Posted by Jeremy Tomasulo on Monday, March 9, 2009 at 6:35 am

Take note Rays fans, Cinderella stories don’t always have a happy ending. Two years ago, the Colorado Rockies turned baseball on its ear with their magical run to the World Series only to disappear from the contending baseball landscape in 2008. Matt Holliday is gone so it’s safe to say this year’s Rox have a new look. Does Jeremy Tomasulo think the Rockies have any shot of repeating the unexpected success of their 2007 season? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Colorado Rockies.

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Colorado Rockies

‘08 Record: 74-88, 3rd in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 74-88
Current PECOTA Projection: 75-87, T-3rd in NL West

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2008 Recap

September 2007 seems like a decade ago. If you recall, in September 2007 we were talking about Floyd Landis’ drug use — not A-Rod’s, our 401k accounts were worth more than the paper they were printed on and O.J. Simpson was busy kidnapping people in Las Vegas. Oh, and the Colorado Rockies decided not to lose for over a month!

September 2007 seems like so long ago.

In 2008, the Rockies were not right from the get go. They got off to an awful start and never were better than one game over .500. An 11-17 April and 9-19 May effectively killed their season, despite a mini-rebound in July. After sweeping Arizona in the 2007 NLCS, they dropped 15 of 18 to the Diamondbacks in 2008. Dominance from a division rival went a long way towards destroying 2008 and finishing 14 games under .500. Getting swept by the Royals didn’t help either.

It wasn’t all watered-down beer in Coors Land. Amazingly, a couple of the bright spots were on the mound. Aaron Cook developed into an ace. The 29-year-old’s numbers weren’t dominating but he did win 16 games with an ERA under 4.00. He allowed 236 hits in 211 innings but managed to keep the ball in the park with only 13 homers allowed. Ubaldo Jimenez may be developing into the ace starter the Rockies wanted, too. The 24-year-old made huge strides, striking out 172 in 198 innings but needs to trim his 100+ walk total to take the next step toward ace-dom. Sadly, 2007 ace Jeff Francis got hurt and will miss the entire 2009 season.

Offensively, it is strange to say that Colorado struggled last year. Remove Matt Holliday’s bat from the lineup — and his .321 average and .947 OPS — and you have one other .300 hitter, part-timer Ryan Spilborghs. Oh wait! The Rockies DID remove Holliday’s bat in 2009. More on that later. You know it is a bad offensive year when Todd Helton hits .264.

2009 Outlook

Bleak. The aforementioned trade of Holliday to Oakland creates a gigantic crater in the Rockies’ lineup that is almost impossible to fill. Helton must remain healthy and find the Fountain of Youth. Brad Hawpe needs to take his 25-homer season to the next level. At 29, is there another level for Hawpe?

The season comes down to two things: Pitching and youth. If Cook and Jimenez continue to improve, two stoppers at the head of the class will help offset trouble scoring runs. If Huston Street and Manny Corpas can form a one-two punch to close out games, the Rockies might notch a lot of one-run wins. Most importantly, they need the young guys to step up. 2007 revelation Troy Tulowitski struggled in 2008. They need him back. Also, one of their prized chips — Dexter Fowler or Carlos Gonzalez — need to be a strong contributor this year.

There is little room for error for the Rockies. But as we learned in 2007, a little hot streak can go a long way.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

The Rockies loved getting a .505 slugging percentage out of Chris Iannetta in 2008 and are hoping for improvements this year. Their young backstop’s development may be a huge key in unlocking Colorado’s offensive potential. Finding runs is one of the biggest hurdles facing Manager Clint Hurdle with Holliday’s production gone to Oakland. Iannetta may be one source. Yorvit Torrealba and his awesome name will backup adequately.

Infield

If Colorado does not play well in the first half, don’t be surprised to see Todd Helton moved. He’s their first baseman, for now. Helton has been shopped before and almost went to Boston but with three years and an option remaining on his contract, Todd may prove tough to move. Improved numbers and health over last year is a must if the Rockies dream of contention in 2009. Joe Koshansky and John Baker wait in the wings.

Remember back in 2005 when Clint Barmes was the toast of Denver after a hot start? Then he hurt himself carrying meat given to him by Helton. That Clint Barmes. Well, heeeee’s back! Barmes hit .290 with 11 dingers and 13 steals in 2008 and is clearly the front-runner to win the open job at second. Should he falter (or carry more meat), Baker is in line for a shot after his solid part-time performance last year. Ian Stewart still needs a place to play, too. The 23-year-old has a shot at a few open jobs after a decent rookie year. 94 K in 266 AB might indicate more seasoning is needed.

2007 Rookie of the Year runner-up Troy Tulowitski got hurt early and never got into rhythm until late 2008. Needless to say, like Iannetta, the Rockies are hoping for Tulo to pick up the Holliday slack. If his second half is any indication, he may be ready, willing and able to pick up the ball and run with it. Should the shortstop fail or get hurt again, Barmes can shift to his old position or the man, myth and legend known as Omar Quintanilla could see time.

The forgotten man on the Rockies, Garrett Atkins, mans third. Rarely talked about, Atkins quietly was the only Rockie to put in a full season. He hit 21 home runs and fell one RBI short of 100 while hitting .286. Colorado would take a similar season from him but would love to see Atkins return to 2006 or 2007 form. A likely candidate to be moved should the Rockies struggle, Stewart would like settle in for the immediate future at third.

Outfield

Why split it up when no one really knows who will play where with Brad Hawpe out there. Assuming Hawpe avoids cutting more fingers on his teammates’ shows, he slots over in right field this season. The 29-year-old has been consistent the last three years with a bit of a spike in production in 2007. A healthy Hawpe gives Colorado homers in the mid-20s and around 100 RBI. he will also provide much enjoyment trying to cover the spacious Coors Field outfield.

The other two spots are wide open with five main contenders — unless you think Stewart can have a great spring and force his way into left field. The primary contenders:

Carlos Gonzalez — He will get every chance to replace Holliday after trouble in Oakland last year. Likely not ready for the spotlight in 2008, Gonzalez has great potential and could be a star if he learns plate discipline. Perhaps Helton will rub off. If he has a good spring, expect Gonzalez in center or left.

Dexter Fowler – A good spring from speedy Fowler could win him the job. Likely the future in center, in a perfect world he shifts Gonzalez to the corner outfield and form a tandem for many years. In all likelihood, Fowler heads to Triple-A to start the year and gets ready to roam the outfield in 2010 and beyond.

Ryan Spilborghs – If Fowler or Gonzlez has a rough spring, expect Spilborghs to step up. He very quietly hit .313 in limited time last year and is a decent fill-in until one of the prized kids is ready.

Seth Smith – The decent platoon of Smith and Spilborghs may carry over in left this year. Assuming the inexperienced Fowler stays in Triple-A, there are worse options than a Spilborghs/Smith platoon in left with Gonzalez in center.

Matt Murton – Acquired from Oakland in a different deal, Murton is finally away from Lou Piniella’s scorn but in a place where he is competing with more talent. He’s still only 27 and his style of hitting is perfectly suited for the spacious outfield in Denver. If Murton doesn’t hit in March, he’ll end up on the bench or in Triple-A waiting for someone to fail or get hurt.

Starting Rotation

Joining Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez should be the trio of Jason Marquis, Jorge De La Rosa and Greg Smith. Marquis came over from the Cubs as a source of innings and little else. He has never realized the great potential many scouts once thought he had. The Rockies can only hope that he becomes a mid-rotation horse who takes some pressure off of the bullpen though his likely destination is the glue factory rather than Churchill Downs. De La Rosa won’t provide innings as he rarely pitches deep into games. Chances are he will not correct the flaw and give way to someone like Jason Hirsh or Franklin Morales at some point. Smith had a solid and somewhat surprising season for Oakland but is a flyball pitcher in Colorado. That can be scary.

Bullpen

The Rockies might have done well for themselves in getting Huston Street from Oakland… except for the problem of losing Holliday to get him! Despite his injury problems the last two years and inexplicably losing his closer job to Brad Ziegler and his freak streak, people forget that Street is only 25 and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in the Majors. Supposedly, he dropped the excess weight that may have dragged him down last year and I think he will be a top NL closer this year. If not, Manny Corpas will step in. The Rockies will be fine with him as the closer but even better with a Street-Corpas combination ending games. Corpas still has some split-personality issues to tackle but if the “good” Corpas shows up, he will be a great asset.

Joining them in the pen will be Taylor Buchholz who had one of the quietest great seasons by relievers in 2008. Hopefully, his elbow injury is not serious. If it is, Ryan Speier may see added time in a set-up role. Alan Embree adds experience and a lefty arm and Jason Grilli returns after a surprisingly decent season.

Around the Horn With the Colorado Rockies

Best Case Scenario…

They find a time machine and return to 2007, don’t get rusty after sweeping Arizona and tell Jeff Francis to have his arm checked out. Seriously, the best case is for Cook and Jimenez to develop into a stellar top of the rotation and rest adequately fill the innings to the Street-Corpas tandem and the 2009 Rockies staff operates a la the 1996 Yankees and 1990 Reds. In addition, Helton stays healthy and the 20-somethings in the lineup increase production while supplemented by at least one of the budding stars in the outfield. That and an NL West where no one runs and hides could lead the Rockies into the playoffs with 90-plus wins.

Worst Case Scenario…

The pitching falls apart, Cook turns out to be a fluke and the Rockies call Livan Hernandez’s agent again. Street loses all confidence and channels Mark Wohlers. Helton gets hurt again and the kids can’t hit Major League pitching. The team gives up and unloads Atkins and Hawpe at the deadline and gears up for 2010 as they post 100 losses.

Breakthrough Performance…
Carlos Gonzalez

He’s a bit more advanced thanks to his MLB experience last year than Fowler although Fowler might be better long term.

Ready to Rebound…
Huston Street

I have always thought he would become a star and still think that. However, he is getting to the “now or never” part of his career. It’s “now” for Street.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Rockies contend… Seriously! There’s talent here even if it is too young or too fragile. If they can strike the right balance, they could put together a run and add a solid starter in July to fit into that gaping middle of the rotation hole. It’s entirely possible Hurdle gets fired, too. It might be undeserving but if they fail spectacularly out of the box, he may be the scapegoat.

In the Next Three Years…

You could have a real story here. Helton with either be gone or the old man on campus trying for one last shot at a ring. Stewart will be at third. Gonzalez and Fowler should be roaming the outfield. Hector Gomez may be the new kid on the block at second. Jimenez is an All-Star and Jhoulys Chacin makes his way into the rotation while Street racks up the saves with his new entry song…

Team Song…

“Where the Streets Have No Name”

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We’ve previewed nine… here are the previous eight:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers

Tomorrow — Jim Sandoval presents the Cincinnati Reds