Posted by Michael Street on Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 1:48 pm

Manny Ramirez dominated the NL West headlines in the second half of the season but the Arizona Diamondbacks and their fast start — 20-8 with a 6.5 game division lead on May 1 — were the story of the first half . Then, the D-backs unraveled and slowly slipped back to the West pack. It took until September 5 for the Dodgers to catch Arizona and the second place D-backs sputtered to a near .500 record. Does BDD’s Michael Street think they are ready to bounce back in 2009? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Arizona Diamondbacks

‘08 Record: 82-80, 2nd in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 82-80 (Even)
Current PECOTA Projection: 87-75, 2nd in NL West

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2008 Recap

Diamondbacks fans will remember 2008 as the year the Dodgers got their dreadlocked savior Manny Ramirez and surged while Arizona faded, finally coughing up the lead September 6, never to regain it.

Even though they lost the lead in September, the D-backs’ numerical losses were all in August. Their pitching and hitting actually improved from August to September — Los Angeles just improved even more and never had that August swoon:

Things might have been different if Arizona had been at full strength for the stretch run. They lost Eric Byrnes to two torn hamstrings at the end of June and Orlando “O-Dog” Hudson to a dislocated wrist on August 9. Justin Upton missed nearly two months with a strained oblique muscle, then a few weeks more when a pick-off throw conked him in the noggin. Chad Tracy, returning from knee surgery, didn’t play at full strength all year.

Pitching was a bright spot for Arizona… at least at the top of the rotation. Brandon Webb was in the Cy Young race until the wheels fell off in August and September. He still finished with a very nice 22-7 record with a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Danny Haren peaked in June and July and also faded late. His 16-8, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP season was also strong. Randy Johnson surprisingly held up all season, ending with an 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP line. Doug Davis made a courageous comeback from thyroid cancer early in the season but registered his a typically average season: 6-8, 4.38 ERA, 1.53 WHIP.

The bullpen was also a mix of good and bad. Brandon Lyon blew five saves, recorded an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and eventually lost the closer job to Chad Qualls. Qualls did much better, finishing with six saves and career bests in ERA (2.81) and WHIP (1.07). Jon Rauch, brought in to stabilize the bullpen, did just the opposite. He stunk up the joint with a 6.56 ERA and 1.54 WHIP while coughing up six longballs in only 23 innings.

Despite all this, they only finished two games behind Los Angeles and held first place for most of the season. Who knows what might have happened if all the pieces came together.

2009 Outlook

The “Baby ‘backs” are one of the best young, well-rounded teams in the game. It could all come together at any time. They’ll still have to battle an equally good team in Los Angeles and San Francisco could give them some trouble. With Colorado fading into the West and San Diego likely to remain one of the worst teams in the National League, the NL West is poised to be a tight two-team race between the Dodgers and D-backs.

The one significant addition was Felipe Lopez at second base while the big losses were Adam Dunn and Hudson, but nobody expected Arizona to re-sign either one. Otherwise, this is largely last year’s team.

With several young pitchers locked up to long deals, the Diamonbacks are going to learn to grow up together. They still have to climb over the Dodgers — another strong young team with excellent pitching — but the weak NL West should make Arizona competitive, if not dominant, all year long.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

After missing time with that infamous fractured testicle, Chris Snyder crushed balls (baseballs, that is) all year long, with 16 home runs and 22 doubles. He should continue to hit for power at a good, if not amazing, rate. When he’s not behind the dish, look for Miguel Montero to also hit well but with less pop. Both can handle themselves well behind the plate and the pitching staff should continue to improve as Snyder continues to learn the league’s hitters.

Infield

First base is one of the questions in Arizona. Chad Tracy is currently listed as the first-sacker but Conor Jackson can also play there. For now, CoJack is in left field, at least until Eric Byrnes returns to full strength. They also brought back Tony Clark, though he won’t get more than an occasional start.

Since Tracy smashes righties and can play third and third baseman Mark Reynolds does great but only against lefties, a Reynolds-Tracy platoon at third would make sense, with CoJack at first and Byrnes in left. But until Byrnes can play regularly that’s not going to happen. If and when he does return to the starting lineup, expect the dominoes to start to fall. Look for Tracy and Jackson to get the bulk of the time at first until then.

Felipe Lopez is the second baseman and leadoff hitter of the present after signing a one-year deal. He’s no O-Dog, but he’ll do for now.

One of their great young stars is shortstop Stephen Drew, who looks like a healthier version of his big brother J.D.. He can pick it defensively and should split time between the two and three holes in the lineup. His power will continue to develop in either spot.

The biggest lowlight from last year might be Reynolds breaking Ryan Howard’s strikeout record with 204 of his own. Reynolds has power but clearly his batting eye needs a ton of work. If he continues his whiff-tastic ways, look for that Reynolds-Tracy platoon at the hot corner.

Outfield

Byrnes and his hamstrings are the key here. Manager Bob Melvin insists Byrnes is his fourth outfielder making him the highest paid backup outfielder not named Juan Pierre. Unless he gets traded, expect to see Byrnes in left field most of the time by the All-Star break. Until then, look for Jackson in left, likely hitting cleanup in spite of his lack of power — his .630 April slugging in 2008 was a mirage.

Many projected center fielder Chris Young to build on his 32 home run 2007. Instead, he disappointed with 22 homers, losing 24 points of slugging. He also gained 20 points in on-base percentage, a welcome improvement. If Melvin alternates him with Drew in the three-spot as promised, Young might leverage his power into a bounceback season.

Justin Upton will be just 21 years old in 2009. His combination of power, speed and defense makes scouts slobber all over their clipboards. He’s got a lot of upside but also needs to moderate his strikeouts. He’ll hit lower in the order to start the season but there’s no reason why he shouldn’t one day hit right in the middle of it.

Starting Rotation

Arizona’s top two starters are among the best in baseball. When Max Scherzer slots in behind them, Arizona will reach its full potential. Until then, look for Brandon Webb to continue to shine at the top with that nasty sinker inducing groundouts galore. More of a strikeout guy, Danny Haren is entering his prime years and offers rock-solid peripherals.

Things drop off sharply after this. Doug Davis should give another average, workmanlike effort with a bit of value as a southpaw who gets lefties and righties out. Think of Jon Garland as Davis from the other side of the plate. He’s been experimenting with adding a curve and a cutter to his three-pitch repertoire but that shouldn’t make him more than just average. Scherzer starts in the last rotation spot, a reflection of Arizona’s desire to limit his innings, not his ability.

Bullpen

New closer Chad Qualls has a great package of endgame skills. He can strike guys out or make them hit ground balls and has awesome control. If Jon Rauch can figure out what went wrong with him at the end of 2008, he should be set-up for Qualls. If not, look for Tony Pena or Tom Gordon to pitch the eighth. Gordon is returning from an elbow injury and may start the season on the DL. He’ll bring a stable veteran presence to the pen whether he’s in the game or not.

Around the Horn With the Arizona Diamondbacks

Best Case Scenario…

Manny keeps being Manny for the Dodgers — meaning he fractures the clubhouse spirit, plays indifferent defense, and pouts when Torre sits him. Arizona’s young core coalesces around a strong, solid pitching staff. The D-backs cruise to the playoffs and the Series. Not entirely unlikely.

Worst Case Scenario…

Their low-OBP ways catch up with them and the Diamondbacks struggle all season long with strikeouts. They win 40% of their games with Haren and Webb and struggle otherwise. San Francisco surges, the Dodgers play solidly, and Arizona battles with Colorado for third place.

Breakthrough Performance…
Conor Jackson

There’s a bunch of young guys who could break through on this team, but Jackson has the patience and contact skills to do it. He’s never going to hit a ton of homers, but putting him in the cleanup spot might make him more aggressive.

Ready to Rebound…
Chris Young

Young can’t help but do better than he did in 2008. He’s got the power to hit at least 30 home runs, though he won’t do it with a strong batting average. Putting him between Drew and Jackson could be the ticket to lighting a fire under him.

Ready to Disappoint…
Felipe Lopez

Lopez doesn’t have the on-base skills to leadoff, with a batting eye (BB:K ratio) around .50 for his career. He’ll be hitting ninth when Byrnes returns.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Haren and Webb battle for the Cy Young.

Be Shocked If…

Arizona finishes in third place or below.

In the Next Three Years…

Haren, Webb, Young, and Drew are all locked up will into the future, so Arizona should continue to improve. They have young pitching in the Minors but not many bats. They’ll need to lock up Upton and maybe Jackson to long-term deals. Diamondbacks fans should expect plenty of excitement and winning in the years to come.

The Next Ballpark Name Is…

The D-backs have played in “BankOne Ballpark” and “Chase Field” after Chase took over BankOne. Who’s next? With government bailouts surely imminent, welcome the Diamondbacks of 2010 to… FDIC Field!

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Halfway there. Here’s a link to the previous 14 previews:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians

Tomorrow — Bill Baer reels in the Florida Marlins