Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, March 5, 2009 at 5:01 am

The Baltimore Orioles probably don’t mind following the Pirates on our preview schedule since their 11 consecutive losing seasons pales in comparison to Pittsburgh’s 16. A promising season turned awful last year but the Orioles managed to get younger and add some talented free agents to this year’s edition but does Brian Joseph think the O’s stand any chance in the powerful American League East? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2009, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Baltimore Orioles.

—————-

Baltimore Orioles

‘08 Record: 68-93, 5th in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 73-88 (-5)
Current PECOTA Projection: 76-86, 4th in AL East

—————-

‘08 Recap

Through 124 games in ‘08, it looked like the Orioles turned a corner. Sure, they weren’t the “feel good” story that the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays were but they were just two games under .500 after their August 17th win over the Tigers.

Then, the roof caved in, the bottom fell out and the ship sank for the O’s. Baltimore finished out the season with a 7-30 including 3-22 against American League East foes.

Despite the collapse, there were bright spots. It started early with the five-player bounty the club hauled from the Mariners in exchange for Erik Bedard. The deal paid off immediately. George Sherrill took over the closer reigns and was an All-Star before an injury hampered him in the second half and young Adam Jones showed off signs of a promising future. In addition, the team picked up three pitching prospects — Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolo and Tony Butler — and all showed potential.

The Orioles also turned shortstop Miguel Tejada into five players from the Houston Astros. Luke Scott, Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate all were contributors in 2008 and the jury is still out on what Troy Patton or Mike Costanzo might add in the future.

The pitching staff — especially the starting rotation — was the team’s most glaring weakness. The Orioles finished with the third highest ERA in the Majors at 5.40 (behind the Rangers (5.97) and Pirates (5.46)). Only Jeremy Guthrie posted an ERA below 5.00 among Baltimore pitchers who made five or more starts in 2008.

The departure at short of Tejada wasn’t all good. They never found an answer to fill the spot. Five different players started at least 25 games there last year and none of those are likely to make the 2009 edition. Also, five Orioles logged at least 145 games which may explain why the team appeared to tire down the stretch.

2009 Outlook

Like most of their division, the Orioles improved their outlook from 2008 to 2009. They got younger, deeper and came up with a shortstop solution. They didn’t improve as much as the New York Yankees (or spend as much cash) and still aren’t as good as the Boston Red Sox or Tampa Bay Rays but saying Baltimore might find their way out of the American League East cellar if a few things fall their way is not a stretch.

The Orioles accomplished some but not all of their offseason objectives. They were one of the odd men out in the “Mark Teixeira Sweepstakes” and while they added Japanese import Koji Uehara to compliment staff ace Jeremy Guthrie, the rest of the rotation is uncertain and the candidates are mostly unproven.

Manager Dave Trembley enters his third season as Orioles skipper with arguably his best team. Despite their prolonged end-of-year slump, Trembley was given a vote of confidence with an extension through this year and a club option for 2010.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

The O’s ditched Ramon Hernandez after three years and signed free agent Gregg Zaun as a temporary place holder for phenom Matt Wieters who is expected to be on the Major League roster and planted into the starting job behind the plate by mid-season at the latest. Guillermo Quiroz, Robbie Hammock and Chad Moeller all have a shot at being Zaun’s backup but their stay in Birdland will depend on the arrival of Wieters and the health of Zaun.

Infield

Aubrey Huff will get the majority of playing time at first but free agent Ty Wigginton should get in the lineup vs. lefties. Luke Scott is also an option and should grab some time here, too. Combined, the three should be an improvement over recently departed Kevin Millar who hit .234 with 20 homers and 87 OPS+.

At second, Brian Roberts has a strangle hold on the starting job and has made at least 135 starts there in each of the past five seasons. Plus, the two-time All-Star received a four-year contract extension which could finally mean the end of the yearly Roberts’ trade rumor ritual.

At short, the Orioles filled their need by signing free agent Cesar Izturis. Izturis often batted ninth in the lineup for LaRussa’s Cardinals so they didn’t seek out Izturis for his bat (although he does hit lefties quite well) but the former All-Star and Gold Glover is known for his solid defense and will get the majority of the playing time.

At third, Melvin Mora enters his 10th season with the club which makes him the longest tenured Oriole on the roster. Mora will get a lot of time but has a qualified backup in Wigginton and Huff and Ryan Freel (who they received from the Reds for Hernandez) are also able to play the hot corner.

Off the bench, Freel, Wigginton and possibly Chris Gomez will share time filling in as needed. Gomez currently has the inside track on the final roster spot but that is not set in stone.

Outfield

Right now, the club is looking at a Felix Pie/Freel platoon but don’t tell Scott that. Scott has his eyes on earning playing time in left. The Orioles wouldn’t mind if Lou Montanez plays well enough in spring training to steal a roster spot with Pie the likely one to take the fall if so. Pie would need a brutal spring, though.

In center, 23-year-old Adam Jones starts his second season with the club. The top prize in the Bedard deal, Jones made 123 starts in center and a healthy Jones could make more this year. A fractured foot caused him to miss a month late in the season and Adam was not the same upon his return. Freel and Pie will spell Jones when needed.

In right, it’s Nick Markakis. Markakis has made all but nine starts in the last two years. Combine that with his shiny six-year, $66-million contract and not only is Markakis the starter, he’s the future. The 25-year-old finished first in times on base (283), second in walks (99), third in doubles (48), fourth in runs (106), seventh in OPS (.897)10th in batting average (.306) in the AL in 2008.

With Jones, Markakis, Pie, Freel, Wigginton and Scott all outfield experienced, it is tough to imagine a way Montanez makes the club barring injury.

Designated Hitter

Scott is the main man for this role but occasionally Wigginton and possibly a few others who need a day off in the field will work their way into the DH spot.

Starting Rotation

After Jeremy Guthrie and addition Koji Uehara, there’s an all-out battle for the final three spots. Initially, lefty Rich Hill was the favorite but he’s already been slowed by an injury. Mark Hendrickson also might pick up a spot but there’s talk of him being used as a swingman out of the pen. Matt Albers will get a good look but is rehabbing a torn labrum. Also in the mix: David Pauley, Danys Baez, Radhames Liz, Troy Patton, Hayden Penn, Chris Waters, John Parrish and Brad Hennessey. Last week, Baltimore added recent Phillies cut Adam Eaton into the rotation competition.

Bullpen

George Sherrill has a bittersweet 2008. He emerged as the closer and saved his way to an All-Star spot then missed most of the second half with an injury. Sherrill is the closer again this year but now has former Orioles closer Chris Ray in the wings. Ray missed all of 2008 due to Tommy John surgery and, if healthy, could step in if Sherrill slips.

Ray and Jim Johnson are the set-up men and if Ray recovers and Johnson repeats his rookie success, Baltimore become formidable foes with a lead after the sixth.

The rotation battle losers along with Dennis Sarfate, Jamie Walker, Brian Bass, Jim Hoey, Bob McCrory, Kam Mickolo, Jim Miller and Alfredo Simon will form the rest of the bullpen. Sarfate made 57 appearances in 2008 and is the safest bet. The rest will be determined on how spring training plays out.

Around the Horn With the Baltimore Orioles

Best Case Scenario…

Guthrie improves and posts a winning record, Uehara is the real deal and does the same. A late season flirtation with a .500 or better record is still probably the best this team could hope for in their wildest dreams. Even if superstar-to-be Wieters is the offensive monster most expect and this lineup improves from last year, no matter how much “Orioles Magic” Birdland can conjure up, this team is unlikely to be better than any of the big three in the East.

Worst Case Scenario…

The rotation falls apart as Guthrie takes a step back, Koji flops and, like 2008, they fail to find a rotation that works. Even when the bullpen is given a lead, Sherrill turns out to be a one-hit wonder and Ray progresses slower than expected. The lineup produces but struggles against left-handed pitching but run production won’t be the problem anyway. Another last place finish and a 12th consecutive losing season for the O’s.

Breakthrough Performance…
Koji Uehara

The former Japanese All-Star is ready to show what he can do on American soil. Coming off an inconsistent 2008 with the Yomiuri Giants, some have their doubts but this writer is “Koji Krazy” and expects Baltimore to experience “Uehara Euphoria”. (Bet you expected Matt Wieters name here, didn’t you?)

Ready to Rebound…
Chris Ray

Ray was nowhere near as good in 2007 as he was in his first two professional seasons and 2008 was wiped out because of the surgery. With a full year off, the 27-year-old is primed to rebound for a successful 2009 campaign. (The Orioles are due for a pitcher to rebound from injury, aren’t they?)

Ready to Disappoint…
Felix Pie

Visa issues delayed Pie’s arrival to spring training and did he really do enough in Chicago to warrant first crack at the starting job in left? He’ll make the Opening Day roster but another slow start at the Major League level is likely to push Trembley to one of his handful of options. Sure, his early spring training numbers look good and his Minor League stats are stellar but it hasn’t translated to the bigs yet. Unless you call a lifetime .223 average something to get excited about.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Trade rumors involving Brian Roberts continue… and he doesn’t get traded! (Of course!)

Be Shocked If…

Manager Dave Trembley picks the right combination of three starters to fill the back end of the rotation out of spring training. Actually, there should be more confidence in Trembley nailing the Pick 3 of the Maryland Lottery twice in April than in him picking the guys with the right stuff to round out the rotation. Last year, the Orioles used 13 different starters during the season and the original five-man rotation of Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen, Steve Trachsel and Brian Burres made just 94 of those 161 starts.

In the Next Three Years…

Wieters becomes a superstar and along with Markakis, Jones and Roberts, this lineup is dangerous. How far that takes them depends on the development of their young pitching prospects. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta all have top-end of the rotation stuff and could make their way there by Opening Day ‘12. Guthrie, Johnson and Pie should all still be locked into contracts and the free agency of Sherrill could be avoided if Baltimore decides he’s the future in the closer role. That’s not a bad core group on paper.

Proof the Best Things in Life Are Free…

A new Orioles promotion grants all fans who register at their website a free ticket during their birth month (with special provisions for birthdays outside of the regular season). In a time when many teams get it wrong when it comes to their fans, the Orioles Public Relations department typically gets it right. Maybe they should put some of them in charge of solving their rotation problems. (Sorry, Red Sox and Yankee fans, those games are ineligible for the promotion.)

—————

Five down, 25 to go. Missed the first four? Shame on you! We’ll give you the links (this time!):

Here’s Jeff Lubber’s Washington Nationals preview
… and Timm Davis’s Seattle Mariners preview
… and Geoff Young’s San Diego Padres preview
… and Craig Brown’s Pittsburgh Pirates preview

Tomorrow — Paul Bugala previews the San Francisco Giants