GM Amaro is Phils’ Weakest Link

Posted by Bill Baer on Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 5:13 pm

So, you just won the World Series. Your team is one of baseball’s oldest (since 1883) and is located in one of the largest metropolitan areas in the entire country. Your fan base has a reputation for being rabid about its sports teams and demands nothing but the best. After all, they paid for a good portion of the bill for the new stadium and make it possible — by buying tickets and consuming merchandise and concessions — to have the financial flexibility to pay Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Brad Lidge’s salaries.

Your rival becomes glassy-eyed and nauseous once September rolls around and that hasn’t gone over well with that fan base, located in the largest metropolitan area in the country. A new stadium is on the way and they have consistently had money to spend thanks to a similarly rabid fan base that shows up to games in droves.

Who do you think should have the better, more productive off-season? The World F’in Champions, or the September Choke Artists?

It should be the WFC’s. And why not? They just won a World F’in Championship. But the WFC’s have had an embarrassingly low-key, settle-for-less kind of off-season under new GM Ruben Amaro.

Amaro declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell, a Type A free agent, because he believed he would accept the offer. Thus, the Phillies would have been forced to pay Burrell a 2009 salary likely in the $16-18 million range, more than they believed him to be worth. Instead, they went out and signed another Type A free agent, Raul Ibanez, for $31.5 million for three years including $6.5 million in 2009. At the cost of two first round draft picks* the Phillies saved about $10 million. But 25% (and potentially 50% given incentives) of that then went to free agent Chan Ho Park, whose 2008 season was the first in which he finished with an ERA+ over 93 since 2001. And $6.5 million went into re-signing Jamie Moyer who is much more likely to put up Adam Eaton-type numbers than Cole Hamels-type numbers.

* On the Phillies’ roster, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, and Jayson Werth are all former first-round picks. Lidge and Werth were drafted by the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles, respectively. The Phillies drafted the rest.

In signing Ibanez, Amaro essentially set the market for good-hitting, poor-defending outfielders like Burrell and Adam Dunn. However, if one is going to set the market by making the first splash, one usually wants to get the best player. Among the free agent corner outfielders, Ibanez is arguably out of the top-five. Considering that Adam Dunn is a Type A free agent who was not offered arbitration by the Arizona Diamondbacks, is consistently more productive offensively and comparably poor defensively, it makes no sense to sign Ibanez when you have Dunn available.

What’s often overlooked is that the Phillies are almost never in the mix to acquire a top-tier player, be it in a trade or via free agency.* Sure, the Charlie Manuel/Manny Ramirez connection made some headlines around the trading deadline last season, but there were never any serious talks about Man-Ram wearing Phillies red. How about trading away Ryan Howard for pitching, and promptly signing free agent Mark Teixeira? Not in the wildest dreams of the Phillies’ GM. Derek Lowe a Phillie? You saw what happened to Kevin Millwood, right?

*Brad Lidge doesn’t count since most were disparaging the trade when it happened, considering Lidge to be completely and utterly mentally-wracked as a result of the home run Albert Pujols hit off of him in the 2005 NLCS.

Coming off a WFC, one would figure the Phillies could utilize their clout as WFC’s and the idolization of the players by the fans as a bargaining chip to attract free agents. Granted, the Phillies’ purse strings are a bit tight because so many players are arbitration eligible: Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson, Shane Victorino, Greg Dobbs, Chad Durbin, and Joe Blanton.

The Phillies are also paying a lot of money in ‘09 to Geoff Jenkins and Adam Eaton, two players who are highly likely to be unproductive. Why not send Jenkins ($6.75 million) or Eaton ($8.75 million) to another desperate team for a handshake, provided they take on a generous portion of their salaries? Right there, that’s between $10 and $15.5 million cleared up. Add in the wasted $6.5 million on Ibanez and $2.5-5 million on Park, and you have between $20-27 million. With that space, they can sign anyone.

Instead, Jenkins’ and Eaton’s salaries will remain wholly on the books, their bodies filling up roster slots that could be taken by more productive players. Amaro is content paying $6.5 million for a downgrade in left field, $6.5 million for a 46-year-old starter in Jamie Moyer, and $2.5-5 million for a flaky, typically unproductive SP/RP hybrid in Park.

WFC’s and they’re scavenging the free agent market. WFC’s and they’re hoping some food falls off the table.

Mets GM Omar Minaya, despite his team’s embarrassingly pathetic play at the end of each of the last two seasons, is eating at the table. He’s at the back end of a three-course meal. With Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz stains on his bib, he may as well get some Derek Lowe on there, too.

Spending money and acquiring star players doesn’t guarantee success by any means. The Phillies have enjoyed success thanks to a great series of draft picks and low-risk, high-reward moves. Mike Arbuckle, responsible for those draft picks, is no longer with the organization as a direct result of Amaro’s promotion. Pat Gillick, responsible for those low-risk, high-reward moves, stepped down as GM after the WFC and will not be able to provide the Phillies with this year’s version of Greg Dobbs or Chad Durbin.

Ruben Amaro is essentially all by himself. The draft isn’t for another half-year and likely won’t matter too much anyway because his arbitration refusal to Burrell and signing of Ibanez essentially cost the Phillies two first-rounders. Amaro has this off-season and the few weeks leading up to the July 31 trading deadline to keep this team ready, willing, and able to defend that World F’in Championship.

The New York Mets, pathetic disappointments the last two seasons, should have had to settle for Ibanez and Park. That Amaro, with his ineffective moves, willingly jumped out and screamed to the baseball world, “Hey, we’ll settle for less. I don’t mind!” shouldn’t settle well with the Philadelphia fan base. And no one should be surprised if the Mets are favorites to win the NL East — or, in more familiar terms, “the team to beat” — going into the season.