Posted by Bill Baer on Monday, March 16, 2009 at 9:10 am

The Tampa Bay Rays weren’t the only team from the Sunshine State to surprise the baseball world. The Florida Marlins improved by 13 games and were within two games of first in the National League East as late as August 13th. Unlike the Rays, the Marlins faded down the stretch but posted their third highest win total in their short franchise history. Despite their positive strides, no one showed in south Florida to watch and the Marlins posted baseball’s lowest attendance numbers. BDD’s Bill Baer gives us the scoop on this year’s Marlins and if there’s reason for Floridians to leave the beach and take in a game. Read on for a quick look at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Florida Marlins.

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Florida Marlins

‘08 Record: 84-77, 3rd in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 81-80 (+3)
Current PECOTA Projection: 70-92, 5th in NL East

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2008 Recap

The Marlins once again overcame a young roster, low expectations, and by far Major League Baseball’s lowest payroll. Unsurprisingly, their payroll topped out at $21,811,500 according to USAToday.com. Tampa Bay’s payroll, baseball’s second-cheapest team, was more than double the Marlins at $43,820,597.

Among National League teams, the Marlins’ hitters had the fourth-lowest average age at an even 28, while the pitchers had the second-lowest at 26.6, with only Pittsburgh’s staff beating them by one-tenth of a year.

Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, heroes from 2006, combined to make only 24 starts in 2008. Johnson saw some success in his limited action (118 ERA+ in 14 starts) but Sanchez couldn’t recapture the magic he once hand when he threw a no-hitter on September 6, 2006, as he could only muster a 76 ERA+.

With an offense that featured Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, the Marlins were able to swat their way over .500 as their pitching staff ranked 11th in the NL in runs per game. Ramirez found himself in MVP talks, eventually finishing 11th in the voting despite a slash line of .301/.400/.540 as waell as 35 stolen bases in 47 attempts (74.5%). Uggla also had a fine season, smacking 32 homers with a 128 OPS+.

The ‘08 Marlins were also the beneficiaries of the resurgence of Jorge Cantu. Cantu had an impressive 2005 season with Tampa Bay, hitting 28 dingers and driving in 117 runs, but struggled to produce in the following two seasons with an OPS+ of 80 and 79. Last season, Cantu was able to nearly reproduce his ‘05 season, solidifying the middle of the Marlins’ lineup.

On the pitching side of things, Ricky Nolasco broke out with an excellent campaign. He missed significant time in ‘07 due to right elbow inflammation and started the ‘08 season in the bullpen. Nolasco made only two appearances out of the ‘pen as a long reliever — scoreless stints of three and two and two-thirds innings — before being shuffled into the starting rotation where he eventually flourished after a rough start.

Nolasco put up a 5.52 ERA in his first 11 starts of ‘08 and showed a lot of inconsistency. It seemed like he’d follow up a bad start with a great one, then follow that up with another clunker. Things clicked on June 10 in Philadelphia. From that point on, Nolasco had a 2.83 ERA in 21 starts and more than 146 innings. Of those 21, starts only two were not quality starts (6 innings, no more than three earned runs) and he reached at least the seventh inning 13 times.

Rookie Chris Volstad also broke out with a 148 ERA+ in 14 starts. Volstad made his Major League debut out of the bullpen on June 6 in Colorado with two scoreless innings. He then made his first career start against the Dodgers on the 11th, nearly notching a complete game shutout. Volstad earned the win but allowed a ninth inning run to spoil the shutout. Volstad failed to go five innings just once in 14 starts, a boost for the bullpen.

Matt Lindstrom was another player who established himself in ‘08. He had a great ‘07 season but considering how fickle relief pitchers are, there was doubt he could replicate his success. Brandishing the league’s fastest fastball (avg. 97 MPH), Lindstrom had similar success despite a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate.

2009 Outlook

PECOTA isn’t high on the Marlins in ‘09 and neither am I. Why? They’re simply not as talented as they were last season. Check out who they lost and who they brought over in the offseason (“Value Wins” found on player pages on FanGraphs):

The Marlins didn’t patch any holes and they don’t have a lot of talent ready to take over. Outfielder Cameron Maybin dazzled in 32 September at-bats last year and should be a ‘09 NL Rookie of the Year candidate, and Dallas McPherson looks to take over for Mike Jacobs at first after hitting 42 homers at Triple-A Albuquerque last year. McPherson will compete with Gaby Sanchez for the everyday job. But other than that, the Marlins essentially stood pat and that’s why the projections are so pessimistic about them going forward.

Considering every other team got significantly stronger except the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, the Marlins have an extremely tough task in trying to emerge as the division winner. The Mets patched their glaring weakness by adding two of baseball’s best relievers in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, the Braves added three great arms to their rotation with Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Kenshin Kawakami, and the Nationals added slugger Adam Dunn along with ex-Marlins Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

After an impressive rookie campaign from John Baker, the Marlins didn’t re-sign Matt Treanor. Baker put up a slash line of .299/.392/.447, good for a 121 OPS+. Pretty good for a catcher. Baker wasn’t as good as Treanor at throwing out base runners but he should improve with more playing time.

The Fish will use Mike Rabelo as backup to Baker. Rabelo isn’t much offensively but is a solid defender.

Infield

Will Dallas McPherson finally get his shot as an everyday Major Leaguer? He’ll be competing with fellow prospect Gaby Sanchez for the rights to first base. If McPherson does win out, look for D-Mac to make an immediate power impact, driving in Hanley Ramirez over and over and over again.

Second base is Dan Uggla’s. The projections see his on-base percentage staying roughly the same but none of them project his slugging to be over .500 again. In fact, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and Oliver projections (all found at FanGraphs) dropping not only below ‘08 levels, but below ‘07 levels as well. I don’t buy it!

Who are the Marlins going to put at shortstop? Some “Hanley” guy. Yeah, only one of the most impressive young players in the game. Now 25, Ramirez has established himself as one of the most versatile players in the game. Last year, he led the team in home runs AND stolen bases AND batting average AND walks (AND subsequently OBP AND SLG). Oh yeah, and he significantly improved his fielding from a -19.1 UZR/150 to a -0.3. An NL MVP award next season is not out of the question for the kid.

Jorge Cantu will stick at third base for the Fish. Wes Helms will take over if Cantu gets spot starts at first against lefties. I wouldn’t expect quite the same offensive production from Cantu in ‘09 as he had last year, but he should be around league-average anyway.

Outfield

The Marlins are essentially set in the outfield. Cameron Maybin is in center field, Cody Ross has left field, and Jeremy Hermida has right field.

As mentioned, Maybin, who came to the Marlins from Detroit in the big Dontrelle Willis/Miguel Cabrera trade, figures to be a top dog in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Not only does he pack an offensive punch, he’s fast and good with the glove so his value extends well beyond what he does with the bat.

Ross should be a solid left fielder for the Marlins. Last year, he combined an .804 OPS with an overall 18.7 UZR/150 amongst the three outfield spots. If Ross can draw a few more walks and play above-average defense, he should once again be worth between three and four wins to his team.

Once a lauded prospect, Hermida has disappointed at the Major League level with a .779 OPS and a career -6.8 UZR/150 in right field. Hermida has shown flashes of brilliance with a slug-heavy .870 OPS in ‘07 along with close-to-average defense in right. The Bill James and CHONE projections are mostly optimistic and see him finishing ‘09 with an OPS over .800, partially due to increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate.

Starting Rotation

The Marlins basically have their five-man rotation set with Ricky Nolasco, Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller. Sanchez and Miller were disappointing last season but both have the stuff to excel at the Major League level. It would not be surprising if the Marlins emerged with one of the better rotations in the league.

Bullpen

The offseason wasn’t kind to the Marlins’ bullpen.

The Kevin Gregg trade with the Chicago Cubs left the Marlins without a closer. Fortunately, they have a flame-throwing righty to step right up and take the spot in Matt Lindstrom. As mentioned, Lindstrom has the fastest fastball in baseball with the ability to get it up to 100. Compared to ‘07, Lindstrom’s peripherals in ‘08 took a hit. The guy clearly has the ability to dominate Major League hitting one inning at a time.

The Fish also saw Justin Miller, Joe Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, and Doug Waechter leave. The only constants from last season are Lindstrom and lefties Renyel Pinto and Taylor Tankersley. They also added Leo Nunez and Scott Proctor. That means there are two spots left in the bullpen and the Marlins have a bunch of guys competing for it.

Around the Horn With the Florida Marlins

Best Case Scenario…

Maybin piles on his brief success from lasty year. McPherson supplies the Marlins’ lineup with even more power. Nolasco continues to mow down the opposition. Han-Ram has yet another MVP-caliber season. Lindstrom transitions effortlessly and successfully into the role of closer.

Ghastly injuries to star players riddle the Phillies, Mets, and Braves leaving the top of the NL East to anyone willing to reach for it.

Worst Case Scenario…

Nolasco’s ‘08 season was a fluke. Sanchez can’t find himself again. Maybin isn’t as good as we thought. McPherson finds himself unable to handle MLB pitching. The downward trend of Lindstrom’s peripherals spell disaster for him in ‘09. Injuries abound for the other guys.

Breakthrough Performance…
Dallas McPherson

McPherson wins NL Rookie of the Year honors. It’s typically easier to win awards if you’re a power hitter as opposed to a speedy gap-to-gap hitter with good defense like Maybin. If McPherson wins the first base job and puts up a .275/.350/.475 season with 30 dingers and 90 rib-eyes, he should be a lock to win the award. Astonishingly, as optimistic as those numbers sound, they are not at all out of the realm of McPherson’s potential.

Ready to Rebound…
Anibal Sanchez

That no-hitter in ‘06 couldn’t have been just a fluke. He may very well be the difference between the Marlins struggling to hit 75 wins or ascending to towards the top of the division.

Ready to Disappoint…
Matt Lindstrom

It’s hard enough to simply go from setting up a closer to being a closer. Despite that awesome fastball of his, Lindstrom’s peripherals took a downward turn from ‘07 and ‘08 and it’s cause for concern. He has a ton of potential but needs to boost his strikeout rate and lower his walk rate.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Marlins win the division… or fail to reach 70 wins. This team could go either way. It can get ugly real fast or they can become a powerhouse. They’re much more likely to sit under .500 but every time there is doubt cast on them, they find some way to surprise.

Be Shocked If…

McPherson doesn’t win the starting job at first base. Gaby is a hell of a prospect, but you just can’t let a guy who hit 40 homers in the Minors last season rot on the bench in the Majors or return for more Minor League work.

In the Next Three Years…

The Marlins can become the class of the NL East. They have more young talent than any other division team and that talent is prime at that. The Phillies and Mets are relatively old and the Braves are in a weird position as they have some good young talent that should pop next season, if not some time in ‘09, but they’ll soon be dealing with a slew of older players heading into life beyond baseball, including Chipper Jones.

Team Song…

Soundgarden’s “Fell on Black Days”. The song is about generally being a good person and not getting rewarded for it. The Marlins could be a good team and still finish fourth in the division because the competition is just that good. The Phillies and Mets could both win 90+ games and the Braves are probably better than a .500 team.

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16 down, 14 to go… here’s a link to the previous 15:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians and Arizona Diamondbacks

Tomorrow — Rob McQuown goes bird watching with the Saint Louis Cardinals preview.