Posted by Matt Sisson on Friday, March 13, 2009 at 7:35 am

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The Texas Rangers had the most impressive offense in baseball but lacked the support it needed thanks to the game’s worst pitching and defense. An inactive offseason might mean more of the same in 2009. BDD’s Matt Sisson shares his thoughts on how the latest version of the Rangers will fare. Read on for a quick look at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Texas Rangers.

——————–

Texas Rangers

‘08 Record: 79-83, 2nd in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (+3)
Current PECOTA Projection: 72-90, T-3rd in AL West

——————–

2008 Recap

If you think pitching and defense win baseball games… this isn’t your team. The 2008 Rangers flirted with .500 baseball for most of the season and, at times, played above their heads. Their 79-83 record was good enough for second place in the American League West. Finishing second may seem like an achievement but if you take a step back, it’s easy to see not only was the division the worst in the American League and the Rangers finished 21 games out of first while being outscored 901-967 which equates to an expected win-loss record of 76-86.

The bright spot for the Rangers was their offense. They scored more runs than any team in baseball and had a hitter VORP of +267.0 which dominated the rest of the AL. How dominant is a +267 hitter VORP? Behind the Rangers in the AL were the Red Sox at +239.1 and the White Sox at +156.5. In their division, the Angels posted a +96.3 VORP, the Mariners posted a +50.1 VORP and the A’s posted a -29.6 VORP. Combined, the Angels, Mariners and A’s were -150.2 when compared to the Rangers. Pretty impressive.

As good as their offense was, their pitching was equally bad. Texas hurlers posted a -8.8 pitcher VORP — the only negative pitcher VORP in the Majors. The Baltimore Orioles were the next lowest in the AL at +81.1 and their closest Major League counterpart were perennial bottom dwelling Pittsburgh Pirates who were still able to post a +2.8 pitcher VORP. Things can only improve for the Rangers pitching staff after 2008.

2009 Outlook

Baseball Prospectus projects a few less wins for the Rangers in 2009 and a third place finish. With the loss of Milton Bradley and a handful of other non-impact contributors, it is unlikely for Texas to repeat their offensive success. Conversely, the Texas pitching staff is just as likely to improve for no other reason than they simply cannot be as bad as they were last season. The Rangers have yet to transition to a winning team but they should make progress and the young prospects that litter the farm system should begin to make an impact starting in 2009 if they did not already.

The top 11 prospects list in the Ranger farm system boasts six pitchers including #1 ranked RHP Neftali Feliz and #3 ranked LHP Derek Holland, considered to be five-star prospects according to BP’s Kevin Goldstein. Feliz is said to be on the brink of making the Major League club and throws in the upper 90s, sometimes reaching triple digits with his fastball. Holland is another hard-throwing arm with the potential to make the roster at some point in 2009. The lefty can touch 99 on the gun.

With a rotation that boasts the names Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Harrison and Feldman, it would not surprise me if more than one of these guys lost their spot to one of the talented young arms on the farm. It won’t end well for the 2009 Rangers but it will end better than it did in 2008. Texas will continue to improve as they transition into a future contender.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

The Rangers catching situation is a problem many teams would not mind having… more options than available positions. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who will be 23 on Opening Day, is the Rangers best offensive option and likely to get the bulk of the playing time. Taylor Teagarden, known more for his defense, will back up Saltalamacchia and according to Heater Magazine’s Radar Tracker will split time in a 65/35 split. Saltalamacchia is projected to post a +11.4 VORP while Teagarden is at -0.1. The Rangers third option, Maximilliono Ramirez, is likely to become their most promising offensive catcher of the future. With a projected +0.8 VORP, Ramirez could see more time at DH due to his excellent bat rather than catcher. The log jam creates an interesting situation that could see one of the three in a different uniform before the end of the season.

Infield

The Texas infield of Chris Davis at first, Ian Kinsler at second, Elvis Andrus at shortstop, and Michael Young at third is likely to be one of the best hitting infields in the game.

Davis, a serious power threat, could really explode in 2009. He hit 76 long balls over his last two seasons including 17 at the Major League level.

Kinsler has been thought of as a potential MVP candidate for a number of years but has been derailed by injury in each of the last three seasons. A plus runner and decent fielder, Kinsler provides offense out of the leadoff spot and from a position on the field many teams fill with a defensive type player.

Andrus made a bit of a splash earlier in the offseason as the guy who caused Young to shift from shortstop to third base. Just 20 years old, Andrus is considered an excellent defender and should be able to be a .300 hitter. He won’t hit for much power but if he can improve his walk rate and get on base a bit more, he should provide plenty of RBI opportunities for the sluggers around him.

Rounding out the infield is Young, the club’s former shortstop. Now at third, Young was hindered for most of last season with a broken finger and other injuries. With Young poised for a bounce back in 209 out of the two-hole following Kinsler leading off, Josh Hamilton should have plenty of people to drive in.

Outfield

Anchored by Hamilton, the Texas outfield is one that can be defined by the word risk. David Murphy, a borderline starter who struggles against lefties, could be a positive with Texas if limited to appearances against right-handed pitching.

Hamilton, a huge offensive force, saw his rookie season shortened by injury and a 2008 season that started off red hot slowly fade at the perils of a long season following an epic performance at the Home Run Derby. He has the stuff to be an MVP and could this could be the year where goes end to end. We’ve seen other players like Kevin Youkilis struggle to put together a full season of excellence but once they do, all you can do is say, “Wow!”

Nelson Cruz, the Ranger right fielder, was finally able to transfer his success in the Minors to the Major League level in 2008. After flopping in two previous tries at the Majors and going unclaimed on waivers, Cruz earned Pacifc Coast League MVP honors and another chance with Texas. In 133 plate appearances in 2008, Cruz posted seven homers, 26 RBI and hit .330, earning him the starting spot in right for 2009.

Designated Hitter

In the last year of his five-year contract, Hank Blalock will serve as the designated hitter and is expected to outperform expectations. After a good start in 2008, Blalock needed surgery to remove a rib that was pressing on some nerves ultimately causing chronic arm soreness. The surgery was a success and when Blalock returned, he picked up where he left off. There’s no reason that success shouldn’t carry over to 2009.

Starting Rotation

There’s not much to be said about the 2009 starting rotation that hasn’t already been said about the 2008 rotation. The staff is led by Kevin Millwood and the #2 guy is Vincente Padilla… you can’t really expect much out of that. Brandon McCarthy is the #3 and can only improve in 2009. Youngster Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman round out the fourth and fifth spots and you can’t expect either to post an ERA under 5.00. The only thing Rangers fans can hope for out of this pitching staff is for Harrison, just 23, to show some improvement or that one of the other regulars loses their spot to make room for Neftali Feliz or Derek Holland.

Bullpen

Frankie Francisco is the lone bright spot in the Ranger bullpen. The rest of the pen is a collection of “has beens” who were once something on another team. Names like Turnbow, Wilson, Donnelly, and Guardado bring name recognition and not much else. Chances are that if the Rangers have a lead in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings, one of these guys will give it up. Unimpressive, at best.

Around the Horn With the Texas Rangers

Best Case Scenario…

Another tremendous offensive year and improved pitching would be the best case. Time is the only thing that can really help the Rangers and a lot more of it needs to go by before the impact players in the Ranger farm system are ready.

Worst Case Scenario…

An epic three-month heat wave of 100+ temps and the economic climate of the country causes no one to show up to watch the team. The Rangers trade away all of their star players in an effort to reduce payroll and former Rangers Chris Young and Edinson Volquez each throw three no-hitters, win 23 games with 250 strikeouts each and tie for the NL Cy Young.

More likey, the hitting declines and the pitching remains the same or gets worse.

Breakthrough Performance…
Josh Hamilton

Believe it or not, Hamilton is ready to put together a complete season. Not only starting hot, he’ll keep it going until the end of the season. Imagine the numbers! Hamilton has worked hard and deserves it.

Ready to Rebound…
Rangers Pitching and Hank Blalock

The starting five can only improve on last year’s numbers and Blalock has rid himself of the injury.

Ready to Disappoint…
Elvis Andrus

More often than not, highly touted prospects who are full of upside fail to meet expectations set forth by the baseball community. Only 20, it’s hard to imagine Andrus lasting the season without a prolonged slump or adjustment period. He’ll need some time to develop and will likely cause some to be disappointed if he is not an All-Star in his first season.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Rangers make a significant in-season trade to get more pitching. With three good catching options and a steady streamline of All-Star caliber first baseman, it would make sense for Texas to give a little offense to gain a little pitching.

Be Shocked If…

Three of the five starters last the season in the rotation.

In the Next Three Years…

Texas has set a plan in place to insure there is a steady infusion of talent coming up through the Minor League system. The benefits of this plan are just beginning to show the fruits of their labor. The Rangers have paid their draft picks more to sign with the organization and re-focused their scouting and development in Latin American. The team’s core offensive players are under contract for several years at a reasonable cost and this combination should give the Rangers the stepping stones to lay the groundwork to perennial postseason appearances.

Final Thoughts…

This year isn’t the year for the Texas Rangers but that might not be said this time next year. 2009 will be a one of great development for Texas and we should have a much better idea of how soon the Rangers can become playoff contenders after this season.

—————

We’re almost halfway there. In addition to the Rangers, here are the 12 other teams BDD has already previewed:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics

Tomorrow — Paul Bugala breaks down the Cleveland Indians