Posted by Craig Brown on Wednesday, March 4, 2009 at 7:03 am

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the doorstep of history and not for a good reason. One more losing season — 2008 was their 16th straight — and they own the Major League record for most consecutive losing seasons. The last time the Pirates had a winning year (1992) Windows 3.1 had just hit computer screens, Jay Leno replaced Johnny Carson as host of “The Tonight Show” and Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana (born November 23, 1992) wasn’t even alive to see it. Does Craig Brown think the Pirates can end their run of losing seasons or should Pittsburgh fans expect yet another season of losing baseball? Read on for a quick look back at Pittsburgh’s 16th consecutive losing season, the outlook for 2009, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

‘08 Record: 67-95, 6th in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (+/-0)
Current PECOTA Projection: 64-98, 6th in NL Central

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2008 Recap

Another year, another sub .500 finish. But last year was special. Last year was the Pirates’ 16th straight season with fewer than 81 wins which tied them with the Philadelphia Phillies franchise for most consecutive seasons under .500. The Pirates finished in the basement of the NL Central with 67 wins, the third time in the last four years they hit that number on the nose. (They won 68 in 2007.) It was also their third trip to the bottom of the NL Central in four years.

While the Pirates scores some runs without getting on base all that much, their pitching just couldn’t keep them in the game. The starting rotation, with a 5.36 ERA, was abysmal. The relievers and their 4.69 ERA weren’t much better. Both marks were the worst in the National League. Some of that had to do with the lead gloves the Pirates scattered in the field behind those pitchers. The Pittsburgh defense finished 28th in defensive efficiency.

All wasn’t gloom and doom (if you looked hard enough). The Pirates did have a winning month in May (15-13), their first winning May since 2005.

Usually, the Pirates aren’t in the news much after the season begins. Last summer they swung a couple of deals with an eye toward the future to earn the club some press. In July, they traded right fielder Xavier Nady and reliever Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees for Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens and a couple of prospects in Daniel McCutchen and Jose Tabata. Then, a few days later, they worked their way into the Manny Ramirez deal. In the three-way deal, they received Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss for long-time outfielder Jason Bay. In the span of less than a week, the Bucs traded two players a year and a half away from free agency for seven players who should figure into their lineup, if not immediately, in the very near future.

2009 Outlook

For a team that lost 97 games, the Pirates were curiously quiet in the winter. That’s because they made their major moves last July, as noted above. In the off-season, they added Eric Hinske and Ramon Vazquez as free agents but both figure to have backup roles. They’ll depend on July acquisitions Moss and Andy LaRoche to play everyday and fellow July pick-ups Ohlendorf, Karstens and McCutchen are in the running to make the rotation.

After so much losing, the Pirates needed to make a major overhaul. While GM Neal Huntingdon certainly made some bold moves in dealing away two-thirds of his outfield, he’s placing a heavy bet that his young talent will develop. The Pirates need this to happen if they are to compete.

While the bats may not be there just yet, the defense was certainly improved by last season’s trades. That will be a huge benefit to the pitching staff.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Among backstops with more than 400 plate appearances last year, Ryan Doumit was second in batting average (.318), sixth in on-base percentage (.357) and fifth in slugging (.501). Defensively, there’s room for improvement. Doumit caught just 18% of all would-be base stealers last year and his .525 WP+PB/G rate was the highest among National League catchers with at least 900 innings behind the dish. But, if your catcher is swinging that kind of bat, you can overlook a couple of defensive shortcomings.

Jason Jaramillo, an off-season trade aquisition, and Robinzon Diaz, another ‘08 trade pick-up, are competing for the backup spot.

Infield

The corners will be anchored by the LaRoche brothers. Adam LaRoche is at first base and will supply the power in the heart of the order. He lost some pop after moving from Atlanta following the 2006 season, but had a rebound season last year, hitting .270/.341/.500 with 25 home runs. Adam’s never had much protection around him in the Pittsburgh lineup so his OBP and walk rates have been stagnant in his two seasons for the Pirates.

Brother Andy LaRoche is across the diamond at third. Once a top prospect in the Dodger organization, Andy was blocked by a plethora of better players and he seemed to plateau at the Triple-A level. Moved at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles and Jason Bay to the Red Sox, LaRoche is looking to prove that he can stick at the Major League level. Early returns (a line of .184/.288/.272 in over 350 plate appearances) haven’t been encouraging. He’ll bat down in the order and the Pirates will be patient as they wait for Pedro Alvarez to get some Minor League seasoning. Their patience could run out depending on how quickly Alvarez progresses.

Up the middle, the Pirates will feature Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson. Sanchez is an average defensive second baseman. His +/- is a +2 — 12th among his peers — while his 50% double play success rate ranks 15th. Wilson is an excellent defender with a +16 rating at short and a 62% double play success rate. It’s a good thing they can play defense because there’s not a lot they can accomplish at the plate. Wilson’s name came up in trade talks this winter but all rumors were quickly shot down by the alleged “interested” team. Funny how that happens.

Outfield

With Bay out of the Opening Day lineup for the first time since 2003, the speedy Nyjer Morgan looks to get the nod in left field and at the top of the Pirates lineup. He’d better get on base because with a career Minor League slugging percentage of .365 he’s certainly not hitting them over the fences, let alone the gaps. I’m always wary of a speed guy who can’t at least hit some doubles or triples.

Right field will go to Brandon Moss who was part of that LaRoche/Ramirez/Bay deal. In 45 games after the trade, he hit .222/.288/.424. After living off of American League fastballs, Moss had some difficulty adjusting to the off-speed stuff of the National League. Like Adam LaRoche, he’ll strike out a ton, so it would be prudent for them to have some space between them in the lineup.

One of the more maligned Gold Glove winners in recent memory, Nate McLouth will patrol center and anchor the lineup at the number three spot. The Pirates signed him to a three-year extension in February which bought out his arbitration years. They’ll be counting on McLouth to continue his improvement where he went .276/.356/.497 last year with a team-high 46 doubles and 26 home runs.

Newcomer Eric Hinske will backup in the outfield.

Starting Rotation

Right now, it’s Paul Maholm and four question marks. The Bucs would love for Zach Duke and Ian Snell to step forward and those two are near locks for the rotation. However, Duke has never been able to recapture the magic he flashed in his 2005 debut. With a strikeout rate of 4.6 K/9, Duke’s success comes when he keeps the ball down and gets ground ball outs. Snell throws more strikeouts but last season was hampered by an elbow injury that resulted in a jump in walk rate.

Other contenders for a starting role include Tom Grozelanny who had a walk rate of 6.0 BB/9 and saw his ERA balloon to a scary 6.66 last year. He shed 20 pounds this winter, so he assumes the spring training cliche of “Guy who shows up to camp in incredible shape” and will likely fail to live up to his expectations. Newcomers Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are in the mix as well.

Bullpen

Despite the lofty ERA, last year’s bullpen only coughed up two games when the Pirates were ahead after seven innings. Matt Capps returns (21 saves in 26 opportunities) to anchor the back of the bullpen. He’ll be set up by Tyler Yates and John Grabow.

Around the Horn with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Best Case Scenario…

Andy LaRoche blossoms into a real Major Leaguer and everyone in the starting rotation somehow has a career year.

Worst Case Scenario…

McLouth or Doumit fail to build upon their breakout seasons and the starting rotation remains a puzzle too complicated to solve.

Breakthrough Performance…
Adam LaRoche

Since McLouth and Doumit “broke through” last year, I’ll go with Adam LaRoche. Sure, he’s already had a year with more than 30 home runs but he did that in Atlanta. This is the year he puts it together in Pittsburgh.

Ready to Rebound…
Ian Snell

Snell had an elbow injury that certainly affected his control. He also had a .358 BABIP, second highest among starters last year. He’s healthy so the walks should decrease and Snell certainly has to regress to the mean as far as his BABIP goes. He should be at the front of the Pittsburgh rotation.

Ready to Disappoint…
The Rest of the Rotation

The pitchers the Pirates are counting on to arm their rotation just aren’t very good.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Pirates finish out of the basement in the Central. Houston is ripe for the passing.

Be Shocked If…

The Pirates finish above .500 and avoid sole ownership of the record for most consecutive losing seasons.

In the Next Three Years…

The Pirates have to hope they can continue to cash high first round Draft picks into top Major League talent. Andrew McCutchen is due to arrive at any moment and Alvarez will be on the fast track. Starter Brad Lincoln and Neil Walker (if they can find a position for him) are close as well. The foundation appears to be there. It will take a little more time and seasoning to bring it all together.

Projected Game for the Pirates to Officially Claim Losing Streak Record…

Game #135 vs. St. Louis on September 5. Ironically, there are fireworks scheduled at PNC Park for that game. A perfect way to cap off another losing season!

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In case you missed ‘em…

Sunday’s preview of the Washington Nationals by Jeff Lubbers
Monday’s preview of the Seattle Mariners by Timm Davis
Yesterday’s preview of the San Diego Padres by Geoff Young

Tomorrow — Brian Joseph offers up the Baltimore Orioles