Schumaker, but close to his career line of .324/.371/.451 vs. RHP will be just fine. Defensively, expect some serious impact to the pitching stats for at least the first month, while these outfielders adjust to their new homes. Glaus has worked his way into being an above-average defender, and will help the team both offensively and defensively upon his May return.

Off the bench, Mather will provide a nice bat who can play third, first and outfield, while both Tyler Greene and Brendan Ryan can handle middle infield and third without being useless at the plate. Ryan will play second against LHP, and sub for defense, too. Look for LaRussa to try to find a lefty bat to replace one of them by mid-season.

Outfield

Whatever afflicted center fielder Rick Ankiel on the mound hasn’t carried over to his play as a hitter or fielder. He’s one of the best defenders in center now, and among the most powerful. Don’t expect much more OBP from him, but his first half numbers of .270/.343/.529 — before his abdominal strain — are more representative of his ability when healty.

The top slugging outfielder in MLB in 2008 were:

1. Ryan Ludwick (.591)
2. Carlos Quentin (.571)
3. Milton Bradley (.563)
4. Ryan Braun (.553)
5. Jermaine Dye (.541)
6. Matt Holliday (.538)

Yes, right fielder Ryan Ludwick out-slugged all outfielders in 2008. By a lot, if you consider only NL outfielders. Four of the six guys played in the best homer parks in baseball while Ryan played in St. Louis, making it more amazing. While that season screams “career year”, his MLP translations from back in the early 00’s were quite good, and he’s a very good defender, capable of handling center if needed. Expect him to regress, but a .500 slugging seems reasonable.

High on the list of cheerleaders for the “Schumaker to second” experiment working is Uber-prospect Colby Rasmus. An injury kept him from asserting his will on the Minors again in 2008, and he’s not having the sort of spring to force LaRussa’s hand, though he’s had an adequate .343 OBP while batting leadoff much of the time. The Cardinals eventually need his lefty bat in the heart of the order, but he should start out at “second leadoff”, batting ninth for the Cardinals. He would be fully able to play center on another team, but won’t displace Ankiel. If Schumaker doesn’t work out at second base, there’s some danger that Rasmus will play full time at Triple-A to start the year.

The extra outfielder roles will be manned capably by future rocket scientist Brian Barton and Mather (once Glaus returns), giving LaRussa some right-handed looks against tough left-handed pitching. Barton’s the better defender, but the starting three are excellent defensively anyway. Chris Duncan will see time, as well.

Starting Rotation

Regardless of all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the 2008 bullpen, the Cardinals 2009 season will be decided right here. If the Cubs stay healthy, the Cardinals need both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright to pitch at their best, or at least at their healthiest. Fortunately for Redbirds fans, these two are good. Expect ERAs in the 3.50-4.00 range from both. The next three starters are the type of veterans that Duncan has worked magic with time and again. Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Piniero all have career ERAs around 4.50, and it seems reasonable for all three to be better than that in 2009, though Piniero’s 2009 was shaky. In the likely event that any of the starting five break down, things are pretty bleak, with the queue being something like: Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth, Kyle McClellan, and possibly prospect Clayton Mortensen after he proves himself ready in Triple-A.

Bullpen

Probably the most important name for the bullpen is Dave Duncan. He will have to show the judgment that has earned him his elite pitching coach reputation. The most promising arm is Chris Perez, who needs to drop a BB/9 innings off his 2008 rate (4.75) to become a Brad Lidge-type closer. Converted catcher Jason Motte burst onto the scene in 2008. If he keeps throwing strikes, he could be effective (even if his fastball is “flat”). Josh Kinney is a GDP waiting to happen, and Ryan Franklin and Kyle McClellan are okay. Dennys Reyes, Royce Ring, and Trever Miller will vie for the two lefty roles that Duncan is so adept at spotting, as Mozeliak failed to meet LaRussa’s request to acquire Brian Fuentes.

Around the Horn With the St. Louis Cardinals

Best Case Scenario…

Carpenter and Wainwright are healthy, while Duncan pulls the strings on a no-name bullpen to preserve leads. Schumaker and Greene transform an offensively moribund middle infield while Rasmus emerges and Ludwick maintains his gains.. en route to a 900-run season and 100 wins with a potent one-two starting combo for the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario…

Carpenter’s arm goes “pop” on Opening Day. Wainwright gets confused by the back and forth shuffling from the bullpen, and proves to be a five-inning starter. Meanwhile, too many “ole!” plays by Schumaker leads LaRussa to pick up Juan Castro to play second base. (Or some guy he saw on the Korean National team in the WBC.) Worse still, Pujols has to have surgery, and Billy Beane calls up Mark Shapiro to play soccer with a Ryan Ludwick voodoo doll out of spite, causing him to lose whatever mojo he found in 2008. Bullpen “luck” improves, but none of the young arms turn out to be very good, leaving the Cardinals with just 75 wins.

Breakthrough Performance…
Colby Rasmus

Ready to Rebound…
Khalil Greene

2008 was so bad, he may need to be exhumed first. Even playing in a home park which killed his stats, he’s a career .248/.304/.427 hitter.

Ready to Disappoint…
Jason Motte

He throws about as hard as anyone, and will be a good test of the old saying: “It doesn’t matter how hard a guy throws, if it’s straight.” We think hitters will catch on his 90% fastball “repertoire”, and that his constant stream of 97-MPH fastballs won’t continue to blow hitters away.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

LaRussa wins Manager of the Year.

Be Shocked If…

The Cardinals use the same lineup three times in a row. LaRussa’s one of the most hyperactive managers about moving guys around in the lineup, constantly tailoring it to best take advantage of the day’s starter.

In the Next Three Years…

Mozeliak is largely unproven. The team has long been very “now”-oriented, getting LaRussa whatever he says he needs. News this offseason suggests that Mozeliak and LaRussa don’t work hand-in-glove like Jocketty and LaRussa did. With former NASA engineer and fantasy baseball player Sig Mejdal employed as “Senior Quantitative Analyst”, the Cardinals seem to be one of the more progressive teams when it comes to embracing unconventional approaches to get a winning edge. In general, they should be competitive in years wehn they have a top starter or two, with Albert keeping them above .500 even when they don’t (as in 2008). And with Brett Wallace and some promising arms in the wings, the talent pool isn’t running dry.

“Silent N”?…

When taking the Sporcle Baseball Hall of Fame Quiz, it’s easy to forget the second “N” in Red Schoendienst’s name.

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17 down, 13 to go. Here’s who we’ve covered so far:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins

Tomorrow — More bird watching with Andy Spear and the Toronto Blue Jays preview.