Sunday, February 12th, 2012

Halfway Home – Dream Draft Teams Taking Shape

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Posted by Rob McQuown on Wednesday, February 18, 2009 at 1:09 am

If the 5th round is any indication, the Royals have a bright future ahead in the next half-dozen years! Three Royals and an ex-Royals superstar were all taken this round… not that Carlos Beltran is going to be helping the current Royals franchise any, but the long-woeful organization needs all the props it can get!

Previous rounds are recapped at the end, as well as in earlier blog entries.

ROUND 5:

1. Rob McQuown: Alex Gordon (3b, KC, age 25)

Undaunted by either his mediocre MLB stats through age 24, nor the precipitous decline in his fielding ability (+/- went from +6 to -9 between 07 and 08), nor the DL stint in 08, I’m focusing instead on other factors…. He’s still young. He has a new hitting coach (Central Illinois guy Kevin Seitzer who always seemed to have a good approach at the plate). He hasn’t exactly stunk in his 1000+ MLB at-bats, hitting .253/.332/.421; and though he strikes out a lot, 25% isn’t alarmingly high. At Gordon’s age, Chase Utley had barely had a cup of coffee. Perhaps most importantly, he was – in fact – tearing it up in the 2nd half last year when he wasn’t injured. He hit .277/.392/.496, without a ridiculously high BABIP (.320). Assuming his fielding rebounds, he should provide a nice lefty complement to Albert in the middle of the order.

2. John Burnson: Zack Greinke (sp, KC, age 25)

This is a guy who was brought up to the majors at age 20 (five years ago!) and put up a 3.97 ERA in 24 starts. As we know, mental problems derailed him for a time, but based on his numbers last year, those seem to be conquered. Greinke’s arm also looks fit — not a trivial consideration when names like Liriano and Gallardo are still on the board — and with his pedigree, age, and big-league survival skills, he looks poised to dominant for the foreseeable future.

3. Cory Schwartz: Chris Iannetta (c, COL, age 26)

I’ll complete my young up-the-middle core with Chris Iannetta, who combines good power and solid plate discipline with the strong defensive skills that became his calling card as he rose through the minors. Iannetta posted a .407 on-base percentage during his minor league career and finally converted that into big league performance last season, as he drew 56 walks for a .390 on-base percentage. He’s no singles-hitting defensive backstop, either, showing 20-homer power throughout the minors and bopping 18 dingers in semi-regular play last year. His overall combination of skills should able him to provide above-average value behind the plate for the next six seasons.

4. Michael Street: Alexei Ramirez (2b, CHA, age 26)

I predicted on Johanna’s site, lovemyteam.com, that the young ChiSox players would start getting snatched up soon, and I’m going to fulfill that prophecy with my next pick, also intended to shore up my middle defense. Alexei Ramirez offers quite a range of skills. He’s got speed and power, with the ability to play 2B or SS, and perhaps even lead off if he can improve his batting eye. For now, he’ll be a nice #5 or #6 hitter, where he’ll have less pressure to develop that power—and maybe act as a secondary leadoff hitter after Teixiera clears the bases.

5. Bill Baer: Mike Moustakas (3b, KC, age 20)

I’ll take a bit of a gamble and take a guy who has just under 550 at-bats in the Minors — Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas. He’s a top-ten prospect in all of baseball according to most. The Royals used him half-and-half at shortstop and third base, but third base is probably going to end up being his permanent position. He could potentially move to a corner outfield spot as well, if Alex Gordon continues to block him at third base.

Moustakas was taken one spot ahead of another well-liked third base prospect named Josh Vitters, who went to the Cubs third overall in the 2007 draft (David Price went first). Moustakas is a flat-out great hitter. 50 of his 135 hits with Kansas City’s Single-A Burlington went for extra bases and he drew 39 unintentional walks as well.

It’s not a matter of if Moustakas is going to make the Majors, it’s a matter of when. And that’s saying something considering both of his positions are currently blocked by Mike Aviles at shortstop and Alex Gordon at third base, two pretty good players themselves. Mike’s success in the Minors will end up forcing the Royals’ hand — that’s just how good he is. Moose could eventually find himself at a corner outfield position, or, according to Keith Law, behind home plate.

6. Johanna Wagner: Edinson Volquez (sp, CIN, age 25)

Well, I had a struggle with my last pick whether to go for an older established hitter or with a hot young pitcher. I wasn’t sure the one I didn’t take would still be around this round, but I was clearly wrong. Baseball America rates two of Edison Volquez’s pitches in the top three in the league, and he will only be 25 in 2009. In 2008, he was tied for second in strikeouts with Johan Santana and Dan Haren behind Tim Lincecum, and second to Lincecum in strikeouts/9 innings pitched. The league may make adjustments to him, but he is young enough that as he continues to learn to pitch, they will have a hard time keeping up. Can’t believe I managed to get two quality Reds.

7. Eric Seidman: Aramis Ramires (3b, CHN, age 31)

Having drafted a SP, C, SS and CF, I would now like to fill a hole at 3B, by drafting Aramis Ramirez of the Cubs. He is 30 yrs old but has been around league average with the glove, if not a couple runs below (save for his +11 run 2007 campaign in the field) but is absolutely dynamite with the bat. Since joining the Cubs in 2004, his lowest wOBA was .381, and he has averaged +4.7 wins/yr. On top of that, the average is in line with his consistency given that he is generally right around the +4.7 mark, as opposed to putting up a +6 win season followed by a +3 win season. Essentially, he’s the best available 3B and I needed to fill that hole.

8. Melissa Lockard: Matt Cain (sp, SF, age 24)

Along with Joba, Cain gives me two young, hard-throwing righties who will give you a ton of innings, strikeouts and low ERAs. With all of the innings he has thrown the last three seasons, you forget he is even younger than teammate Tim Lincecum. Cain I’d just starting to come into his own as a pitcher.

9. Joe Hamrahi: Ryan Howard (1b, PHI, age 29)

We’re going to continue the trend of building a middle of the lineup that just flat out mashes…by taking a “flier” on Ryan Howard. J

All he’s done is average 50 homers, 140 RBI, and 100 runs over the past 3 years while getting on base around 37% of the time. Oh yeah, and he actually took care of himself this off-season and is coming into camp in great shape. Howard may be considered old (29) in this draft, but even if he only performs at his current level for 3-4 more years, he’s still worth the selection here. Besides, if he doesn’t quite turn out to be what we hoped, we can always trade him to Bill or Brian!

10. Brian Joseph: Travis Snider (lf, TOR, age 21)

After I selected Ryan Zimmerman in the 4th round, I knew my 5th round pick would be Ryan Howard if he made it there… and he almost did. For the third consecutive time in three opportunities Mr. Hamrahi has snatched the top player on my draft wish list and I didn’t have a backup plan this time b/c after Joe’s earlier ribbing during a conversation about me probably taking Howard in the 1st round, I figured I was safe to bank on him there once Melissa passed. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen… On to Plan B:

This was a really tough decision but I decided to start building my outfield and I went with a prospect. I figure if there is a position I feel comfortable with taking a reach on, it is in the outfield. Plus, this guy could eventually play 1B so if I see another outfielder on the board that I like instead of one of the 1B on my list, I could use him there. So, with my 5th selection I’ll take Toronto’s Travis Snider. I’ve always been one to not fall in love with prospects and “The Franchise” just turned 21 so he probably won’t even reach his prime in 6 years but we’ll take our chances and make sure to pick up a servicable 4th outfielder or 1B as we nurse young Travis along.

11. Eric San Inocencio: Carlos Beltran (cf, NYN, age 30)

Even though my outfield appears to be set (Markakis, Upton) I’ll take another five-tool talent in Carlos Beltran. Though he’ll be 32 entering this year, Beltran is still capable of putting up good-to-great numbers as a premium center fielder. Over the past three years in a Mets uniform, Beltran has averaged 34 homers, 114 RBIs and 22 stolen bases per season with a home park that was (hopefully CitiField is different) terrible for hitters. All this while posting solid defensive numbers up the middle. As long as he stays away from Adam Wainwright’s curveball, we’ll get great production from Beltran.

12. Kevin Goldstein: Tommy Hanson (sp, ATL, age 22)

Waiting for these picks was a bit agonizing, and the two guys I wanted, Cain and Snider, we’re taking just before, so I’ve decided to put my money where my mouth is as a guy who gets paid good money to evaluate prospects.

first pick: Tommy Hanson. I think he’s ready right now, but the Braves don’t agree. I still expect him to get 100-125 innings this year, be a solid No. 3 starter in 2010, and slowly work his way to a consistent No. 2 from there, maybe a bit more. AFL scouts were reminded of John Smoltz.

Summary Through 5 Rounds:

1. Rob McQuown – Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay,Alex Gordon

2. John Burnson – Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, David Price, Mike Napoli, Zack Greinke

3. Cory Schwartz -Jose Reyes, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Jay Bruce, Chris Iannetta

4. Michael Street -David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Troy Tulowitzki, Curtis Granderson,Alexei Ramirez

5. Bill Baer -Chase Utley, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp, Mike Moustakas

6. Johanna Wagner -Dustin Pedroia, Geo Soto, Joey Votto, Matt Holliday, Edinson Volquez

7. Eric Seidman -Grady Sizemore, Brian McCann, Dan Haren, J.J. Hardy, Aramis Ramirez

8. Melissa Lockard -Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Joba Chamberlain, Cameron Maybin, Matt Cain

9. Joe Hamrahi -Tim Lincecum, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Joakim Soria, Ryan Howard

10. Brian Joseph – Joe Mauer, C.C. Sabathia, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Snider

11. Eric San Inocencio – Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, Justin Upton, Nick Markakis, Carlos Beltran

12. Kevin Goldstein -Cole Hamels, Matt Wieters, Jon Lester, Stephen Drew, Tommy Hanson

Round 6 is almost done too, so check back tonight for an update!

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