Posted by Rob McQuown on Friday, February 20, 2009 at 12:40 am

Get out the prospect books for Round Six, as several more players who’ve yet to debut are selected:

1. Kevin Goldstein – Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric San Inocencio – Robinson Cano
3. Brian Joseph – Nate McLouth
4. Joe Hamrahi – Scott Kazmir
5. Melissa Lockard – Buster Posey
6. Eric Seidman – Alex Rios
7. Johanna Wagner – Elvis Andrus
8. Bill Baer – Yunel Escobar
9. Michael Street – Clayton Kershaw
10. Cory Schwartz – Yovani Gallardo
11. John Burnson – Kevin Slowey
12. Rob McQuown – Jake Peavy

1. Kevin Goldstein: Pedro Avarez (3b, PIT, age 22)

In excellent shape at camp, going to cruise thru the minors and be an impact big league hitter in short order.

2. Eric San Inocencio: Robinson Cano (2b, NYA, age 25)

Time to take a bit of a chance here, I’ll select Robinson Cano. Just a year ago, there was a debate ranging as to whether Cano could become one of the top offensive second baseman in the game. I wrote a debate piece arguing his merits over BJ Upton (many folks called Cano the “surer” bet) so the talent is there for a resurgence. My hope is that he can replicate his 2007 season (.303, 19 HRs) and re-establish himself as a good hitter at the second base position.

3. Brian Joseph: Nate McLouth (of, PIT, age 27)

Let me continue to fill up my outfield and lock up CF with this selection. This came down to two players and I may end up selecting the other at some point so I won’t mention him but I settled on Nate McLouth of the Pittsburgh Pirates. McLouth’s speed, power ability to lead off and play center and his age — 27 this year — all made him an attractive choice. McLouth did struggle at times last year but was also fantastic more than he struggled. I know many were critical of the Gold Glove he received and I agree that McLouth didn’t really deserve the award but his defense was at least average and at times better than average.

4. Joe Hamrahi: Scott Kazmir (sp, TB, age 25)

I should have known Pedro Alvarez wasn’t going to get past Goldstein. Oh well…

I know he has experienced elbow problems in the past, and he’s spent some time on the DL, but our next selection will be the hard throwing Scott Kazmir. Kazmir is still only 25 years of age and will finally get a chance to pitch a full season in front of a championship quality team in Tampa Bay. While Scott still could use help locating his pitches, he continues to blow away hitters, averaging better than a strikeout per inning in his short career. He generally keeps the ball down and has the stuff to fight his way out of big innings. He reminds us a little of Mark Langston. If his career follows a similar path, we’re in for a treat.

5. Melissa Lockard: Buster Posey (c, SF, age 21)

I’m late, but I’m going to jump on the catcher train and take Giants’ backstop Buster Posey. Posey isn’t likely to be as good as Joe Mauer or Matt Wieters, but he should be an above-average offensive and defensive backstop. And even though he was just taken in last year’s draft, I feel confident that he’ll spend most of the next six years in the majors, as the Giants haven’t been shy lately about pushing their top prospects to the majors rather quickly.

6. Eric Seidman : Alex Rios (rf, TOR, age 27)

With my pick I will select another outfielder to play with Sizemore in Alex Rios. At 28, Rios has disappointed many by not truly reaching his potential, but those disappointed likely do not realize how amazing he has been with the glove. Over the last two seasons, Rios has been worth +5 and +5.4 wins, combining solid hitting with tremendous glove-work. I’m taking him here under the impression that his fielding skills can be sustained over the next few seasons while he simultaneously turns an offensive corner.

7. Johanna Wagner: Elvis Andrus (ss, TEX, age 20)

My favorite player growing up was Dave Concepcion— his defense made my head spin, and he could hit a bit too. So it should be no surprise that when I return to my opening strategy of solidifying my infield, I go for another Venezualen short-stop, Elvis Andrus. I know his PECOTA numbers for 2009 are quite low 247 / .299 / .332 in 586 plate appearances, and their are a handful of shortstops that Goldstein would rank higher. But he is only going to be 21 in 2009, he is going to be tutored by another #13, Omar Vizquel, and his history of being the youngest in his league the last three years should all lead him to becoming the type of player that you would get for Mark Teixeira. Amd besides, every team needs a little Elvis.

8. Bill Baer: Yunel Escobar (ss, ATL, age 26)

Going into Round 6, I was certain I was going to take a shortstop, but I spent a while trying to select one. Finally, I landed on Yunel Escobar. He’s 26 and has been quite productive in his two seasons with the Atlanta Braves.

Despite a 65% increase in plate appearances from ‘07 to ‘08, Escobar’s strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up. His overall offensive production wasn’t as good, but a portion of that can be explained by a depressed BABIP (bad luck): .367 in ‘07, .312 in ‘08. His “natural” BABIP is probably somewhere in between, in the .330-.340 area.

Most of the projection systems see his OBP staying in the same area, but his SLG will bounce up a bit.

His defense last season was slightly above-average, with a UZR/150 of about 2. Combine that with an OPS that should hover around .800 next season with an even higher ceiling, and Escobar is a player that should be worth 2.5 to 3 wins above replacement on average, and with improvements and some luck, could get up around 5 within the next six seasons as he hits his prime.

9. Michael Street: Clayton Kershaw (sp, LA, age 21)

It’s past time my team picked up a pitcher, and what’s not to like about a lefty who made his major league debut before he could legally buy a beer? Clayton Kershaw (SP, LA Dodgers, 21) made the leap from AA last season and managed to rack up a DOM of 8.4, and a CMD of 2.4, picking up an even 100 Ks against 52 BBs in 107 IP. Best of all, he got better as the year progressed. He’s got a great fastball and a tight curve, and an excellent knowledge of the strike zone. Assuming he doesn’t get hit by a bus—or TJ surgery—he’s gonna be a stud.

10. Cory Schwartz: Yovani Gallardo (sp, MIL, age 22)

I’ll jump on the young pitching train as well and grab the Brewers’ budding ace, Yovanni Gallardo (SP, Milwaukee, 23). A torn ACL in his right knee limited Gallardo to only four starts last season, but that may have been a blessing in disguise, as it saved a season of
wear-and-tear on his talented right arm at a point in his career when many pitchers of his age and caliber are handling workloads
inappropriate to their age and maturity. Despite his young age, Gallardo is already viewed as a polished pitcher and has compiled an impressive 3.35 ERA in 24 career appearances, a third of a run better than league average during that time. He’s averaged over eight strikeouts per nine innings during his young career thanks to a four-pitch repertoire that he employs with excellent command, and he’s said to have clean mechanics, which should minimize the risk of arm injury over the next six seasons.

11. John Burnson: Kevin Slowey (sp, MIN, age 22)

Not a flashy guy, but he was already league-average in his first nearly full season, and I love his ultra-low walk rate (1.3 BB/9 in 160 IP) — that should buffer his ERA from misfortune in the coming years. Only 24, Slowey last year had a 5.1 K/BB — third-best in the majors among pitchers with at least 160 IP. Strikeouts are not expected from him, but he did have 361 K in 366 IP in the minors, to go along with an overall 1.94 ERA in 55 career starts. Slowey could be the second coming of Brad Radke, which, in a league with a six-year horizon, would be welcome — in Radke’s 10 seasons from ages 23-32, he topped 200 IP (with a better-than-league-average ERA) in 9 of them.

12. Rob McQuown: Jake Peavy (sp, SD, age 28)

I’m a big Jake Peavy believer, but the persistent rumors of the Padres trying to trade a guy I consider a build-around horse lent me to draft pitchers ahead of him who I thought would be more durable. The logic is that if SD wants to get rid of him, it’s likely his health isn’t quite top-notch. But the performance level when he’s healthy (which has been for 800 IP the past 4 seasons) is ridiculously high. These young pitchers who are being drafted now hope to attain Peavy’s level. Peavy had an ERA title and a strikeout crown by age 24, and added another of each – along with the NL Cy Young Award – at age 26. Sure, he’s aided by his ballpark… but ERA+ adjusts for park, and he’s been in the top 10 4 times in his career, including leading during his Cy Young season and posting an incredible 171 in ‘04 (when The Big Unit beat him out at 177). Sure, trend lines can be worrisome, and Peavy’s worst xFIP in the past 5 years was in 2008, when he finished 10th in the NL at 3.92. But he’s still striking out over 9 batters/game, and should bounce back to his elite level of dominance.

Summary Through 5 Rounds:

1. Rob McQuown – Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay,Alex Gordon, Peavy

2. John Burnson – Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, David Price, Mike Napoli, Zack Greinke, Slowey

3. Cory Schwartz -Jose Reyes, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Jay Bruce, Chris Iannetta, Gallardo

4. Michael Street -David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Troy Tulowitzki, Curtis Granderson,Alexei Ramirez, Kershaw

5. Bill Baer -Chase Utley, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Mike Moustakas, Y.Escobar

6. Johanna Wagner -Dustin Pedroia, Geo Soto, Joey Votto, Matt Holliday, Edinson Volquez, Andrus

7. Eric Seidman -Grady Sizemore, Brian McCann, Dan Haren, J.J. Hardy, Aramis Ramirez, Rios

8. Melissa Lockard -Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Joba Chamberlain, Cameron Maybin, Matt Cain, Posey

9. Joe Hamrahi -Tim Lincecum, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Joakim Soria, Ryan Howard, Kazmir

10. Brian Joseph – Joe Mauer, C.C. Sabathia, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Snider, McLouth

11. Eric San Inocencio – Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, Justin Upton, Nick Markakis, Carlos Beltran, Cano

12. Kevin Goldstein -Cole Hamels, Matt Wieters, Jon Lester, Stephen Drew, Tommy Hanson, Alvarez

Links to previous rounds:

Round 5: Halfway Home – Dream Draft Teams Taking Shape

Rounds 2 (pick 21) through Round 4: Albert Pujols Dreamin’… Dream Draft Update!

Rounds 1-2 (pick 20): Dream Draft Update: Controversy and ‘roids!

Intro: Baseball Daily Digest Dream Draft!