Posted by Rob McQuown on Sunday, February 15, 2009 at 1:22 pm

Four Rounds in the books! Six rounds to go – mid-round picks show some deep thought by the experts and writers!

What is a”Dream Draft”, anyway?

Well, as a Cubs fan, not having to see Albert Pujols assault my favorite team seems like a dream, so I took him first! On a deeper level, one of the participants asked me, “I know positional requirements are somewhat loose, but 10 players really only allows for one pitcher, doesn’t it? Not that we must field a team or anything, but it becomes hard to compare if I draft 9 position players+a pitcher, while someone else drafts 2 starters, a closer, and 6 position players.”

It’s a “Dream Draft”. Everyone has a different dream. I guess the way I think of it is as if the 12 of us would suddenly be dropped into a 30-team league startup draft (majors and minors, no salaries to worry about – yes, it’s a DREAM!) – except we’d already have our first 10 players – after this is over. So, people are going to take what’s important to them to start a team for the present and for the mid-term future (6 years). Obviously, using that model, we’d have the 10 best teams of the hypothetical 30, and hopefully would dominate the next six years. [Also included is "waking up" from the dream after 6 years, since we are only considering that specific window, and not the shape of the franchise after the 2014 season.] But that’s why it’s a “dream draft”. Taking 4 outfielders, or 3 third-basemen, or whatever, is fine, too… if a team has those assets in real life, they can figure out *something* to do with them, even if it means giving Dexter Fowler or Aaron Cunningham some – probably unnecessary time in AAA. And if you think a player is compelling to take with a pick, take him! :> We’ve already seen one third-baseman moved to first, and a RF moved to CF in our fictional world. Keep dreaming!

Back to the players….

After posting the first 20 picks in the 12-team Dream Draft Tuesday, the pace really sped up late last week, with a flurry of picks that made the month-end deadline for completion of the 10-round draft seem like a non-event. Things slowed down as the weekend approached, but we still got to the end of the 4th round/beginning of the 5th late last night.

A quick recap:

ROUND 1
1. Rob McQuown – Albert Pujols
2. John Burnson – Hanley Ramirez
3. Cory Schwartz – Jose Reyes
4. Michael Street – David Wright
5. Bill Baer – Chase Utley
6. Johanna Wagner – Dustin Pedroia
7. Eric Seidman – Grady Sizemore
8. Melissa Lockard – Evan Longoria
9. Joe Hamrahi – Tim Lincecum
10. Brian Joseph – Joe Mauer
11. Eric San Inocencio – Miguel Cabrera
12. Kevin Goldstein – Cole Hamels

ROUND 2
1. Kevin Goldstein – Matt Wieters
2. Eric San Inocencio – Johan Santana
3. Brian Joseph – C.C. Sabathia
4. Joe Hamrahi – Josh Hamilton
5. Melissa Lockard – Alex Rodriguez
6. Eric Seidman – Brian McCann
7. Johanna Wagner – Geovanny Soto
8. Bill Baer – Russell Martin
…

9. Michael Street: Mark Teixeira (1b, NYY, age 29)

I’m not biting on either the early pitcher or catcher run. I agree that those are important positions, but pitchers are extremely hard to project and catchers can break down awfully easily over a six-year run. (And all the exceptions to the above rule are largely gone anyway!) My first two picks need to be can’t-miss guys and, while there are some other gambles to be had at this point, I need to know that my top two will be solid producers.

So my next pick will be Mark Teixiera. Hitting behind David Wright will make for a monster middle of the lineup, and–just like Wright–he’s got a good health history and has skills that are extremely projectable. His amazing glove is going to make my infield that much better and, though he’s a touch old at 29, he’s got the kind of build that should help him maintain his elite OPS numbers for most, if not all, of the next six years.

10. Cory Schwartz: B.J. Upton (cf, TB, age 24)

B.J. Upton [...] combines power, speed, plate discipline and promising defensive skills. His control of the the strike zone increased considerably last season, and while the dip in power is disconcerting, I expect that it will return as this season progresses, following offseason shoulder surgery. He hit 24 homers in 2007 when healthy, so I expect that in his prime he’ll hit 35-40 per season, with the speed to be an annual 30-30 threat. His defense in center field last season was above average if not excellent, and with his speed and strong arm, he should become exceptional at the position with more experience. He’s a cornerstone player and a steal this late in the draft.

11. John Burnson: Prince Fielder (1b, MIL, age 25)

A line of .278/.370/.533 in 500+ games through age 24. And if this draft had taken place after his 2007 season, he might have gone in the first round. One thing: The Brewers might want to rest the guy once in a while (Fielder has missed only 12 games in the last three seasons).

12. Rob McQuown: Felix Hernandez (sp, SEA, age 23)

With two picks here, I had been considering the ultra-cool picks of The Brothers Upton, but was foiled by Cory. I don’t like the way that Seattle took the kid gloves off with Felix Hernandez in 2008, but I’m going to risk that no permanent damage has been done. He’s been 4th, 4th, 18th in xFIP out of ALL MLB the past 3 seasons, and was just 22 in 2008!!

ROUND 3

1. Rob McQuown: Brandon Webb (sp, ARI, age 30)

While Justin Upton still reminds me of Dave Winfield, I’m going to pass on him. I think he has the skill to go high batting average or high power or a mix of both as he chooses. And it seems obvious he won’t make it back to me. But I’m a big believer in having the killer 1-2 pitchers for a playoff series, ala Schilling and RJ in Arizona. So, I’m going with the ultra-durable Brandon Webb. Speaking of xFIP, he’s been 1,2,4 the past three years (all 30 teams). With Felix and him inducing all those grounders, if this was a real team, I’d be angling for vacuum cleaners in later rounds for infield defense, especially since most of the upper-tier offensive infielders are gone.

2. John Burnson: David Price (sp, TBA, age 23)

So that I don’t fret for the next 10 turns about Goldstein getting the top TWO prospects, I’m going to take 23-year-old LHP David Price. The strikeouts are great (109 K in 110 IP in the minors), but what impresses me is just 4 BB in 14 big-league innings. From his first pitch, Price was undaunted.

AND I will give Price a $10,000 bonus for each ground-ball that is NOT hit to Prince Fielder.

3. Cory Schwartz: Ian Kinsler (2b, TEX, age 27)

I’ll fill out my up-the-middle defense with Ian Kinsler (2B, Texas, 26 y.o.). OK, so picking Kinsler is more about his offense than his defense, which is best described as “mediocre.” But his bat will play at any position, and is only getting better. Like my first two picks, he has a solid combination of power and speed, and makes consistent enough contact that while he’ll never draw many walks, he shouldn’t strike out too much either. He’ll turn 27 this summer so he might only have a few more seasons at his current level of production, but second base is such a top-heavy, shallow position that I think it’s important to get an elite performer in his prime.

4. Michael Street: Troy Tulowitzki (ss, COL, age 24)

I agree that 2B is thin, but top-rank SS are even thinner. So I’m going with a mild gamble and snatching up Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL, 24). The gamble is that his quad injury from last season will continue, but the potential payoff is too good to let him pass. He’ll be rock-solid up the middle, a great #2 hitter in front of Wright and Tex, and will celebrate the end of our six-year timeframe by turning 30.

5. Bill Baer: Chad Billingsley (sp, LA, age 24)

He’s taken a lot of heat, particularly from the media and from Manny Ramirez. Why? He didn’t retaliate in the NLCS when Brett Myers threw behind Ramirez’s back in the first inning of Game 2. Good for him for not getting involved in such childish antics. Maturity is a plus.

Billingsley put up a great 2008 season after impressing us all in ‘06 and ‘07. He averaged a strikeout per inning last year, though he does walk a bit too many hitters for my liking. I do, however, like a pitcher who throws ground balls — Billingsley had an 8% increase from ‘07 to ‘08.

The Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projections all see him with an ERA between 3.60 and 3.70. If I was a betting man, I’m taking the under on that. Billingsley should be one of the premier right-handers in the game for a long time.

6. Johanna Wagner: Joey Votto (1b, CIN, age 25)

Was thinking that this would be the round where I might delve into centerfielder, but think its just too early for any of the potential players that are still on the board. So back to the original theory of taking care of my infield, and I’m picking Joey Votto. He had a monster August (.382 BA and .440 OBP) and slugged .723 in September, showing that a full season wasn’t going to wear him down. He has room to grow, and even though there are probably 10 first baseman with better offensive numbers in 2008, and he is just slightly better than league average on defense, I think this is a guy the term upside was made for. Bill James is predicting he hits 30 HRs in 2009, and as long as his strikeouts don’t go way up in the process, and he maintains his 25% line drive rate, he should be good for many years to come. Besides, I had to find a way to pick a Red.

7. Eric Seidman: Dan Haren (sp, ARI, age 28)

I’ll jump into the pitcher’s market and scoop up Dan Haren. He’s 28 years old and, over the last four seasons has pitched a minimum of 217 innings with the following wins above replacement values: +4.0, +4.0, +5.0, +6.4. He projects to around 212 innings with a 3.48 FIP, which would fall closer to his +5 win season than last year’s production level. Of the top ten pitchers last season not named Sabathia or Lincecum, he seems to be the most likely to consistently produce at a high level for the next 5-6 years.

8. Melissa Lockard: Joba Chamberlain (sp, NYY, age 23)

I had David Price all lined up to take, but, alas, he didn’t make it to my slot. I’m going to stick with pitching, however, and select Joba Chamberlain. The big righty has been used unconventionally thus far by the Yankees, but the restraints are coming off this season and he’ll be a starter full-time. He’s had some injury issues, but he is a big guy and should be able to shoulder the load of starting without a problem and he excelled in that role in the minor leagues. The combination of his great stuff and the fact that he will be pitching for a Yankees team that will always be primed to win gives Chamberlain a chance to be near 20 wins every season. That minor league K-rate of 13.8 per nine innings is very attractive, as well. And if he struggles as a starter for any reason, he will probably become the Yankees’ closer, which is still a valuable commodity.

9. Joe Hamrahi: Ryan Braun (3b, MIL, age 25)

With our next selection, we’re going to go with the Milwaukee masher, Ryan Braun. All the 25 year-old Braun has done is knock around almost every pitcher he’s faced in his brief 2 year career. He possesses a rare blend of power and speed and puts an enormous amount of pressure on the opposition. We believe Ryan will be a building block for our club. The sky is the limit for this kid.

10. Brian Joseph: Brandon Phillips (2b, CIN, age 28)

I was ready to flip a coin between Braun and the guy I am selecting now but Joe made that decision easier.

The thinning at second base and the fact that Braun was gone sent me in the direction of Phillips who has a little pop, can run and has an amazing glove in the field. Not only did he win the Gold Glove last year, he was also recognized as the Fielding Bible’s second baseman. The Fielding Bible Award is impressive because he beat out Chase Utley who led the league in defensive +/-, a Fielding Bible creation. Now, if an organization makes up a stat to give insight into defense then picks another guy as the defensive player of the year at that position, that has to say something, doesn’t it?

11. Eric San Inocencio: Justin Upton (cf, ARI, age 21)

I’ll take Justin Upton. I know a few people flirted with him, but I can’t pass on the type of ability that had him pegged for the top selection in the draft since he was 14 years old. I’m moving him to center field too. If not for Chris Young, he’d be there for the Diamondbacks.

12. Kevin Goldstein: Jon Lester (sp, BOS, age 26)

I’ll start my pair with Jon Lester. Fifth highest VORP among pitchers last year, and he’s only 25. I am SHOCKED he’s still on the board.

ROUND 4

1. Kevin Goldstein: Stephen Drew (ss, ARI, age 25)

I’ll lead of the fourth round with my first semi-flyer in shortstop Stephen Drew. All the talent in the world, started to show up in the second half of last year, young, and could be among the best middle infielders in the game this year. He’s gonna make me look smart.

2. Eric San Inocencio:Nick Markakis (rf, BAL, age 25)

While often forgotten when it comes to the top young players in the game, he’ll only continue to grow as more talent surrounds him in Baltimore. Already a great combination of patience and power, he broke the .400 mark in OBP as a 24 year old. Pair that with his fantastic arm (he was also a pitcher in JUCO) and you have the prototypical right fielder for years to come.

3. Brian Joseph: Ryan Zimmerman (3b, WAS, age 24)

My next selection is Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals. The 24-year-old 3B had a decent year despite injury and should only get better if most of the major projections are to be believed. In addition to his solid bat, Zimmerman is definitely no slouch in the field and should be moving into his prime over the next few years. As young as Zimmerman is, I’m not going to sweat last year’s injury and solidify one of my two corner infield needs.

4. Joe Hamrahi: Joakim Soria (rp, KC, age 25)

Every championship team needs a strong closer…the Phillies had Lidge, the Red Sox had Papelbon, and the Yankees, Rivera. The Hamrahis will have Joakim Soria. Soria has blown just 3 saves in his first 2 seasons, and has an almost unbelievable 4/1 K/BB ratio over that span. He’s a very consistent pitcher, starting and ending the season strong. In the first and last month of 2008, all Soria did was yield zero runs. Over that scoreless span of 20 innings, he allowed just 5 hits and 5 walks while striking out 20. It has taken a while for people to notice Joakim Soria, being that he plays for the Royals and all. But the 24-year old closer will make a lot of noise over the next several years as Kansas City begins to put a quality product on the field. Everyone will know Joakim Soria before long!

5. Melissa Lockard: Cameron Maybin (cf, FLA, age 22)

I have been going back and forth between picking Cameron Maybin or Jay Bruce. They are one day apart in age and both figure to be among the top outfielders in baseball over the next six years. After much debate, I have decided to select Maybin. Although I think Bruce will end up being the better hitter, I think Maybin will be the better all-around player when all is said and done. The Tigers rushed him to the big leagues in 2007, but the Marlins were wise last year to keep him in Double-A for the bulk of the season. The extra development time will maximize his chances of reaching his ceiling. He will be my centerfielder, and I believe he will develop into one of those rare 25-25 guys.

6. Eric Seidman: J.J. Hardy (ss, MIL, age 26)

I need a good middle infielder right now, so I’ll go with the 26-yr old JJ Hardy. He has already proven himself very capable with the glove but began to show us he could hit last year as well. Two consecutive seasons of >= 4.5 WAR looks very attractive at this juncture.

7. Johanna Wagner: Matt Holliday (lf, OAK, age 29)

Here is where I move away from my original strategy a bit. I need a clean-up hitter, someone with power and someone that is tested, but can be around for the next six years, so I am going with Matt Holliday (age 28, LF,A’s). I know the move to the American League and out of the high air of Denver will hurt him a bit, but he comes from a pure baseball pedigree, and I think he has the ability to make the adjustment. Besides, he has been to the World Series, an experience my other young players are going to need to tap into.

8. Bill Baer: Matt Kemp (cf, LA, age 24)

I’m going to stay up the middle and take Matt Kemp to play center field for me. He’s only 24 and has a ton of upside. Most of the projections see him putting up a wOBA of .350 or better in 2009. Add to that his speed (35 SB in 46 attempts last year) and slightly above-average defense that should only get better, and you have quite a valuable player for years to come.

I swear it’s just a mere coincidence that three of the first four players I’ve taken have been Dodgers.

9. Michael Street: Curtis Granderson (cf, DET, age 28)

I need to shore up the middle of my defense and get a good leadoff hitter, and nobody on the board fits the bill better than Granderson. He’s got speed, power, a good contact rate, and a steadily increasing batting eye—his glove may not make the highlight reels, but he’s improving there, too. He’ll be 34 at the tail end of our six-year window, and should continue to provide value through that point and beyond. And I always love a lefty leadoff hitter.

10. Cory Schwartz: Jay Bruce (rf, CIN, age 22)

I already have a center fielder in B.J. Upton, so I’ll flank him for the next six years with Jay Bruce (RF, Cincinnati, 23 years old). Bruce burst onto the scene with a 15-for-26, three-homer tear during his first week in the Majors, and while he struggled at times after that, the depth and breadth of his talent his considerable. He’s already got 30-to-35 homer power and projects at his peak to be a high-average slugger with solid plate discipline and strong defense in right field; his upside has been described as Manny Ramirez with better defense. Slugging outfielders aren’t exactly rare, but few can match Bruce’s achievements at such a young age, or his future projections.

11. John Burnson: Mike Napoli (c, LAA, age 27)

I’ll take Mike Napoli (CA, LAA). It’s true that the 27-year-old has played only 153 games the last two years, But even with his health woes, Napoli should contend for the top OPS in the majors at catcher. And between the arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder last October, and the Angels’ desire (need) to keep him productive, 2009 may be the year that he breaks out.

12. Rob McQuown: Roy “Doc” Halladay (sp, TOR, age 32)

While I do think the top 2 SP are the most important, since having a pitching advantage in the playoffs is crucial, a good number 3 who is better than many #1’s can give a team an enormous pitching advantage in 2 games out of 7. When said pitcher can almost be written in for 8 innings, that’s 16 of 63 possible innings in a 7-game series, or over 25%! With visions of Jakkkkke Peavy and Josh Beckkkkkett dancing in my head, I foresaw that I’d probably end up taking yet another SP, as I place an enormous emphasis on starting pitching quality, and don’t think anyone can satisfactorily project young pitchers. I figure I can always project a hitter, even if he hasn’t shown anything. Let’s hope so, since I don’t even have a 2nd position player through 4 rounds!

Anyway, Halladay’s an “old man” at 32, but aging curves are merely a suggestion for pitchers… it’s all about the injuries with them, and he’s remained relatively injury-free for a long time now. He might lose a touch of his effectiveness at the end of his 6 years (age 37), but -barring a major injury – not enough that you’d notice. He’s been between 3.00 and 4.05 xFIP the past 5 years, leading the AL in 2008. With a devastating 8.0:1.5 K:BB ratio and 54% GB% in 2008, he may owe some of his success to the fine Toronto defense, but he’s creating a lot of his own success, too!

Summary Through 4 Rounds:

1. Rob McQuown – Albert Pujols, Felix Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay

2. John Burnson – Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, David Price, Mike Napoli

3. Cory Schwartz -Jose Reyes, B.J. Upton, Ian Kinsler, Jay Bruce

4. Michael Street -David Wright, Mark Teixeira, Troy Tulowitzki, Curtis Granderson

5. Bill Baer -Chase Utley, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp

6. Johanna Wagner -Dustin Pedroia, Geo Soto, Joey Votto, Matt Holliday

7. Eric Seidman -Grady Sizemore, Brian McCann, Dan Haren, J.J. Hardy

8. Melissa Lockard -Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Joba Chamberlain, Cameron Maybin

9. Joe Hamrahi -Tim Lincecum, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Joakim Soria

10. Brian Joseph – Joe Mauer, C.C. Sabathia, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Zimmerman

11. Eric San Inocencio – Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, Justin Upton, Nick Markakis

12. Kevin Goldstein -Cole Hamels, Matt Wieters, Jon Lester, Stephen Drew

In addition to the comments on Tuesday’s update , Lovemyteam.com readers have chimed in on their forums with some thoughts.

Stay Tuned!