Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Sunday, March 8, 2009 at 7:32 am

There were high hopes in Detroit last season but those were dashed quickly after an 0-7 start. Even though the Tigers bounced back slightly and were three games over .500 and just five games back on July 30, they never were truly contenders in the AL Central. In ‘09, the expectations aren’t as high but the division has no clear favorite. Our Jeff Lubbers takes us through this year’s team and how they stack up. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Detroit Tigers.

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Detroit Tigers

‘08 Record: 74-88, 5th in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 78-84 (-4)
Current PECOTA Projection: 80-82, 2nd (Tie) in AL Central

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2008 Recap

It was Murphy’s Law for the last place Detroit Tigers in 2008. Many thought a World Series victory and a 1,000-run offense were in their reach. Instead, the Tigers limped out of the gate and were 5-1/2 games out of first after a 2-10 start and never got closer than 4-1/2 games out during a brief flirtation with playoff contention in late June. The baseball gods seemed intent on dragging the season out as long as possible for the Tigers as their season finally ended with a make-up game that sent the Chicago White Sox to a one-game playoff and sent the Tigers one game behind the Kansas City Royals for last place in the Central.

Since hindsight is 20/20, it’s easy to see the many question marks that made the expectations put on the Tigers unrealistic. For example, Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco, while capable performers in 2008, were not going to repeat their respective career years from 2007. And a simple change of scenery was not going to fix Dontrelle Willis’ wildness that plagued him in 2006 and 2007. And that’s merely a taste of what both the team and fans who expected the world should have seen coming.

2009 Outlook

The Tigers’ offseason plan couldn’t have been more different from the plan just one year prior. Glamour moves like acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Willis and signing them for a little over $180 million were not repeated in the 2009 offseason. Instead, the club signed Adam Everett and Brandon Lyon and traded for Gerald Laird and Edwin Jackson for a total of just under $11 million.

Other than Everett and Laird, the team’s starting lineup looks similar to Opening Day 2008 with the average age from the projected lineup (31.9 years), the exact same in 2009 as it was in 2008 when many thought the team looked a bit old. Despite 2008’s disappointment, both the starting rotation and bullpen will feature many of the same faces, too.

An improvement on their 74-88 record from a year before is likely but the similarities make it difficult to call them a true contender. There is hope for fans since the American League Central from top-to-bottom is pretty mediocre. All five teams could just as easily finish in last place at 75-87 as they could in first place at 85-77.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Newly acquired Gerald Laird replaces the Ivan Rodriguez/Brandon Inge tandem from ‘08. Desperate for a new catcher, the Tigers may have slightly overpaid for Laird at the price of two Minor League pitchers but his $2.8-million salary is reasonable. Fellow offseason acquisition Matt Treanor will serve as backup.

Infield

First baseman Miguel Cabrera had one of the more modest seasons for a home run champion in recent memory. A career high in home runs and a strong second half weren’t enough to fend off four-year lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Nevertheless, Cabrera figures to be an offensive powerhouse at his new position through the length of his contract (2015).

Placido Polanco maintained his “tough out” reputation (one strikeout every 14.6 plate appearances in ‘08) but his overall numbers did not match his outstanding 2007 campaign. In the last year of his contract, the team will need to decide whether to keep the 33-year-old second baseman.

Newly acquired Adam Everett will be expected to scoop up every ground ball imaginable and not much else. His career 69 OPS+ have offensive expectations low to say the least. 2007 draft pick Cale Iorg looks to be the shortstop of the future.

Maybe more shocking than their last place finish was the fact the Tigers didn’t trade Brandon Inge. Inge has returned to his preferred position at third (his career OPS is 160 points higher as a third baseman vs. catching) and the team is hoping stability leads to a recurrence of his semi-productive 2004-06 seasons.

Outfield

The team’s latest version of positional musical chairs finds left field patrolled by Carlos Guillen. Thanks to his eligibility at first, third and in the outfield, Guillen’s fantasy value may surpass his actual value to the Tigers. His declining offense is less hurtful in left field than at first but Guillen’s productive years with the team appear to be behind him.

All-around nice guy Curtis Granderson starts the season in center as the best player on the Tigers to never appear in an All-Star Game. His defensive metrics in 2008 declined substantially which suprised many. However, his overall potential in centerfield is matched only by his potential in the broadcast booth where he performed admirably on TV during the 2007 and 2008 playoffs.

Right fielder Magglio Ordonez came back to reality in 2008 following an amazing 2007 season (third highest OPS+ for a Tiger since 1941). Still productive, Ordonez enters the season needing 126 starts or 457 plate appearances to guarantee his pricey options in 2010 ($18 million) and 2011 ($15 million), amounts likely out of reach on the open market. A poor 2009 performance and Ordonez may worry he’ll get the “Frank Thomas treatment“.

In his sixth season with the Tigers, fourth outfielder Marcus Thames is an excellent source of power off the bench. How he has not been traded or become frustrated with his role in Detroit is a mystery. Among all players with at least 1,000 plate appearances from 2006-2008, Thames is second only to Ryan Howard with one home run every 14.7 PAs. His .304 on-base percentage over the same period is what keeps him from a regular starting job.

Designated Hitter

It belongs to Gary Sheffield for now. It’s likely Sheffield’s 40-year-old frame will continue to break down and a DH platoon will be implemented with right-hand Thames and potentially left-handed Jeff Larish (49 homers in Double-A and Triple-A in the last two years) who has a chance to make the team as a utility player.

Starting Rotation

If a last place team can have a savior, Armando Galarraga was that in 2008. Expectations of a repeat performance will prove to be difficult for Galarraga.

A number of factors caused Justin Verlander’s drop-off in 2008. Increased wildness, poor bullpen support and possibly tipping his pitches were just a few. Getting his wildness under control will be key for Verlander to get back on track in 2009.

A blood clot cut Jeremy Bonderman’s 2008 short. The Tigers are being very careful with Bonderman. It’s easy to forget that the six-year Major League veteran is only 26. It’s hard to forget that he’s never quite lived up to his potential.

The trade for Edwin Jackson satisfied Dave Dombrowski’s penchant for hard throwers. Jackson should bring some consistency to the rotation — he made 31 starts in each of the last two seasons — but spectacular numbers aren’t expected.

Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson and Zach Miner are the top candidates to round out the shaky rotation. However, so far this spring no one has pitched like they really want it.

Bullpen

The team’s 2008 plan to squeeze one more year out of Todd Jones blew up by mid-July. By then, the entire bullpen played scapegoat for an all-around disappointing team. The signing of Brandon Lyon, the club’s likely closer, gives the team an anti-Jones. In 2008, Lyon posted 1.97 BB/9 compared to Jones’ 3.89 BB/9. Other than Lyon, the hopes of improved results from the bullpen rest on returning relievers Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney and Bobby Seay, among others.

It is possible new blood will be added to the bullpen and/or starting rotation in 2009. Recently, Jim Leyland has been channeling his inner Sparky Anderson (“Chris Pittaro has a chance to be the greatest second baseman who ever lived.”) while speaking very highly of young players in the Tigers’ system including pitching prospects Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry. Leyland has a track record of giving young players deserved playing time (see Verlander and Zumaya in 2006) so if Willis, Robertson and Miner continue to play hot potato for the final rotation spot, Porcello has a shot to nab it. And if injuries and/or ineffectiveness strikes the bullpen again, Perry has a chance at playing time.

Around the Horn With the Detroit Tigers

Best Case Scenario…

The Tigers squeeze more production out of their aging veterans in all aspects of the game while getting a few unexpected contributions from the younger players, particularly on the mound.

Worst Case Scenario…

Tiger pitchers continue to give up the most walks in the Majors, defensive upgrades fail and Leyland leaves the team before the season ends.

Breakthrough Performance…
Curtis Granderson

While his 2008 season was hardly disappointing, Granderson has a chance to be even better in 2009 and beyond. His strikeout rate has substantially declined and subsequently his power numbers have increased. He won’t stand out in any particular offensive category but a repeat of his 2007 20/20/20/20 season (2B/3B/HR/SB) is entirely possible.

Ready to Rebound…
Justin Verlander

A single disappointing season following two outstanding ones points toward the belief (for now) that 2008 was an aberration.

Ready to Disappoint…
Armando Galarraga

Galarraga’s league-leading BABIP (.239) and low K/9 rate (6.3) raised red flags for anyone with a basic understanding of sabermetrics and make him ripe for a fall off in 2009. For the most casual fan, his 2009 may come as a disappointment but not for those paying closer attention in 2008.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

This is Leyland’s last year in Detroit. Not surprisingly, there was no contract extension in the offseason. He’ll need to harness his 2006 magic to give this team a fighting shot at a playoff berth.

Be Shocked If…

Gary Sheffield is heard from again after hitting his 500th home run in April.

In the Next Three Years…

A multi-year outlook must include a mention of the declining Michigan and Detroit economies likely to put a dent in 2009 attendance figures. The “all-in” move in 2008 saw the Tigers trade some its best younger talent (Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens) and that should eventually haunt them down the road even with the long-term signing of Cabrera.

Recent drafts have been boosted by their willingness to hand down large signing bonuses to draftees, much to the chagrin of Bud Selig. With possible declining revenues, the Tigers might need to find hidden talent in the draft rather than signing overpriced talent that drops.

The Next Injury to Joel Zumaya (of Guitar Hero and “Moving Boxes” Fame) Will Be…

When he tries to hit 100-mph on the stadium radar gun tossing promotional t-shirts into the crowd between innings.

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Eight is not enough when it comes to team previews but we hope these will hold you over until tomorrow’s edition:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves

Tomorrow — Jeremy Tomasulo’s commentary on the Colorado Rockies