Posted by Jim Sandoval on Tuesday, March 10, 2009 at 3:50 am

Dusty Baker’s first year as Cincinnati Reds manager saw the team improve by two games and the exit of future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. and basher Adam Dunn. Baker’s second season tests his ability to manage a crop of promising youngsters headlined by Jay Bruce (22 in April) and 25-year-old Edinson Volquez. BDD’s Jim Sandoval drops his two cents on the subject. Read on for a quick look at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Cincinnati Reds.

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Cincinnati Reds

‘08 Record: 74-88, 5th in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 72-90 (+2)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85, 4th in NL Central

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2008 Recap

It is difficult to say 2008 was a disappointment for the Reds. It was their eighth consecutive losing year. Perhaps it should have been expected. High hopes were quickly dashed as ace Aaron Harang suffered through a nightmare and power hitting corner outfields Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. were traded away. Centerfielder Corey Patterson played down to expectations and shortstop Alex Gonzalez didn’t play at all.

On the positive side, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto were among the best rookies in the league and young pitcher Edinson Volquez softened the blow of seeing his trade counterpart Josh Hamilton pay dividends in Texas with an All-Star appearance. Also, Brandon Phillips picked up a Gold Glove in his third season as the Reds second baseman.

2009 Outlook

Although they might be a year or two away from contending for a playoff spot, the 2009 Reds should be improved. Transitioning from a team that lived and died by the three-run homer to a team built on pitching, defense and speed is still a work in progress. Youngsters Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto and Chris Dickerson along with 2008 first round pick Yonder Alonso and some Minor League pitching prospects give Reds fans some hope for the future. GM Walt Jocketty took over in April 2008 and has proven he knows how to build winning ball clubs.

Growing pains should be expected with many young players in the lineup but the Reds should receive long-term gain for letting the kids play. A fairly strong pitching staff should also ease some pressure off of the young position players. To the pitching staff’s delight, many balls in the outfield the dropped to the grass in front of the two statues in the corners should be caught this year.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Recent trade acquisition Ramon Hernandez joins the club from the Orioles and will be the starting catcher. Hernandez adds power and stability to a position served by committee in 2008. Ryan Hanigan should earn the backup role. Even on the downside of his career, Ramon is an upgrade over the Cincinnati catching crew of 2008.

Infield

First baseman Joey Votto is a rising star. The 2008 rookie hit .297/.368/.506 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI. Look for those numbers to improve in 2009. As good as he is, Votto may be unseated at first and moved to left field in the next couple of seasons by Reds prospect Yonder Alonso. A tough decision awaits there but a good problem to have for the Reds organization.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips is one of the best at his position in the Majors. A Gold Glover with a 30-30 season under his belt, Phillips should hit clean-up for the Reads in 2009.

Shortstop will be strong for the Reds if Alex Gonzalez returns to full health following micro-fracture knee surgery that cost him all of 2008. Gonzalez would solidify the infield defense and should hit 15-20 home runs. If he cannot play regularly, the Reds would be forced to choose between utility man Jeff Keppinger or young players like Paul Janish who can field but not hit or Chris Valaika who is the opposite.

Third base belongs to Edwin Encarnacion. He popped 26 homers in 2008 and could be a force in the middle of the lineup. His defense is problematic but despite brief speculation of an outfield move, it appears Encarnacion will remain at third… in 2009 at least.

Keppinger and Wilkin Castillo are likely super-utility options to provide infield depth. Jerry Hairston Jr. could also see time in the infield in addition to the outfield.

Outfield

The Reds traded corner outfielders Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. in 2008, a move that cost some power but returns increased athleticism in the outfield by their absence.

Left field should be manned by “toolsy” Chris Dickerson. Dickerson is a great athlete still learning the ropes of the game. He runs well enough to play center and has showed power in the Minors.

Center field belongs to newly acquired Willy Taveras. Taveras covers enormous ground in center which surely helps the Reds defense. Penciled in as the lead-off hitter, he will have to improve his on-base skills to be truly effective. Willy led the Majors in steals with 68 in 2008 and should be the catalyst for the club’s new emphasis on speed and manufacturing runs. But, as the saying goes, you cannot steal first base. So, Taveras needs to improve on his .308 on-base percentage from 2008.

Future franchise player Jay Bruce patrols right field. A five-tool talent, Bruce has barely scratched the surface of that talent. His rookie year numbers include 21 home runs and average/on-base/slugging numbers of /254/.314/.453. Look for all of those numbers to rise in 2009.

The Reds have a solid bench thanks to the signing of Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes and Jacque Jones. Center field prospect Drew Stubbs, who some scouts say is a Gold Glove in waiting witha questionable bat, may get a look in September.

Starting Rotation

A potential strength of the Reds if Aaron Harang can return to the pitcher he was in 2006-07, winning 16 games each season. Edinson Volquez is a Cy Young consideration and the new staff ace while Johnny Cueto showed flashes of brilliance in 2008 and has 15 to 17 win potential. Harang and Bronson Arroyo should continue to chew up innings making a solid bullpen even better. The fifth starter should be decided in a Spring Training competition between Micah Owings and former first round pick Homer Bailey. Bailey goes to Triple-A if he loses the battle while Owings would be added to the bullpen and provide a bat off the bench. Other candidates include hard-throwing right-hander Daryl Thompson who has suffered through arm injuries and crafty lefty Matt Maloney.

Bullpen

This year’s Reds bullpen should not be overpowering but has great depth. Closer Francisco “Coco” Cordero and set-up man David Weathers bring solid veteran pitching know-how. Newly acquired Arthur Rhodes and the returning Bill Bray should be effective from the left side. Hard-throwing Jared Burton and successful reclamation project Mike Lincoln should earn bullpen spots as well. Possible closer-in-waiting Josh Roenicke and Nick Masset should see time in the Reds pen also.

Around the Horn With the Cincinnati Reds

Best Case Scenario…

After a freak plane disappearance sends the Cubs and Brewers teams to an island joining the cast of “Lost”, the Reds beat out the Cardinals for the division title. Gonzalez comes back with a vengeance, earning a Gold Glove and ripping 20-plus home runs. Bruce and Votto compete for a Triple Crown.

Worst Case Scenario…

Votto and/or Bruce miss significant playing time and the pitching staff implodes. The Reds drop behind the Pirates into the NL Central cellar.

Breakthrough Performance…
Jay Bruce

In his second season, Bruce becomes a starting outfielder in the All-Star Game.

Ready to Rebound…
Aaron Harang

Harang wins the Comeback Player of the Year Award after putting up 230 innings and 16 wins.

Ready to Disappoint…
The Bullpen

Leads fall like the Dow Jones.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Manager Dusty Baker is let go so GM Jocketty can bring in his own man.

Be Shocked If…

Broadcaster Marty Brennaman’s last words at the World Series are “And this one belongs to the Reds.”

In the Next Three Years…

The Reds go on a major upswing adding young talent to a nucleus of Bruce, Votto, Volquez and Cueto and become contenders again.

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One-third of the previews are wrapped. Here’s a link to the ones you may have missed…

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers and Colorado Rockies

Tommorow — Joe Hamrahi coronates the Kansas City Royals