Posted by Timm Davis on Saturday, March 7, 2009 at 7:40 pm

Many thought the 2008 version of the Atlanta Braves were going to be contenders but after injuries decimated their pitching staff and the club traded away Mark Teixeira that bubble of hope burst. Now, with a revamped rotation some are thinking they can contend in the ultra-competitive National League East again. Our Timm Davis gives us his take on the Braves’ chances in 2009. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for this year, position breakdowns and more on the 2009 Atlanta Braves.

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Atlanta Braves

‘08 Record: 72-90, 4th in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 79-83 (-7)
Current PECOTA Projection: 86-76, 3rd in NL East

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2008 Recap

Who would have thought at the beginning of the 2008 season John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine would all go down with an injury? Smoltz had a cranky shoulder for a few years so he was pitching on borrowed time to begin with. Glavine, on the other hand, NEVER went on the disabled list in his long and distinguished career (First time for everything, right?). And Hudson? No one saw his injury coming either. Or the Braves’ best set-up guy Peter Moylan needing Tommy John surgery for that matter?

Really, it went from bad to worse last season. Mark Teixeira started slowly and found himself in another uniform by the trading deadline. In return, the Braves picked up potential Gold Glove first baseman Casey Kotchman. But Kotchman had problems, too. The switch of leagues and a stint on the bereavement list to care for his ailing mother slowed his progress and he just never recovered. The rotation was held down by rookie Jair Jurrjens, an acquisition in the Edgar Renteria trade. Golden boy Jeff Francoeur was officially the worst right fielder in the game and even got demoted… for all of three days.

Braves’ injuries weren’t limited to the pitching staff either. Matt Diaz injured his knee early on playing left and had two setbacks during rehab assignments in the Minors. Chipper Jones made his usual trips to the DL and long days off to bring his games played total down to 128 from 138 in 2007.

There was the occasional bright spot. The Braves sent Jones and Brian McCann to the Mid-Summer Classic and McCann made his third straight start there. McCann also picked up his second Silver Slugger Award and Chipper won the National League batting titlte and finished 12th in MVP voting. Sure, those things sound great but it’s tough to put a silver lining on a 90-loss season.

2009 Outlook

I think PECOTA has it just about right. The 2009 Braves are an 85-90 win team. 90 is a bit optimistic but if the cards fall right, it could happen. It looks to be a tight race in the East between the Braves, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies.

For the first time in 20 years, Smoltz will not be wearing a Braves uniform. While strange, we know what hat he’ll be wearing on his Hall of Fame plaque. The news of the departure of Smoltz wasn’t quite as sad as hearing of the trade of Dale Murphy to the Phillies and Smoltz was now a full-blown injury risk that’s likely to keep him shelved until June at the earliest. Maybe it was best to part ways, though Smoltz will tell anyone willing to listen he got the shaft.

A completely revamped rotation and a strong bullpen that suffered from being overworked in the second half of 2008 takes the field in 2009. Some innings eaters amongst the five starters should keep them from being toast by the All-Star break. The offense has some holes but some — Jeff Francoeur? — are due for a rebound. Plus, the change of scenery for free agent acquisition Garret Anderson might be good.

The Braves need some things to go right to make it back to October but don’t count on it. 85 wins is an improvement but likely not enough for a postseason trip. Look for them to return to the playoffs… in 2010.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Perennial All-Star Brian McCann is the no-brainer choice behind the dish. With serviceable newcomer David Ross as McCann’s caddy, there will no longer be a black hole in the lineup when McCann needs a day off. At least he’s not Todd Pratt, right?

Infield

Casey Kotchman will spend his first full season in a Braves uniform at first. The return for shipping out Teixeira to the Angels is not going to hit you a ton of homers — he hit 14 last season and 12 in an Angels jersey — but the former first round selection is a plus with the glove. Kotchman posted a +13 according to John Dewan’s +/- and UZR has him at 5.5, fifth best in the Majors.

At second is Kelly Johnson and his league average defense and decent pop with the bat (about 15-20 home runs a year). People would swear on a stack of Bibles that Kelly’s defense is lacking but by most metrics he’s league average. A streaky guy at the plate who is very productive when he’s on. Depending on who the lead-off hitter is and where manager Bobby Cox puts Yunel Escobar in the lineup will determine whether Johnson hits second or lower in the order.

Speaking of Escobar, the Braves shortstop went from out of the top 10 of John Dewan’s Fielding Bible in 2007 to second behind Jimmy Rollins in 2008. For the record, Escobar led the Majors in defense until the injury bug forced him to miss some time. His keys in 2009 are to up his walk rate and bring down the strikeouts. There’s little power to speak of here even with his career-best 10 jacks last season.

Chipper Jones returns for his 15th season wearing a tomahawk. It’s a always a question of how long will Jones stay healthy and how many games will he miss? He missed significant time in 2008 and played just 128 games. When he isn’t in the lineup, the offense suffers because of it. So, a big key for the Braves offense is Chipper’s health. At age 36, don’t hold your breath for a completely healthy season and pencil him in for at least one trip to the DL.

Outfield

In 2008, the Braves outfield hit a total of 22 home runs. This offseason, GM Frank Wren went looking for an outfield bat and returned with Garret Anderson. He’s never hit more than 15 home runs in a season and was barely above average defensively in 2008. Not quite what the Braves were looking for. Then again, he was the consolation prize in the “Ken Griffey Jr.” sweepstakes. Maybe it is best for Anderson to platoon with Matt Diaz but the rumor of Garret playing every day won’t go away.

Centerfield should be manned by Josh Anderson and/or Gregor Blanco. Anderson is out of options and prospect Jordan Schafer still needs some seasoning at the Double-A level. So, Josh will keep Schafer’s seat warm and provide some speed at the top of the lineup if he can get on base. Anderson provides plus defense and covers a lot of ground. It’s best not to rush Schafer though some believe he’s Opening Day ready. (Not me!)

Jeff Francoeur attempts to turn things around in right field. There’s no doubt about his arm but his bat is cause for doubt. Francoeur rarely takes a walk and his power has gone from good to abysmal. A three-day trip to the Minors didn’t kick start anything. I’d suspect he’ll have a short leash this year but he can’t really be as bas as last year, can he?

Starting Rotation

With Smoltz gone, Hudson and Glavine rehabbing from surgeries, the rotation needed an overhaul. Wren was aggressive in the free agent market but couldn’t pull the trigger on a deal for Jake Peavy and was outbid by the Yankees (surprise!) in their pursuit of A.J. Burnett. Wren’s plan “C” (I guess?) was Derek Lowe, a player the front office claimed they had “no interest” in at the beginning of the winter. Amazing how things change.

Atlanta also picked up Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami and gave up little (catching prospect Tyler Flowers) for Javier Vazquez from the Chicago White Sox. They did re-sign Tom Glavine to a one-year deal (not the brightest move, really) and Jair Jurrjens returns to the rotation after a promising rookie year (although he did fade down the stretch). Jurrjens pitched more innings last season (188-1/3) than he had in any other year in his Minor League career (topping 2005’s 142-2/3 with Class A West Michigan).

Jo-Jo Reyes and Jorge Campillo are on the outside looking in with the re-signing of Glavine. Look for Campillo as a spot starter out of a bullpen role and Reyes at Triple-A Gwinnett. He’ll get the first call if something goes wrong in Atlanta.

Bullpen

The Braves had one of the better bullpens at the start of last season but as the rotation dropped like flies and rarely pitched past the fifth, bullpen abuse took its toll. Anyone familiar with the Braves is used to Cox’s favoritism who has no problem sticking with those high on his list and turning their arms into Jell-O in the process. Southpaw Mike Gonzalez is back, fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and ready to be used at the end of games. He’s somewhat erratic and might start slow but should improve as the season goes on.

Rafael Soriano and his gopheritis and elbow problems whouls be raring to go if his elbow holds out. Pete Moylan returns from TJ surgery and will share set-up duties with Soriano. Blaine Boyer and Campillo are the club’s options in middle relief. Free agent Will Ohman’s departure hands the LOOGY spot to Boone Logan or Eric O’Flaherty. Logan has the edge with O’Flaherty headed to Gwinnett. The long relief spot will belong to the very interchangeable Buddy Carlyle or Jeff Bennett.

Around the Horn With the Atlanta Braves

Best Case Scenario…

The rotation stays injury-free for the entire season so Bobby doesn’t have to ride the bullpen like a rented mule. “Frenchy” pulls his head out and the Braves win at least 90 games and sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card.

Worst Case Scenario…

See: 2008 Recap

Breakthrough Performance…
Kelly Johnson

He’s already compiled some decent seasons and it’s only going to get better. He’ll tone down his streakiness and hit for a bit more power and net about 20 if given the chance. This breakout also includes a defensive improvement.

Ready to Rebound…
Jeff Francoeur

I repeat, “He can’t be as bad as last season, can he?”

Ready to Disappoint…
Tom Glavine

At 42, he’s done. You can’t expect too much from him and even then he’s going to let you down. It’s been a nice run but he’s a soft-tossing lefty with elbow issues. There are younger, better (and cheaper) options waiting in the wings.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

At some point this season, both Chipper Jones and Garret Anderson are watching games from the DL.

Be Shocked If…

The Braves win the National League East. They are an 85 or so win team and that’s not enough to win the East.

In the Next Three Years…

The Braves become more competitive with great youngsters waiting in the wings. Guys like Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer are knocking at the door. Lowe should be the ace for a few years so there’s that lead anchor that can also help guys like Charlie Morton and Hanson adjust to the Majors and thrive. Believe it or not, the Braves farm is doing well for itself and that should be apparent in the next three years.

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Seven previews down. Here’s links to who we’ve covered already:

Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants

Tomorrow — Jeff Lubbers hunts down the scoop on the Detroit Tigers