Posted by Matt Sisson on Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 1:18 pm

With unemployment on the rise throughout the United States and spring training games starting up soon, one has to ask how this will effect the upcoming season. We know that the economic downturn we’re living in will effect baseball. We’ve seen a decrease in the number of multi-year deals and players taking huge pay cuts just play with a team. Baseball executives believe that the number of tickets they sell will decrease to a number that is potentially far less than they did last season.

If people don’t have jobs, then they aren’t going to be buying tickets to games. The fortunate bunch who can still afford to go might pass on that $5.00 hot dog and $8.00 beer between innings. Businesses and corporations will be less likely to buy season packages or luxury boxes when they’re faced with having to choose between seeing a ball game or keeping your employees employed.

This economic crisis has created a unique opportunity. If ticket sales and reveunue are down drastically a month or two into the season, teams will likely choose to unload salary in an effort to not dig themselves deeper into the red. Overall unemployment is up, way up, but some cities and states have been hit harder than others, California and Michigan in particular. Some mid- to lower market teams may not be able to make payroll due to fans staying at home to watch the game on TV.

I’ve compiled a lost of every team and the unemployment rates in the cities and states they play in. December 2008 unemployment figures for the state’s and cities were taken from the Bureau of Labor website.

The American League:

Of the 5 teams who rank above the December unemployment average it wouldn’t be surprising if a majority of them missed the playoffs. Oakland, Detroit stand out as teams who would want to cut their losses early. Oakland reputation for being “sellers” if they aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot make them the most likely to move a player like Matt Holliday early in the season. Cleveland traded away CC Sabathia last season when they realized that “this year isn’t their year” and Detroit’s high payroll and highest ranking on the unemployment scale almost ensure them to be sellers if they get off to a slow start like they did last year. Fans simply won’t have any interest in the team and won’t be able to afford to show up. It will be a toss up for Tampa Bay and Los Angeles depending on how each of their seasons start off. If Oakland is able to start off hot, LA’s fan base, who has come to expect winning, combined with a 9.3% unemployment rate may keep people out of the ball park. Tampa’s historical success in ‘08 is likely to help them more than any other team on this list and I really don’t see them trading away any of their young talent due to the fact that many are signed for less than market value or have yet to reach their arbitration eligible years.

The National League:

The National League list is a bit more interesting than the that of the American League. Could the Dodger’s ranking last on this list and the Giant’s ranking near the bottom be the reason for them not spending for Manny Ramirez? Could be. California teams will be hit the hardest by this recession. The state is having a hard time right now moneywise and the cities these teams play in are all above or well above the average unemployment rate. The Padres and Nationals have come into 2009 with little expectation of being a contender while other teams like the Reds, Giants, and Dodgers are on the verge of being play off teams. This chart almost guarantees that San Diego will start the Peavy trade-machine up some time early to mid-season. There will be some monumental deal’s to be had this year…like nothing we’ve seen in quite some time. Desperate times call for desperate measures and the team’s who don’t have stacks and stacks of cash on hand to absorb the losses could be set back a season or two after 2009.