Posted by Paul Bugala on Saturday, March 14, 2009 at 9:14 am

In 2007, the Cleveland Indians tied for the best record in baseball before losing in the ALCS to the Boston Red Sox in seven games. No wonder expectations were so high in 2008. The Indians fell well short of those high expectations but rallied with a winning record in August and September to once again give Cleveland high hopes for the 2009 season. Can the Indians bounce back and compete in the AL Central? BDD’s Paul Bugala shares his thoughts on the matter. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Cleveland Indians.

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Cleveland Indians

‘08 Record: 81-81, 3rd in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 85-77 (-4)
Current PECOTA Projection: 85-77, 1st in AL Central

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2008 Recap

The Indians finished the year with the American League Cy Young Award winner at the top of their rotation. Grady Sizemore won his first Silver Slugger, became the second Indian to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases, won his second straight Gold Glove and was an All-Star for the third straight season. In May, Cleveland pitchers threw the most consecutive scorelss innings of any team since 1974. Plus, the organization restocked its farm system with two big trades that yielded elite prospects.

So, why the long faces on the North Coast?

The Indians 2008 season fell victim to high expectations caused by falling one win short of the World Series in 2007. Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez missed significant time. Fausto Carmona, Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt could not repeat their 2007 success. And Joe Borowski was a big leaguer for one season too many. By July 7, ace CC Sabathia was Milwaukee-bound and Indians fans prepared to be disappointed again.

2009 Outlook

The rotation — led by Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona — could be devastating or an object lesson in small sample sizes. Also, consider that the Indians are rolling the dice slotting Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes in as the team’s third and fourth starters and its hard not to get nervous. Of course, David Huff and/or Zach Jackson may be pleasant surprises and Kerry Wood should calm some nerves in the ninth.

An offense anchored by Grady Sizemore as he enters his prime should bounce back from a disappointing season. Expecting a return to the Pronk of old may be a mistake. However, something resembling a return to form from Victor Martinez is reasonable. Mark DeRosa will be an offensive upgrade at third base, and Jhonny Peralta is raking in Goodyear.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Victor Martinez may be entering his decline but the emergence of Kelly Shoppach as top-tier backup with power should keep folks from noticing. Of course, Martinez is keeping the tools of ignorance warm for heir apparent Carlos Santana who will spend most of the year at Double-A Akron.

Infield

Until Matt LaPorta, Nick Weglarz or Beau Mills are ready for “The Show”, Indians can expect replacement level or so offense at first base from Ryan Garko and Martinez.

Asdrubal Cabrera was one of the stories of the Indians’ 2007 playoff run but he slumped and spent time in Triple-A in 2008. AsdruCab’s defense will keep him in the lineup most days, so his confidence should build in a low-pressure spot at the bottom of the batting order.

The rumored shift of Jhonny Peralta to third base, Cabrera to shortstop and Mark DeRosa to second has lost momentum. Still, DeRosa can’t help but be an upgrade over the cast of characters that manned the hot corner for the Indians in 2008.

If Peralta can bottle a little of the lightning he’s found during Spring Training his offense may continue to make up for his lacking defense at short.

If he’s lucky, Josh Barfield may be Jamey Carroll someday.

Outfield

With the exception of a dicey 2004 season, Ben Francisco has been the player you saw in 2008 since he joined the Cleveland organization in 2002. Count on an OPS around .775 and above average defense in left field.

Grady Sizemore hitting .268 in 2008 is a great argument for the meaninglessness of batting average. Watch out once Sizemore figures out how to hit left-handers, which he probably will and soon.

On a championship-caliber Indians team, Shin-Soo Choo would be an excellent fourth outfielder with a great arm, good speed and strong bat against lefties. This isn’t a championship-caliber Indians team.

Remember when the platoon of David Dellucci and Jason Michaels was going to be the solution to the Indians’ left field problem? Oh wait, that was last year. In 2009, Trevor Crowe will begin a respectable Major League career as a reserve outfielder.

Starting Rotation

Cliff Lee’s improved command is probably for real. Even with the improvement a 5.00 K/BB will be hard to maintain and he wasn’t the picture of consistency in the Minors. If you remember how Fausto Carmona responded to his abysmal debut in 2006, you know he is capable of a comeback. As mentioned before, it’s hard to imagine Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes staying healthy all year.

Bullpen

Barring injury, Kerry Wood should be an elite closer. Of course, you already knew that. Like Cabrera, Jensen Lewis caught most Indians fans attention during the 2007 playoffs. His very good change-up, sinking fastball and curve should help him give Indians some pleasant memories. The biggest story in the bullpen may be Adam Miller… if he can finally stay healthy.

Around the Horn With the Cleveland Indians

Best Case Scenario…

The rotation stays healthy and does what it can. The Indians trade from their surplus of first base prospects and Shoo or Francisco for a credible corner outfielder. Pronk’s shoulder doesn’t disintegrate. The Indians lose in six or seven to the Red Sox in the ALCS.

Worst Case Scenario…

Lee and Carmona don’t pitch like they are capable. Kelvin De La Cruz is rushed to the Majors. Martinez’s and Travis Hafner’s injuries begin a rapid drop-off. The unemployment rate in Cleveland hits 15% and I lose my job.

Breakthrough Performance…
Jhonny Peralta

Grady Sizemore will improve but you were counting on that. So, let’s say that Peralta makes his age 27 season memorable.

Ready to Rebound…
Fausto Carmona

As noted previously, this isn’t the first adversity Carmona has faced in his young career.

Ready to Disappoint…
Cliff Lee

If you place a lot of value on Lee’s 22 wins then you probably haven’t read this far. Still, Lee is likely to give up more home runs in 2009 and probably post an ERA in the threes.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

David Huff doesn’t become a decent back-end rotation starter during the second half of the season.

Be Shocked If…

Hafner starts a game at first or reaches 500 at bats.

In the Next Three Years…

The Indians won’t win a World Series. Grady Sizemore will win an MVP. The Indians’ corner outfielders will come from outside the organization. Carlos Santana will begin a career that will see him become a better all-around catcher than Victor Martinez. Nick Weglarz will elicit more than a few Jim Thome comparisons.

Fearless Prediction For 2009…

Most people will continue to call Progressive Field the Jake and Cleveland will finally realize how hard it is to listen to Tom Hamilton call a baseball game.

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Nearly two weeks of previews in the books… here’s a link to the past 13:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers

Tomorrow — Michael Street dishes on the Arizona Diamondbacks