Posted by Timm Davis on Monday, March 2, 2009 at 4:41 am

BDD’s month-long Team Preview series continues with Timm Davis’s take on the Seattle Mariners. The first team to spend $100-million and lose 100 games have revamped their lineup with 13 new faces to the 40-man roster but will that be enough to turn things around? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2009, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Seattle Mariners.

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Seattle Mariners

‘08 Record: 61-101, 4th in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (-6)
Current PECOTA Projection: 73-89, 4th in AL West

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2008 Recap

Where do you start with a 101-loss season? During the course of said season both Manager John McLaren and General Manager Bill Bavasi were sent packing. They handed out crippling contracts to guys like Carlos Silva (4 years, $48 million) and acted like the keystone cops of the American League West. They traded a mass of prospects including top outfield prospect Adam Jones to the Baltimore Orioles for Erik Bedard and his history of injuries. In return, Bedard failed to pitch over 200 innings once again as the ace of the Mariners staff would only pitch 81 innings as a Mariner in 2008. The move proved to be a horrible one.

Once McLaren was fired, the reigns of the team were handed over to bench coach Jim Riggleman who people thought might be the answer and shake things up. He did at the outset then settled into the same rut McLaren had settled into before him. Like McLaren, Riggleman valued veteran grittiness over the young talent. (How many times do you bat Jose Vidro clean-up before you realize that he can barely get the ball out of the infield? And does it really take almost all season to figure out that Richie Sexson wasn’t the guy they signed back in 2005 and now his major contribution was horrible defense and a stick?)

The Mariners won just eight games in the month of May and the same could be said about September where they also added in a 13-game losing streak. The dog days of summer dragged on endlessly if you were a Mariners fan, i was in a word, brutal.

There were some bright spots (though not many). Ichiro continued to be a hitting machine with 200-plus hits for the eighth season in a row. King Felix pitched ovfer 200 innings and pitched well even if his record (9-11) didn’t show it. People tend to forget that Felix is only 22 and still learning despite the high expectations put on him. With the addition of Bedard, some pressure was supposed to be taken off of Hernandez’s shoulders but Bedard’s 81 innings forced Felix to again bear the load. (It wasn’t like Jarrod Washburn or Silva were much help, either.)

Another bright spot came during Interleague Play when the Mariners visited Shea to face the New York Mets. King Felix came to bat with the bases loaded against Mets ace Johan Santana and smashed a shocking grand slam. Pitcher Brandon Morrow came into his own as the team’s set up guy out of the pen. Toward the end of the season, Morrow was sent back to Triple-A to stretch his stamina for a spot in the starting rotation. While not as effective as the Mariners would have liked, the 24-year-old nearly no-hit the Yankees in his first Major League start.

The Mariners finished 25th in the Majors in ERA (4.73), just behind the league’s worst team, the Washington Nationals. Silva and Washburn combined for a 9-29 record. The starting rotation notched only four complete games and finished 29th in the Majors in shutouts with four. Seattle also ranked in the middle of the pack in saves with 36 as a team. This was due to a combination of rare late inning leads and Opening day closer J.J. Putz going on and off the DL for most of the season.

There was also clubhouse turmoil. Washburn threw Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima under the bus to the press on several occasions finally forcing Riggleman to use either Jamie Burke or top catching prospect Jeff Clement on days Washburn pitched. It also didn’t help that Johjima who came in fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting in his debut season, showed serious decline and posted a tiny OPS+ of 64.

All in all, 2008 was a season the Mariners (and their fans) would love to forget!

2009 Outlook

Well, after a 101-loss season, things should look up, right?

They might. But not enough to topple the Angels at the top of the American League West. There’s a new sheriff in town as the GM spot was filled by Jack Zduriencik from the Milwaukee Brewers organization. Interim manager Riggleman was told his services were no longer needed and the Mariners hired first-time manager Don Wakamatsu who had served as the Oakland A’s hitting coach in 2008. The hiring was historic as Wakamatsu became the first Asian-American manager to serve in the Major Leagues.

The biggest thing the Mariners and their fans have to look forward to is the return of “The Kid”. For the first time in a decade, Ken Griffey Jr. will don a Mariners uniform. After waffling back and forth between the Atlanta Braves and Mariners, Griffey decided to return to where it all started. Though this isn’t the same Griffey that left a decade ago.

Once again, the M’s are picked to finish dead last in the American League West. They could surprise but not enough to get past the A’s or Angels. I’ve personally got them penciled in for a 74-88 record which is near what Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA has them down for.

For the Mariners to make a run for it and surprise everyone and their dog, the planets are going to need to align and everyone needs to deliver a career year. As much as I’d like to put on my teal-tinted glasses, this just isn’t a team that’s going anywhere and will be a true test of new manager Wakamatsu and his brand new coaching staff.

The 2009 version of the Mariners can make things interesting in the West… but don’t expect miracles. As mentioned before, too many things have to go right for the M’s to make a good showing, though they could play spoiler and dash other team’s playoff dreams.

The 2009 Team

Catcher

Wakamatsu has already decided that the starting backstop job is Kenji Johjima’s to lose. This decision means Jeff Clement will be riding the pine until Johjima shows off shades of last season. Both catchers have questionable defensive abilities with the best defensive catcher — Rob Johnson — staying in Triple-A. Rumblings that Clement would see time at Designated Hitter are likely out the door with the signing of Griffey. As it is, Clements has been taking grounders at first base.

Infield

At least two infield positions are in flux: first base and second base. Honestly, I don’t think Jose Lopez will lose the second sack gig but he’s going to have to watch his back. His occasional boneheaded play might cost him early on. When his head is in the game, he’s a good defensive second baseman but when he decides to mentally take the day off, his glove turns to iron. It’s a brutal sight.

First base is also in flux. Right now, it looks like Russell Branyan and Mike Sweeney will hold down first base. Well, if Sweeney turns his Minor League invite to camp into a roster spot. If not, Clement, who has been taking reps at first, could see some time versus right-handed pitching. I could see Branyan getting the bulk of the playing time, though.

Shortstop will be manned by Yuniesky Betancourt. Despite his UZR of -13.3, Betancourt cut down on his errors from the year before but not by much (23 to 20 from ‘07 to ‘08). The last time he had a positive UZR was in 2006 with a 2.0. According to John Dewan’s +/-, Yuni posted a -19 and showed serious problems going to his left where he was -21. Book him for a .270 to .280 average but not a lot of pop (25 home runs in four years). Most projection systems have him at about .310 on-base percentage.

Holding down the hot corner is Adrian Beltre, returning from two off-season surgeries. Even playing in pain basically everyday, Beltre was the best defensive third baseman in the Majors. His +/- was tops in the league at +31 and he was second to Rays rookie Evan Longoria according to UZR. The scary thing is this could be the last season for Beltre in the blue and teal. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year and if the M’s are out of it by the Mid-Summer Classic, look for Beltre to be sent packing in exchange for youth.

Outfield

Once Riggleman took over the reigns of the good ship Mariner in 2008, one of his first moves was to move Ichiro back to his home in right field. I think trying to cover the entire outfield from center was a bit wearing on Ichiro last year. (When you have to constantly cover Raul Ibanez’s butt, it’s a bit draining.)

Pencil in Ichiro for 200 hits (by now it’s a given). Also, be on the look-out for “Ichiro is selfish” articles from the MSM. They don’t understand how the guy works (and he’s been in the league for what, eight years?). He’s going to provide plus defense and so far the whole “aging” thing hasn’t totally caught up with him… yet.

In center will be newcomer Franklin Gutierrez. He can play all three outfield positions but is penciled in as the starting centerfielder. Last year for the Indians, Gutierrez played in 134 games and went through some rough patches at the plate and only posted a .307 on-base percentage and just eight home runs, down from 13 in 2007. He’s due for a bounce-back year with his new surroundings even though Safeco isn’t very kind to right-handed hitters.

Left field could get interesting. Before the signing of Ken Griffey Jr., it was pretty much a given that Endy Chavez would be the regular in left to replace the horrible glove and decent bat of Raul Ibanez that is now playing for the Phillies in the National League East. It looks as though Griffey will not only get playing time in left but also at DH as well… but we’ll get back to that. The problem here is this Griffey is old, slow and can’t really play the field anymore. Mike Morse might even get some innings in left which is something that shouldn’t happen. The best bet here is to have Chavez be the full time left fielder and have Griffey (if they must) fill in.

Designated Hitter

So much to choose from here. Griffey will surely see time at DH. His best asset is facing right-handed pitching as he’s shown in the past few years he’s having trouble facing his own kind. The thinking before Griffey was signed (notice a trend here yet?) was to use Clement at DH when he wasn’t catching. Now, not so much. Sweeney could be the one facing left-handed pitching as Griffey’s platoon partner.

Starting Rotation

There’s still a lot of question marks concerning the rotation. Most of the regular faces are thee but most come with a “?” next to their name. Can Erik Bedard stay healthy and pitch near 200 innings? Can Brandon Morrow survive on two pitches? Jarrod Washburn??? (Honestly, they should have traded him and his albatross of a contract away when they had the chance.) Can a slimmed down Carlos Silva provide league average at best pitching (speaking of an albatross of a contract)? And then there’s the King. Felix Hernandez will be counted on to be the ace of the staff (because you can’t count on Bedard to do that even though one of the reasons they brought him in was to take some weight off of Felix’s shoulders).

Hernandez and Bedard MUST remain healthy for a reasonable amount of time for the starting rotation to be successful. With Washburn and Silva, you just cross your fingers and hope they stop sucking (I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were you).

Bullpen

Over the last few years, the M’s have been able to put together a good pen on the cheap. Gone are J.J. Putz and Sean Green and with Putz gone that means the closer job is wide open with no clear front-runner. Miguel Batista, David Aardsma, Tyler Walker and Mark Lowe are just a couple of the names battling it out to be the team’s closer. I’d put my money on either Lowe or Batista by the time the dust settles. Don’t forget that Josh Fields recently signed and could be a dark horse candidate though my money says he starts the season with Triple-A Tacoma.

As far as the rest of the bullpen is concerned, it’s filled with good, cheap arms. Roy Corcoran put up some great numbers and surprised a lot of people (including your truly) last year. Plus, whomever doesn’t get the closer gig will be part of a pretty solid bullpen. It’s possible a guy like Randy Messenger sneaks his way into the bullpen and provide some help, too. If there’s one thing on this team not to worry about outside of Ichiro, it’s the Mariners bullpen.

It’s up to the rotation to keep opposing teams at bay because this bullpen can shorten games to six innings if given the chance. But that’s a really big if when discussing the likes of Washburn and Silva.

Around the Horn with the Seattle Mariners

Best Case Scenario…

The moons align and everything comes together. Seriously, best case? The rotation gels and becomas a pitching juggernaut and the M’s sneak into the Wild Card spot. Oh! Best case and not dream scenario? Sorry about that. They could end the year at .500 if everything goes their way an play spoiler to otherwise playoff-bound teams.

Worst Case Scenario…

A repeat of last year? Seriously, after a 101-loss season, anything is going to be better. Though things could really go down the tubes and they could post more than 101 losses.

Breakthrough Performance…
Endy Chavez

I’m going to call Chavez’s number here. The last couple of years haven’t been the greatest but look for him to return to his 2006 form when he hit over .300 and got on base at around the .340 mark. He’ll show Wakamatsu and the M’s front office that it’s best he be the regular left fielder and shouldn’t share playing time even if it is only for his defense.

Ready to Rebound…
Kenji Johjima

This was a tough one as I teetered between Johjima and Miguel Batista. But I’m going to go with Joh. When he first arrived from Japan, some writers and sites tabbed him “The Japanese Johnny Bench” which was something I just couldn’t swallow. But he can’t be as bad as he was last year so look for a rebound from Johjima and hopefully Washburn won’t throw him under the bus again this season.

Ready to Disappoint…
Ken Griffey Jr.

I’m going to say it and you can send hate mail to me. A lot of people are going to get caught up in the nostalgia (thus raising expectations) until they come back down to Earth and notice that Junior is a mere shell of what he used to be.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Adrian Beltre isn’t in a Mariners uniform after the Trade Deadline.

Be Shocked if…

The Mariners place higher than 4th in the AL West. Really, it’s going to be a duel between Texas and Seattle for the AL West cellar.

In the Next Three Years…

Look for the M’s to somehow shed the contracts of Washburn and Silva and Morrow to dominate in the rotation along with King Felix. Solid talent will make it’s way up from the depths of the Minors with guys like Mike Carp and Greg Halman (to name a couple) making an impact. It’s an uphill battle that could pay off in spades in the coming three years.

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In case you missed it… yesterday’s preview of the Washington Nationals by Jeff Lubbers
Tomorrow — Geoff Young’s spin on the San Diego Padres