Three Things Charlie Manuel Must Do In 2009
Posted by Bill Baer on Saturday, February 7, 2009 at 9:17 am
1. Manuel must split up the lefties in his line-up.
Against right-handed starting pitchers, five of the eight non-pitcher spots in Manuel’s batting order will consist of left-handed hitters: switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, and pure lefties Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez.
The Phillies as a team last season received 139 more at-bats against left-handed pitching above the league average (1,763).
While Utley and Ibanez hit lefties well, Ryan Howard’s production against them has been declining since 2006, while his place appearances against them have been increasing.
2006: 225 PA vs. LHP, .923 OPS
2007: 246 PA vs. LHP, .826 OPS
2008: 265 PA vs. LHP, .746 OPS
Using this lineup analysis tool from David Pinto at Baseball Musings, and using the Marcels projections found at FanGraphs, the most ideal line-up is:
- Jayson Werth
- Chase Utley
- Shane Victorino
- Ryan Howard
- Raul Ibanez
- Pedro Feliz
- Jimmy Rollins
- Pitcher
- Carlos Ruiz
That’s R, L, S, L, L, R, S, Pitcher, R, and this batting order is estimated to score an average of 4.968 runs per game. Opposing managers might still want to bring in a left-hander in for Utley and leave him in for Victorino even though he hits them better than right-handers, and continue to leave him in for the ensuing two lefties.
The highest-scoring line-up from Pinto’s analysis tool that doesn’t have the L, S, L, L in the 2-5 slots is the fourth one, worth 4.961 runs per game: Utley, Werth, Victorino, Howard, Ibanez, Feliz, Rollins, Pitcher, Ruiz. The L-L of Howard and Ibanez might still create a problem, so what I’d do is bump Rollins into Ibanez’s spot and push everyone else down a notch. That configuration is worth 4.957 runs per game.
Manuel’s most frequent line-up last season went S, S, L, L, R, L, R, R, pitcher, so he’s shown a willingness to clump same-handed hitters back-to-back. It may go relatively unnoticed with two hitters, but with three in a row could present problems, especially for Ryan Howard, who the Phillies should and probably will be thinking of trading assuming that the two sides don’t agree to a long-term contract.
2. Manuel must not overuse Chad Durbin, or any other pitcher for that matter.
Durbin led all National League relievers in innings pitched, with 87 and two-thirds of them. However, he ran out of gas in August and put up unflattering numbers in the final two months of the season. Check out his monthly splits from last season.
It will be interesting to see how the 50-game suspension of J.C. Romero will affect Manuel’s bullpen usage, assuming the Phillies go into the season with Scott Eyre as their only left-handed reliever. Will Manuel ask his relievers to go more than one inning frequently? How often will he use his guys back-to-back-to-back, or even back-to-back?
Cole Hamels is another candidate for receiving a large workload in ‘09. Manuel used him for 227 and one-third innings last season, as well as 35 additional innings in the post-season. The 227.3 innings is the most thrown by a Phillies starter since Curt Schilling threw 268 and two-thirds in 1998.
That’s a lot of innings for a young pitcher with a colorful injury history, including two stints on the DL in his first two seasons in the Majors.
Tom Verducci, currently famous for his co-authorship with Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre, has been keeping tabs on a theory he calls “The Year After Effect.” Click here for his pre-2007 article and here for his pre-2008 article. He describes it as follows (from the pre-’07 article):
I’ve been tracking the YAE for about a decade now. It’s based on a general rule of thumb among executives and pitching coaches: young pitchers should not have their innings workload increased by more than 25 or 30 innings per year. It’s the same principle as training for a marathon; you get to 26.1 miles incrementally, not by jumping directly from a 10K. The body cannot easily withstand being pushed so far behind its previous capacity for work, at least not without consequences. Typically, those consequences occur the next season, not the year in which the body is pushed.
Hamels went from 183 and one-third regular season innings and 6 and two-thirds post-season innings (190 total) in 2007 to 227 and one-third regular season innings and 35 post-season innings (262 and one-third) in 2008. That’s an increase of 72 total innings — more than double Verducci’s threshold! Even if you count the regular season only, that’s a 37-inning jump, which still qualifies.
As much as you hate to choose not to utilize your best starter, it might be smart for Manuel to make Hamels skip a start or at least push him back a few days, only against non-divisional opponents and ones the Phillies should have no problem dealing with (i.e. the Pirates or the Padres).
3. Manuel must be willing to ruthlessly utilize his catchers.
The Phillies’ current trio of Major League catchers includes Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, and Ronny Paulino, the latter being recently acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates for former catching prospect Jason Jaramillo. The World Champs also have Lou Marson, who will likely start the season in AAA.
The Marcel projections see the trio producing as follows:
- Carlos Ruiz: .329 OBP/.361 SLG
- Chris Coste: .328 OBP/.431 SLG
- Ronny Paulino: .326 OBP/.381 SLG
The league-average catcher last season was .328/.387, so Ruiz and Paulino project to be about average, and Chris Coste figures to be slightly above-average. However, Ruiz’s job is fairly secure since he did handle the pitching staff that won the Phillies a World Series championship. Coste has already been dangled in trade proposals. Paulino is essentially a warm body that, if placed on the MLB roster, frees up Chris Coste as a right-handed pinch hitter.
So, that leaves Marson out of the equation as expected, and he’ll start the season in AAA. If any of the three struggle offensively, Manuel should be quick and ruthless in demoting his catcher(s) and utilizing Marson. Baseball America judges Marson as having the best strike zone discipline and the best defense of the Phillies’ catching prospects (not surprising).
Speaking of catching defense, when it comes to throwing out a high percentage of runners, Ruiz’s 17.7% and Coste’s 15.4% in 2008 would both rank at the very bottom of the league if they each had enough defensive innings to qualify.
