Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Thursday, March 12, 2009 at 4:30 am

GM Billy Beane has been casting his cost-effective magic in northern California for over a decade. After raising the white flag early in 2008 by shipping out Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Mark Kotsay and Marco Scutaro before the season started and Rich Harden and Joe Blanton during the year, the Athletics still had decent pitching but also owned the worst offense in the American League. This offseason Beane and Co. traded for Matt Holliday and signed Orlando Cabrera, Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Giambi to see if their offense can turn things around. Does BDD’s Jeff Lubbers think this will be enough to put the Athletics back into contention? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Oakland Athletics.

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Oakland Athletics

‘08 Record: 75-86, 3rd in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 76-85 (-1)
Current PECOTA Projection: 84-78, 2nd in AL West

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2008 Recap

While 2007 seemed far removed from their 2006 ALCS appearance, 2008 seemed even further away. The A’s were in first place as late as May 11 at 23-16 but went just 52-69 the rest of the way and by late July, settled into third place and stayed there. Additionally, the latest round of trades saw Rich Harden, Joe Blanton and Chad Gaudin leave town.

Simply put, the offense never showed up. The team finished last in the AL in on-base percentage and last in the Majors in slugging percentage. Jack Cust led the team with 33 homers and no other player hit more than 13. Just two regulars — Cust and rookie Ryan Sweeney — posted an OPS+ higher than 100. The pitching kept the team competitive with the league’s fifth lowest ERA highlighted by a bullpen with the second lowest combined ERA. Out of the pen, Brad Ziegler did not allow a run in his first 39 Major League innings and Joey Divine posted an ERA of 0.59 in 45-2/3 innings.

2009 Outlook

It almost seemed like Billy Beane was sick of the yearly Moneyball stories and decided to write a new chapter for his team with the acquisition of Matt Holliday in November. While this was the splashiest move of their offseason, it wasn’t the only one with the “feel good” return of Jason Giambi to Oakland and the signings of Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra.

The moves have fueled talk of a serious run at the Athletics first postseason appearance since 2006. Additional fuel has been added with the Angels step backward (they lost Mark Teixeira) and their unlikelihood to outperform again (11 games according to their Pythagorean Record in 2008) The division should be more competitive and the Athletics have the best shot to unseat the Angels.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

After a solid season (especially for a 24-year-old catcher), Kurt Suzuki remains one of the team’s more valuable commodities. His power dropped in 2008 but his batting average and on-base perecentage rose. Suzuki fits the bill as a low-budget Joe Mauer (a very low-budget Mauer).

Infield

First baseman Daric Barton was the epitome of what went wrong for Oakland in 2008: Offensive potential that fell flat on its face. Despite 84 career plate appearances, Barton got the job out of Spring Training and struggled all year. He’s there again this year but another .675 OPS and he won’t see 523 plate appearances this year.

Overlooked Mark Elllis will remain in Oakland and is under contract for the next two years. In the American League, the talent pool at second base is thin and only one (Robinson Cano) has more home runs than Ellis over the last four years. Still, Ellis is not an offensive powerhouse but the occasional pop and exceptional defense makes him an asset.

Oakland is likely counting its lucky stars they wound up with Orlando Cabrera for a year instead of Rafael Furcal for four years. After missing out on Furcal, the Athletics grabbed Cabrera as the free agent market bottomed out.

Eric Chavez will see time at third base for as long as his deteriorating body allows but, if Spring Training and his last three seasons were any indication, that won’t be for very long.

Newly acquired Nomar Garciaparra has made a legitimate second career out of the “super sub” role and should see time at both first and third base.

Jack Hannahan will also back up the corners. It looked like Beane had swiped another Minor League on-base machine from under the nose of an unsuspecting GM after Hannahan put up solid numbers in a cup of coffee after the Athletics acquired him in 2007. However, he failed to deliver in 2008.

Rounding out the “super subs” is Bobby Crosby who is position-less after the acquisition of Cabrera which might not be a bad thing.

Outfield

Center fielder Ryan Sweeney had a positive season in his first full year in the Majors. That being said, the White Sox gave up on him at the young age of 23. Plus, being the second-most productive batter in the Athletics’ lineup last year isn’t saying much.

Newly acquired Matt Holliday stands to anchor the team with the glove and the bat. Many fans are blindly ecstatic for the arrival of a legitimate superstar but some noticed Holliday’s slight production drop-off from 2007 to 2008. And then there’s the move from Coors Field to the Coliseum.

Jack Cust does a better Adam Dunn impression than Dunn himself. Cust seems to be with the Oakland organization years after he should have been. His “all-or-nothing” approach seems more suited to protect Jason Giambi in the late ’90s than Crosby and Emil Brown, a role he filled too many times last year.

Was it mentioned that a fair number of young Oakland hitters failed to deliver in 2008 after brief solid appearances in 2007? Add right fielder Travis Buck to the list. Out of the starting lineup in 2008, Buck is likely the fourth outfielder.

Designated Hitter

While stories about Jason Giambi’s return to Oakland will hopefully end by the time the regular season starts, his signing was an excellent move for the team, even from a baseball-only perspective. Where else could Giambi sign and be showered with praise rather than avoid the steroid use backlash? Cust will also see time here.

Starting Rotation

The injury concerns about Garciaparra and Chavez are nothing compared to the concerns over Justin Duchscherer’s hip and elbow. Oakland needs him healthy and a repeat of last year’s breakthrough season.

Sean Gallagher’s first round in Oakland following the Harden trade was up and down. The former Cub should get a full season’s worth of starts in 2009 (for better or worse).

Lefthanders Dana Eveland, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez all look to land rotation slots in 2009. Even if Duchscherer remains healthy, the rotation has little stability. That’s not to say the organization is lacking in talent, most of it is just not Major League-ready. However, the A’s are never shy to give playing time to players a little rough around the edges.

Bullpen

Even if the rotation struggles, the bullpen should pick up some of the slack. Between either/both Joey Devine (is an ERA+ of 685 even real?) and Brad Ziegler, the closer position will be well covered and the offseason departure of Huston Street will be minimal. Other contributors included well-traveled Russ Springer, Santiago Casilla, and Michael Wuertz.

Around the Horn With the Oakland Athletics

Best Case Scenario…

The return of Giambi becomes more than a feel good story — it revitalizes the offense and the younger players are able to pick up the slack when the aging veterans become unable to contribute.

Worst Case Scenario…

Starting pitching never comes together and bullpen dependency renders both the starters and relievers ineffective.

Breakthrough Performance…
Sean Gallagher

At just 23, he’ll get more than his fair share of chances to prove his worth to the A’s and make the fans forget about Rich Harden.

Ready to Rebound…
Daric Barton

Almost any decent showing would be a rebound for Barton. If healthy, he should post at least marginally better numbers than he did in 2008.

Ready to Disappoint…
Nomar Garciaparra

Garciaparra’s signing with Oakland will only be a memory by June as he hits the DL for the last time to close out his career.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The A’s fall just short of reaching the Angels for first place. Despite the improvement, the Angels remain better with fewer questions about their rotation than Oakland.

Be Shocked If…

Oakland has rewritten the rule book enough times in the past that fans should be shocked by very little. By the trade deadline they are just as likely to add players and they are to dump them left and right.

In the Next Three Years…

Before he even arrived in Oakland, the story on Holliday was he was a one-year rental. While this remains the most likely of scenarios, it is not set in stone. The compensation draft picks teams get when allowing free agents to sign elsewhere have never been more valuable, at least according to common wisdom throughout the league. As we all know, Beane is not one to follow conventional wisdom. While the familiar if slightly inaccurate “secret” of the team was that the A’s were build with lumbering on-base machines, the true less of Moneyball — to pursue talent other teams ignore or undervalue — will always remain true. Given how far the free agent market has dropped recently, it would not be entirely surprising to see them sign a player or two to a multi-year deal, particularly if other teams remain reluctant to do so.

The caveat to that scenario is the reality that the A’s have seen their Fremont stadium plans evaporate with no sign of leaving McAfee Coliseum any time soon. While it is fully functional, the Coliseum is not the revenue machine that might make a free agent splurge more probable. Also, with Beane rumored to step down in the not-too-distant future, an entirely new story for the organization that doesn’t have to do with a best-selling book may be written.

Over/Under on the Number of Homerless Games It Will Take for the Oakland Press to Ask Jason Giambi About the Golden Thong…

Three… definitely no more than three.

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12 down, 18 to go. Links to all completed previews are below:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals

Tomorrow — Matt Sisson tracks down the Texas Rangers