Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Sunday, March 1, 2009 at 7:21 am

BDD’s month-long Team Preview kicks off with Jeff Lubbers’ preview of the Washington Nationals. Baseball’s worst team in 2009 have nowhere to go but up but how far up will they go? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2009, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Washington Nationals.

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Washington Nationals

‘08 Record: 59-102, 5th in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 61-100 (-2)
Current PECOTA Projection: 75-87, 4th in NL East

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2008 Recap

The Nationals could not have started the season on a higher note after opening their new ballpark with a Ryan Zimmerman walk-off homer run in the bottom of the ninth on March 30th to beat the Braves by a score of 3-2.

However, not much went right for the team on the field, off the field or in the seats after Opening Day. The team stumbled to an 11-17 record in the month of April after a 3-0 start and finished with a record of 59-102 — worst for a Nationals/Expos team since 1976. While playing in digs much more alluring than RFK Stadium, Nationals Park did not exactly receive a warm welcome as attendance was significantly down from what teams have come to expect from the first year of a new stadium. Upset with the District of Columbia for what they felt was unfinished work on the new park, the Nationals withheld rent payments to the city, forcing D.C. to foot the bill for nearly the entire stadium.

Before the season started the team took some positive steps by getting younger and trading for players who were more likely to help the team further down the road if not right away (Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes). But the roster was still loaded with players unlikely to contribute much more than replacement-level production (Aaron Boone, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, et al.).

On the plus side, the team’s four-year investment in 2005 of Cristian Guzman, paid off for the first time. The Nats took this as the perfect time to follow the club mantra of “buying high” — see Young, Dmitri or Lopez, Felipe — as Guzman parlayed his All-Star season into a lucrative two-year extension.

A recap of 2008 can not go without a mention of the team’s injury woes which included a significant loss of playing time to some of the only players familiar to casual baseball fans outside of the nation’s capital (Nick Johnson, Chad Cordero, Ryan Zimmerman).

2009 Outlook

Currently, the biggest story involving the Nationals circles around the federal investigation surrounding the circumstances of the signing of Carlos Daniel Alvarez Lugo out of the Dominican Republic and whether General Manager Jim Bowden will keep his job. Regardless of how these issues are resolved, the team still has question marks across the board. (Update: Within hours of this preview being published, Bowden resigned from his position as the club’s GM.)

Signing Adam Dunn was a significant and crucial move for the Nationals. While Ryan Zimmerman should still be considered the face of the franchise, it was vital for the team to bring in a player with some national recognition who can contribute and give the Nationals the appearance of an organization that wants to win. The Nats appeared to make an honest effort to lure Mark Teixeira to D.C. although few were suprised when he did not sign with the club. Despite that setback, the Nationals settled for what was probably a more realistic accomplishment — sign a second-tier free agent who could provide the franchise legitimacy. If nothing else, it kept alive the punchline regarding Bowden’s infatuation with former Reds’ players.

THE ‘09 TEAM

CATCHER

Former Rule 5 pick Jesus Flores received more playing time in 2008 than most expected. He’s not an offensive powerhouse but Flores puts up more than respectable numbers for a 24-year-old catcher. Plus, his defense is adequate if not spectacular, although he did finish tied for third in passed balls last year while logging far fewer innings than those above him on the leaderboard. Journeyman Wil Nieves figures to be the backup.

INFIELD

Adam Dunn is sure to do what he does best: Walk, strike out, hit home runs… and drive traditionalists nuts! The team has tentatively committed to playing Dunn at first although the scenario does not seem set in stone this early in camp. Sticking him at first base would likely minimize, though not completely eliminate, his substandard defense. It would, however, minimize the comparisons between Dunn (6′6″, 240 lbs.) and the city’s favorite hometown left fielder from the days of yore, Frank Howard (6′7″, 255 lbs. in his playing days with the Senators).

Continuity at first base will also get Ronnie Belliard back to his normal spot at second base. Last year, Belliard saw more action at a position (first base) other than second base for the first time in his ten-year career. He is not the long-term answer for the team but two consecutive years of an OPS+ of 100 or more makes him an asset for the time being. In addition, Belliard received one of the few contract extensions to Nats’ veterans to actually work out favorably for the franchise.

Cristian Guzman’s surprising 2008 campaign appeared even better for fans forced to sit through the cluelessness that plagued him during his 53 OPS+ 2005 season. It would not even be entirely accurate to call it a return to the Guzman of old since he posted career highs in batting average and on-base percentage (excluding his injury-shortened 2007 season) while swiping fewer bases and a continuing defensive decline from what he displayed in his “hey” day with the Twins. Looking further ahead, Guzman appears to be keeping the position warm for 23-year-old Ian Desmond with whom the club may be growing impatient with as he slowly inches toward Major League readiness.

Few players on the team have as much to prove in 2009 as Ryan Zimmerman. While still displaying spectacular defense, the trend often avoided in discussions among Nationals’ fans is the decline in offensive output from Zimmerman. Much of 2008 was lost to a shoulder injury and the comparisons between Zimmerman and former AAU teammate David Wright have long since evaporated. Zimmerman needs a solid 2009 season for himself and his long-term status with the club as much as the club needs him to rebound.

Given the Nationals’ luck, Dunn’s arrival is also likely to mean a healthy season for the suddenly position-less Nick Johnson who, in his professional career, has yet to manage a season preview written about him without the inclusion of the words “healthy” and “if”.

OUTFIELD

While the infield is mostly set, the outfield is anything but. At least one player with expectations of starting will leave camp in a bench role.

Lastings Milledge is about the only sure thing in the outfield and figures to start in center in Washington for the next few years. While his star has lost some shine from his days as a five-tool prospect with the New York Mets, Milledge has shown enough flashes of brilliance mixed in with the slumps and inferior defense to warrant playing time for the immediate future.

Elijah Dukes got the latter half of the “Stay Healthy + Stay Out of Trouble = Playing Time” equation correct in 2008 and posted more than respectable numbers when on the field. As long as he holds up his end of the behavior bargain again in 2009, he stands to start the season in right field.

Newly acquired Josh Willingham posted an OPS+ over 100 in each of the last three seasons with the Florida Marlins (although last year was limited to 102 games) so it’s hard to believe the Nationals traded for him (along with Scott Olsen) to sit him on the bench.

That leaves the team with veteran Austin Kearns, 2008 surprise Willie Harris, and the unfulfilled expectations of Wily Mo Pena all starting the season on the bench. Additionally, if Nick Johnson is able to stay healthy (told you it couldn’t happen) and he remains in a Nationals uniform, it’s hard to see how the team would not find a place for him in the lineup possibly moving Dunn back to the outfield.

STARTING ROTATION

Even after three straight years of finishing in the bottom of four in the National League in starters’ ERA, the Nationals starting rotation has shown little, if any, improvement. The team recently released 2008 Opening Day starter Odalis Perez after he failed to show to Spring Training due to a contract dispute. While it’s hard to fault the team for cutting ties with Perez, it did leave the team without one of its better starters in 2008. One of the team’s biggest surprises in 2008, lefty John Lannan, becomes the team’s ace by default. Former Marlin Scott Olsen adds some credibility to the rotation as well. After Lannan and Olsen, the rotation is full of question marks including Shawn Hill, newly acquired Daniel Cabrera (whose K/9 rate amazingly dropped by more than half from 2006 to 2008) and 22-year-old Collin Balester. Prospect Jordan Zimmerman figures to at least make an appearance by the end of the year as well.

BULLPEN

The Nationals’ bullpen went from team strength to a team problem in a short period of time. After the trade of Jon Rauch last year, the team did seem to find its closer of the foreseeable future in Joel Hanrahan. After holding on to their chips too long while dangling Chad Cordero’s services in 2006 and 2007, the team wound up with nothing after he was released following an injury-riddled 2008 campaign although the club may still re-sign him for 2009.

Other names in the bullpen include the mostly unrecognizable Steven Shell, Jason Bergmann, Saul Rivera, and Garrett Mock.

While few in the organization wished the team was still playing at pitching-friendly RFK Stadium, the irony is the 2009 version of the Nationals may be better suited for RFK. The team’s glaring weakness is still pitching which would at least be somewhat mitigated at RFK, especially with the current starting rotation’s inability to strike out hitters. Additionally, the team’s current offense would not be as affected with players like Dunn and Dukes in the lineup who, when healthy, can produce regardless of a ballpark’s dimensions.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Best Case Scenario…
The chances the team took on younger players works out more often than not — especially for Cabrera and Dukes — while the veterans produce at expected levels AND they stay healthy. More than anything else, the team needs another surprise success story to come from the rotation similar to Lannan’s 2008… and they get it from someone!

Worst Case Scenario…
Injuries continue to keep the team’s better players off the field. While the Nationals have a surplus at some positions, a repeat of 2008’s position shuffling would lead to another National disaster.

Breakthrough Performance…
Elijah Dukes
He kept fans focused on his playing ability and if Dukes remains healthy and maintains his production from an injury-shortened 2008, it will be a classic Bowden success story of taking a chance on a risky but talented player.

Ready to Rebound…
Ryan Zimmerman
For a fan base desperate to find something positive in its three non-contending seasons since moving to D.C., Zimmerman has become a fan favorite with both his glove and his bat. Now that he’s not the sole run produces in the lineup with Dunn in town, perhaps Ryan won’t feel the burden of the franchise on his shoulders and will consistently produce with the bat while still impressing with the glove.

Ready to Disappoint…
Teddy Roosevelt… and Scott Olsen
His K/9 rate plunged in 2008 and his BABIP of .261 last year, second lowest among N.L. ERA qualifiers, is unlikely to stay so low.

Don’t Be Surprised If…
The team holds off on trading Nick Johnson after being unimpressed with offers from other teams for a 30-year-old with a career OPS+ of 125. Such a situation might become the latest distraction for the Nationals but they could easily become gun shy when deciding whether to unload Johnson and his reasonable $5.5-million salary.

Be Shocked If…
The team finishes higher than 4th in the National League East. Both the rotation and bullpen will keep this team in the lower half of the division and any realistic prediction of their 2009 performance should reach the conclusion that the pitching will continue to be substandard.

In the Next Three Years…
Management continues to stay the course with the long-term plan of developing the team from the bottom up and fans get more and more anxious while watching a Quadruple-A team playing in their new, taxpayer-funded stadium. The good news? The Nationals jumped from 30th in 2007 to 9th in 2008 in Baseball America’s Organizational Rankings. However, the team features only one player (Jordan Zimmerman at #41) among BA’s Top 100 prospects. While this cannot remain an organizational excuse indefinitely, the team is still hurting from its mismanagement while a ward of the league in Montreal. Plus, refusing to come to terms with its top pick in the 2008 draft (Aaron Crow) begs the question: How committed are the Nationals to their long-term plan?

The team needs to commit to Zimmerman provided he stay healthy and reverses his offensive decline. The development of more pitching through the farm system will also be key to the team’s future success. For the areas of the team where they will not be able to produce homegrown talent, the team needs to leverage the fact that the D.C. region will likely be hurting less economically than other metropolitan areas with MLB teams and use that financial advantage to continue to sign legitimate talent as they did this offseason with Dunn.

The Next Veteran to Ride a Hot Streak to an Undeserved Contract Extension Will Be…
It’s a toss up between Nick Johnson and Daniel Cabrera with Wily Mo Pena as a dark horse candidate.

Tomorrow — Timm Davis’s take on the Seattle Mariners