Posted by Joe Hamrahi on Wednesday, March 11, 2009 at 5:28 am

In 2008, the Kansas City Royals climbed out of the American League Central basement for the first time since 2003. Picking the Royals to finish fourth or higher in the Central in 2009 is all the rage and K.C. has welcomed eight new players to their 40-man roster. Is BDD’s Joe Hamrahi on the Royals Bandwagon? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Kansas City Royals.

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Kansas City Royals

‘08 Record: 75-87, 4th in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 72-90 (+3)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85, 4th in AL Central

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2008 Recap

The Kansas City Royals can hang their hat on one thing… they didn’t finish in last place in 2008. It’s true the Royals finished the year by winning 18 games in September, and it’s true that the Royals won six more games than they did in 2007, but that’s certainly not enough to satisfy General Manager Dayton Moore. Moore comes from a culture that is used to winning every year. He’s not interested in short winning streaks or small improvements. Moore will only be happy when his club is in contention year in and year out.

With first year manager Trey Hillman at the helm, the Royals had their share of problems. The team showed no consistency and fans were often left scratching their heads about having Miguel Olivo DH, Ross Gload play first, and Esteban German man the outfield. Jose Guillen was complaining again (nothing new there.). And while the pitching staff, led by Zack Greinke (13-10, 202 IP, 183 K, 1.28 WHIP) and Gil Meche (14-11, 210 IP, 183 K, 1.32 WHIP), did their best to keep them in games, the offense bordered on pitiful. Only Oakland and Seattle scored fewer runs in the American League and Kansas City was next to last in team home runs in the AL with 120.

The 2008 Royals did boast some star performances and a few surprises as well. In addition to the solid campaigns from Greinke and Meche, Joakim Soria solidified himself as one of the game’s best closers, saving 42 games while sporting an ERA of 1.60 in 63 appearances. Rookie Mike Aviles took over the shortstop position from dreadful Tony Pena Jr. and proceeded to lead the team in hitting with a .325 average. Plus, David DeJesus put together a solid offensive season in centerfield, hitting .307 with an OPS of .818.

2009 Outlook

After a relatively active off-season for Kansas City, the Royals appear to be the “sexy” pick to squeeze out a division title in the American League Central. That doesn’t mean they are a good team. It just means they are better than the rest of the suddenly weak AL Central. While management addressed concerns at first base and centerfield, a lot of what happens in 2009 rests on the shoulders of their young cornerstone players, namely Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Luke Hochevar.

The Royals will need Gordon and Butler to elevate their game and help give the anemic offense a much needed boost. Mike Aviles will have to prove 2008 was not fluke, and Hochevar must give the rotation a solid number three starter to bridge the gap to the strength of the team: The bullpen.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Miguel Olivo and John Buck return to handle the catching duties for Kansas City… if Trey Hillman can refrain from inserting Olivo into the DH slot. The two combined for 21 home runs, 45 doubles, and 89 RBI in 676 at bats in 2008. Buck was dreadful behind the plate, throwing out only 11% of would be base stealers. Olivo, on the other hand, nailed 39% of those who attempted to run on him.

The Royals are committed to giving Olivo more playing time in 2009. Whether or not that is a good thing remains to be seen. Miguel’s defense is certainly solid and he has the potential to hit 20 home runs, but he also swung at more pitches in 2008 than any other player with 300 or more plate appearances.

Infield

The Royals have one of the youngest infields in Major League Baseball. The corners are manned by newly acquired first baseman Mike Jacobs (28-years-old) and Alex Gordon (25). Second base belongs to Alberto Callaspo (26) while Mike Aviles (28) returns to play shortstop.

Jacobs comes to Kansas City fresh off a 32 home runs season in south Florida. While Jacobs brings a power bat the Royals can certainly use, he also carries a lifetime OBP of .318 and might be the worst defensive first baseman in the league.

Callaspo returns for his second season with the Royals after hitting .305 with a .361 OBP in limited time (231 at bats). He gets first shot at being the team’s regular second baseman, but expect Willie Bloomquist (signed as a free agent) to get plenty of looks.

Aviles, the unsung hero of 2008, will try to prove his bat is for real while Gordon continues to try to live up to the hype of being the second overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft and the top collegiate player out of the University of Nebraska.

Ryan Shealy, Ross Gload, and Tony Pena Jr. will be the primary reserves.

Outfield

The 2009 starting outfield figures to have David DeJesus in left, Coco Crisp in center, and Jose Guillen in right. An offseason trade brought Crisp to Kansas City after spending three seasons in Boston. He’s not the prototypical leadoff hitter, but that’s the slot he’ll occupy in the lineup. Crisp brings outstanding defense, terrific speed, and a solid veteran presence to a young Royals team. Mark Teahan will join the rotation as a fourth outfielder if he remains with the club.

Designated Hitter

Billy Butler enters 2009 as the Royals designated hitter. Butler, one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball, slimmed down this winter for what hopes to be a breakout year for the soon to be 23-year-old. Butler rates as the best pure hitter on the team and its potential #3 hitter for years to come. Billy must show he is mature and conditioned enough to make it through a 162-game schedule.

Starting Rotation

It’s Gil Meche, Zack Greinke… then everyone else. The Royals hope Luke Hochevar lives up to the hype that made him the first overall selection in 2006. They’d like to see him and Kyle Davies claim the third and fourth spots in the rotation. Brian Bannister is best suited for the #5 role, but depending on how Hochevar or Davies pitch, could see himself throwing after Greinke. Publicly, the organization has stated that Horacio Ramirez has an opportunity to win a starting job. Don’t count on it.

Bullpen

The strength of the team. We’ve already established that Joakim Soria is one of the best young closers in the game today. He’s been lights out for the Royals the past two seasons, coverting 59 of 66 save opportunities. Setting up Soria will be newly signed Juan Cruz. Kansas City surrendered a second round compensation pick in 2009 in exchange for signing Cruz to a two-year deal with an option for a third. As Moore will tell you, Cruz missed more bats in 2008 than anyone not named Brad Lidge. The 30-year-old Cruz was superb the past three seasons with Arizona, striking out 246 in 208 innings. Kyle Farnsworth also signed a two-year deal this offseason and provides another strikeout punch in the pen. Add in lefty specialists Jimmy Gobble, John Bale, and Horacio Ramirez, and the Royals should receive another strong performance out of their bullpen in 2009.

Around the Horn With the Kansas City Royals

Best Case Scenario…

Gordon and Butler become the starts they’re expected to be. Jacobs hits 30 home runs while Crisp provides the spark at the top of the lineup. Hochevar and Davies take hold of the third and fourth spots in the rotation and provide the staff with the starting pitching it needs to get to Cruz and Soria. The Royals win 85 games and squeeze out the AL Central title.

Worst Case Scenario…

Davies gets hurt, Butler struggles to get going, Hillman starts playing Bloomquist on a regular basis, and Aviles proves that 2008 WAS a fluke. Kansas City succumbs to increased expectations and takes a step backward instead of forward.

Breakthrough Performance…
Alex Gordon

Gordon has shown gradual progress the past few seasons and is poised to break out. .290/.375/.500 with 28 homers, 40 doubles and 105 RBI should not be out of the question.

Ready to Rebound…
Brian Bannister

Bannister doesn’t throw hard, but he’s one of the most diligent pitchers you’ll ever meet. I wouldn’t expect Brian to win more than 10 games, but I don’t expect him to go 9-16 again either. At worst, Bannister should give the staff an innings eater at the number four or five spot in the rotation and keep the Royals in the game for five or six innings.

Ready to Disappoint…
Miguel Olivo

Olivo managed just seven walks in 317 plate appearances in 2008. If he gets in 130 or more games, he may very well make the most outs in the league.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Trey Hillman is fired if the team is seriously underachieving by the All-Star break… or if Teahan is traded to the Yankees to fill in while A-Rod recovers from surgery.

Be Shocked If…

Guillen doesn’t complain about something.

In the Next Three Years…

The Royals will have one of the best infields in baseball (Eric Hosmer, Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Aviles, and Butler) and showcase one of the deepest pitching staffs in the American League.

Final Thoughts…

While some feel the Royals will make a push for the division crown in 2009, those expectations may be too much too soon. Expect Kansas City to make steady improvements, break the .500 barrier, gain more confidence, and build on 2009 while preparing for a real run at a title in 2010 and 2011.

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We’ve touched on 11 of 30… but the plan is to touch ‘em all! Below is the link to the first third:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds

Tomorrow — Jeff Lubbers assesses the Oakland Athletics