Posted by Geoff Young on Tuesday, March 3, 2009 at 5:23 am

We turn the third installment of the team previews over to Geoff Young for his take on the San Diego Padres. Coincidentally, The Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual — Geoff’s annual book on the Padres — is also available starting today. After reading through his shorter BDD preview of the ‘09 Padres for BDD, we’re sure you’ll want to sink your teeth into all 254 pages of Ducksnorts. But will Geoff’s ‘09 outlook be a favorable one for the Friars? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2009, position breakdowns and more on this year’s San Diego Padres.

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San Diego Padres

‘08 Record: 63-99, 5th Place in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 68-94 (-5)
Current PECOTA Projection: 74-88, 5th Place in NL West

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2008 Recap

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. On the heels of an 89-win season, high hopes soon turned to bitter disappointment. Josh Bard, Khalil Greene, and Chris Young got hurt and were largely ineffective when healthy. Jim Edmonds forgot how to play baseball. Tadahito Iguchi proved as inept at second base as his predecessor, Marcus Giles, which as those who watched the Padres in ‘07 can attest was no easy feat. The bullpen, once home to many of Kevin Towers’ miraculous reclamation projects, fell to pieces.

The team lost 99 games in ‘08. Attendance plummeted by more than 350,000 reaching its lowest point since the Padres moved to Petco Park for the 2004 season. And we haven’t even gotten to the ownership situation.

Bright spots? Well, the season came to an end, for one. Reliever Mike Adams and center fielder Jody Gerut resurrected their careers with terrific performances. Brian Giles quietly had a monster age 37 campaign. Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy were their usual stellar selves. And did I mention that the season came to an end?

2009 Outlook

There is good news and there is bad news. The good news? The NL West doesn’t figure to be strong this year. So, in theory, anyone should have a shot. The bad news? The Padres are operating on a budget in the $40-million neighborhood which is in sharp contrast to last year’s $73 million. Thanks to these fiscal restraints, there were no big off-season moves (unless you count dumping Greene’s salary onto the Cardinals). Realistically, this team looks poised to win 70-75 games, an improvement over ‘08. On the bright side, the Padres and their fans should get some clarification on which of the organization’s young players can contribute and which cannot.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Bard, Michael Barrett and Luke Carlin are gone. Youngster Nick Hundley (no relation to former big-league catchers Todd and Randy) takes over as the everyday backstop, with Henry Blanco serving as his backup and Eliezer Alfonzo at the ready, if needed. Hundley is a solid defender with a strong arm (something the Padres have lacked at the position for many years). He won’t hit for much batting average but can knock one out of the park every now and then. (Think Jason LaRue.)

Infield

Adrian Gonzalez remains at first base where he will hit .280 with 30 homers and play excellent defense. Cliff Floyd may see occasional action here as well, although he is also left-handed and Gonzalez rarely takes a day off.

David Eckstein takes over for Iguchi at second. Eckstein has some on-base skills and his lack of arm won’t be as much of an issue now that he’s moved off shortstop.

Kevin Kouzmanoff returns at third with Chase Headley ready if something should happen. Kouzmanoff had shoulder surgery in November but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. If healthy, he is a good candidate to improve and/or be traded for pitching.

Luis Rodriguez replaces Greene at shortstop. Rule 5 draftee Everth Cabrera may push for the starting job but he’s never played above Low-A ball and most of his experience is at second. Good-glove, no-hit Sean Kazmar will be a phone call away at Triple-A.

Bench candidates include Chris Burke, Cabrera, and Edgar Gonzalez (Adrian’s older brother). Burke is the most accomplished defensively while Gonzalez is the best hitter (although Edgar sputtered in the second half of his rookie campaign).

Outfield

Left field belongs to Headley, who isn’t a left fielder. He will hit though, assuming he doesn’t hurt himself while “playing” the outfield.

Jody Gerut returns in center. Assuming last year wasn’t a fluke, he should provide above-average production on offense and defense. Will Venable who shone in a September audition while Gerut was hurt, could make a play for the job but more likely will return to Triple-A.

As has been the case since the Padres moved downtown, Brian Giles will patrol right field. He is also an excellent candidate for an in-season trade should the team find itself out of contention.

Backups will be Floyd and Scott Hairston who is comfortable in both left and center. Youngsters Venable and Drew Macias have an outside shot of making the big club, but probably will start the season at Portland.

Starting Rotation

The rotation consists of Jake Peavy, Chris Young and a whole lot of questions. Cha Seung Baek should have a spot but that’s hardly exciting. Other possibilities include Giants castoff Kevin Correia and Mexican League veteran Walter Silva, as well as youngsters Josh Geer and Wade LeBlanc. Mark Prior and Chad Reineke may also be in the mix although counting on Prior for anything would be foolish.

Bullpen

For the first time since 1993, Trevor Hoffman isn’t the Padres closer. (Well, 2003, but he was hurt that year and still with the team.) Former setup man Heath Bell gets first crack at the role this year. Bell struggled in the second half of ‘08 but reported to camp 25 pounds lighter than his listed weight in ‘08. Whether that makes a difference is anyone’s guess. The same goes for how many save opportunities there will be on this team.

Behind Bell, righties Chris Britton, Cla Meredith, and Mark Worrell (obtained in the Greene trade) all appear to be locks. Right-handers Edwin Moreno, Scott Patterson, Reineke, and Silva are also in the mix along with left-hander Justin Hampson. Last year’s most effective reliever, Mike Adams, is recovering from October shoulder surgery and is expected to be out until late may or early June.

Around the Horn with the San Diego Padres

Best Case Scenario…

If everything goes right (and I do mean everything!), the Padres could win 85 games and take the division. Kouzmanoff and Headley need to hit like vintage Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko, Gerut needs to duplicate last season’s success, Giles needs to stave off the effects of aging one more year, Peavy and Young need to make 65 starts between them, Baek needs to pitch like a legitimate #3 starter, Prior needs to stay healthy, the bullpen needs to pitch like it did in ‘07… if all these things happen, the Padres could win 85 games. Good luck with that.

Worst Case Scenario…

Hundley turns out not to be a big-league catcher, Kouzmanoff can’t tell the difference between balls and strikes, Gerut and Giles turn into pumpkins, Peavy and Young get hurt… This team is capable of losing 100 games. That isn’t the most likely outcome but it could happen.

Breakthrough Performance…
Kevin Kouzmanoff

I have an irrational confidence in Kouzmanoff. His strike-zone judgment was atrocious last year but he hits the ball hard to all fields and he never gets down on himself.

Ready to Rebound…
Chris Young

He was a force in ‘07. Though a return to those levels might be too much to expect, Young should be able to provide 180 innings of 3.50 ERA… I hope.

Ready to Disappoint…
Chase Headley

The good thing about having no expectations is that it’s difficult to disappoint. I’ll go with Headley just because some people might have crazy hopes for him. Think .260 with 20-25 homers.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

At least one of Giles or Kouzmanoff is traded during the season.

Be Shocked If…

The Padres get any production out of the shortstop position.

In the Next Three Years…

The big keys for the Padres going forward are stabilizing the ownership situation and continuing to invest in young players, both through the draft and via international signings. Assuming that new owner Jeff Moorad shows the same dedication that he did in Arizona, the team should be in good shape on the ownership front. In terms of the farm system, the Padres have been drafting better in recent years under the guidance of Grady Fuson. The club’s new Dominican facility also has helped attract prospects from around the world. There isn’t a lot of high-end talent in the system right now — Kyle Blanks, Mat Latos and maybe Jaff Decker, Jonathan Galvez, and Kellen Kulbacki — but there is more depth than in recent years. If the Padres can build on that foundation, specifically focusing on impact players up the middle and power arms, they could return to contention sooner rather than later.

Back to the Current Padres, Their #1 Priority…

Thanks to a poor showing in ‘08 and even worse public relations (“Hey, let’s trade Peavy!”), many fans have lost faith in the franchise. The new ownership group will have its hands full trying to restore public trust. Regardless of how the team plays on the field, Moorad’s number one priority is to renew fan interest in the team and get people back out to the ballpark. This may prove challenging in the current economy but it must be done: Without the fans, there can be no team.

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In case you missed them…
Sunday’s preview of the Washington Nationals by Jeff Lubbers
Yesterday’s preview of the Seattle Mariners by Timm Davis

Tomorrow — Craig Brown breaks down the Pittsburgh Pirates