Posted by Paul Bugala on Friday, March 6, 2009 at 5:43 am

2008 was the beginning of the post-Barry Bonds era in San Francisco and the Giants actually improved their record by a game. Young Tim Lincecum emerged as the ace and took home the National League Cy Young and San Fran climbed their way out of the bottom of the West. Now, some are putting the Giants on that short list of sleeper teams that could surprise in 2009. But does BDD’s Paul Bugala agree? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2009, position breakdowns and more on this year’s San Francisco Giants.

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San Francisco Giants

‘08 Record: 72-90, 4th in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 68-94 (+4)
Current PECOTA Projection: 75-87, T-3rd in NL West

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2008 Recap

The first year after Barry featured the debut of 16 different rookies, more bad contracts and a few promising signs for the future.

The Giants felt Barry Bonds’ absence in the headlines and the batters box in 2008. They finished last in the National League with only 94 home runs and the remaining cast of overpaid veterans and youngsters of uneven promise managed 72 wins only by stealing games from their weak NL West rivals.

The Giants did demonstrate the good sense to make a lost season into an audition for the organization’s young talent. Some such as Eugenio Velez, Emmanuel Burriss and John Bowker showed flashes of brilliance but also exposed their weaknesses. Others — relievers Brian Wilson, Merkin Valdez, Alex Hinshaw, and Sergio Romo — proved they could be useful parts of winning teams. While Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Pedro Sandoval reminded San Franciscans what irrational exuberance felt like.

2009 Outlook

The signing of Randy Johnson and Spring Training signs of life from probable fourth starter Barry Zito give the Giants their most exciting rotation in years. Add to that some promising bullpen arms (especially if Valdez gets healthy) and this team has a strong chance to lead the Majors in fewest runs allowed. When you consider that Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson are waiting in the wings, things look pretty bleak for hitters who visit the city by the bay for years to come.

The Giants offensive prospects are much less promising. Bengie Molina, Randy Winn, offseason acquisition Edgar Renteria and (probably) Aaron Rowand are expensive placeholders for the next championship-caliber team in San Francisco. Pablo Sandoval was fantastic in 2008 and should be very good in 2009 but his .367 BABIP shows he’s in line for a bit of a correction. For all but the seemingly few diehard Giants fans, all there’s left to do is wait for Buster Posey.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Bengie Molina is a very rare offensive and defensive asset at catcher. However, a team that bats him fourth more often than not has problems. The win or two he nets the Giants would be much more useful to a contender. Pablo Sandoval has not been playing behind the plate in Spring Training so he’s definitely the third catcher behind Steve Holm. (Let the Buster Posey watch begin!)

Infield

The Giants appear committed to giving Sandoval most of the reps at third base. So, it seems likely Travis Ishikawa will contribute his sub-replacement level offense at first base. If only the National League were the California League.

In the wake of Ray Durham’s departure, the Giants second base picture has been one big mess. You can choose between the first District of Columbia-born Major Leaguer since Maury Wills (Emmnuel Burriss), the late-blooming speedster with the lead glove (Eugenio Velez) or Kevin Frandsen. Unless you’re the family of friend of one of these gentlemen, it’s hard to get particularly excited about the Giants’ decision.

Now that he’s more or less freed from the tools of ignorance, Sandoval may give the Giants some stability at third. Sandoval struck out in 17% of his plate appearance in his first year as a pro but in only 9.4% of his 154 plate appearance with the big club in 208. Look for a regression back toward the mean on that stat.

The Giants did buy Edgar Renteria at the top of the market and his bat should rebound in his 33-year-old season. Unfortunately, his bat carries his glove at shortstop where he’s very likely to contribute sub-replacement level defense.

Rich Aurilia will hit seventh against left-handers and Juan Uribe will strike out a lot and play some third and second base off the bench.

Outfield

Left fielder Fred Lewis will get on base, steal at a high rate, hit triples and deposit the occasional ball into McCovey Cove.

Center fielder Aaron Rowand will almost certainly not get the 600-plus plate appearances he has the last two seasons. Like Molina, Rowand would be a useful player on a contender but is just another bad contract with the Giants.

Right fielder Randy Winn will hit a rather empty .300 or so (especially for a corner outfielder). He will steal enough bases to impress other 35-year-olds and hopefully savor his last year as a starter and a Giant.

Nate Schierholtz and his plus arm should see time at both corners. Here’s hoping the power he had in the Minors makes an appearance in the big leagues. Upon cutting Dave Roberts and eating his $6.5 million 2009 contract, GM Brian Sabean said the move created opportunities for Velez and John Bowker.

Starting Rotation

As noted above, it will be hard to out-pitch a rotation of Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez. Bad things can happen to a very young ace following a big increase in innings pitched, two grizzled vets and two somewhat unproven commodities, though. Still, this unit could be the best in baseball.

Bullpen

Bullpen performance is notoriously erratic but Brian Wilson, Merkin Valdez, Alex Hinshaw and Sergio Romo gave Giants fans some piece of mind in 2008. Valdez’s injury shows that 2009 may be a different story. That shouldn’t stop Giants fans from being optimistic here.

Around the Horn With the San Francisco Giants

Best Case Scenario…

The Rockies and Padres bottom out and the Giants finish in third despite themselves. Along the way, the team leads the league in strikeouts, fewest runs allowed and AARP subscriptions. Schierholtz blossoms and gives Winn more time to count his money. Sandoval sticks at third base. The front office sits on its collective hands and Angel Villalona shows Giants fans that first base help is on the way from San Jose (and probably Norwich, Connecticut). Burriss’ story inspires Congress to grant the District statehood without giving Utah another representative and that stupid gun amendment.

Worst Case Scenario…

The rotation’s injury risks are realized. Winn, Molina, Aurilia, Uribe and the Big Unit sign long-term deals. The Giants lead the league in glasses of cab spilled on khaki pants.

Breakthrough Performance…
Nate Schierholtz

Cain or Sanchez are safe choices but let’s go out on a limb and say Schierholtz gets a lot more aggressive and hits more than 20 home runs.

Ready to Rebound…
Edgar Renteria

Are you familiar with the term “dead cat bounce”?

Ready to Disappoint…
Pablo Sandoval

As previously noted, Sandoval’s BABIP was high and the sample size of 154 plate appearances was small. He’s certainly no lock to stick at third base and wasn’t even among Baseball America’s Top 30 Giants prospects in 2008.

I hate to say it but keep an eye on Lincecum as well. His 227 innings in 2008 were almost 50 more than 2007.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Giants make an absolutely terrible deadline deal for a first baseman who is well past his prime.

Be Shocked If…

The youth movement continues without Brian Sabean finding some way to derail it.

In the Next Three Years…

It’s hard to be optimistic about the Giants without a shake-up in the front office. However, it’s hard not to be psyched about a ‘12 rotation of Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Alderson and (because his contract goes that long) Zito or Sanchez throwing to Posey. Villalona, second baseman Nick Noonan and third baseman Conor Gillaspie may join Posey as contributors to a competitive 2012 squad or they could disappoint as prospects do from time to time.

Official “Splash Hits” total at AT&T Park…

47… although 18 more if you count opposing players who have dunked one into McCovey Cove on the fly. Bonds owns 35 of them and only Winn (1), Lewis (1) and Bowker (1) on the active roster have done it. Felipe Crespo, Michael Tucker and Ryan Klesko did it twice as Giants and Klesko is the only player to send a souvenir to McCovey Cove as a Giant and as a member of the opposition.

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We’re through six previews at BDD and the links follow in case you want to get caught up on what you missed…

Previews of the Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles

Tomorrow — Timm Davis gets the Atlanta Braves in a rundown