Posted by Bill Baer on Friday, January 23, 2009 at 6:23 pm

Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that, in addition to Moises Alou and Nomar Garciaparra, the Phillies are pursuing Mark Grudzielanek, Rich Aurilia, and Kevin Millar to fill the role of right-handed bat off the bench. This player will also likely be asked to spell left fielder Raul Ibanez from time to time when a tough lefty pitcher is scheduled to oppose the Phils.

Let’s take a look at some statistics and projections and see who the best fit would be.

Career, vs. LHP

• Alou: .400 OBP/.559 SLG
• Garciaparra: .370/.531
• Grudzielanek: .348/.412
• Aurilia: .342/.494
• Millar: .364/.440

Unsurprisingly, Alou and Garciaparra appear to be the best options for this specific role. However, Alou brings with him durability concerns, as does Nomar, who is not even sure if he wants to play baseball anymore. Besides that duo, Millar appears to be the third-best option.

Besides Alou, only Millar has any experience playing the outfield, so that has to figure into the Phillies’ thought process as well.

What do the projections say about each player’s overall 2009 production?

Alou (Age 42)

• CHONE: .337 OBP/.442 SLG
• Marcel: .346/.471
• Bill James: Not available

Garciaparra (Age 35)

• CHONE: .329/.420
• Marcel: .329/.418
• Bill James: .344/.453

Grudzielanek (Age 38)

• CHONE: .310/.363
• Marcel: .328/.402
• Bill James: .336/.393

Aurilia (Age 37)

• CHONE: .313/.389
• Marcel: .319/.414
• Bill James: .323/.409

Millar (Age 37)

• CHONE: .344/.382
• Marcel: .337/.397
• Bill James: .348/.413

Once again, Alou and Garciaparra appear to be in a class of their own, at least among this bunch. There’s a significant drop-off after those two.

Given the Phillies’ hitter-friendly ballpark, it’s probably smarter to put more stock in a player’s on-base percentage rather than his slugging, so Millar would be the third-best option, followed by Grudzielanek and Aurilia.

How about trends?

• Between 2004-07, Alou put up an OPS+ from 131-138 but saw his at-bats decrease with each season before finally missing all but 15 games in ‘08.
• Garciaparra has been erratic with his production. In ‘06, he put up a 120 OPS+ in 122 games. In ‘07, he put up a 78 OPS+ in 121 games. He only played a third of the ‘08 season with a 105 OPS+.
• Grudzielanek has been consisent, posting an OPS+ between 90-100 the past five seasons, averaging 111 games in that span. However, his games played total has been steadily decreasing the past four seasons.
• Aurilia has been erratic. His games played from ‘06-’08 have gone 122, 99, 140. His OPS+ has gone 115, 73, 93.
• Despite an increase in games played since ‘06, Millar has seen his OPS+ has gone down each year: 111, 106, 87.

Barry Bonds is out there, too…

Just saying.

Anyone seen Sammy Sosa?

On a related note, I’ve concluded that the Phils should trade Ryan Howard after the ‘09 season.