Phils Should Pick Happ Over Kendrick

Posted by Bill Baer on Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 11:56 pm

I was piqued by something that was thrown in at the end of this article about the Phillies’ efforts to re-sign crafty lefty Jamie Moyer.

If Moyer re-signs, he’d join a Phillies rotation for 2009 that already includes Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and, possibly, Kyle Kendrick.

“Possibly” Kyle Kendrick. Possibly a 5.55 FIP. Possibly less than four strikeouts per nine innings.

Nothing personal against Kyle, of course — he seems like a good guy — but he just doesn’t have the stuff that projects to be successful in the Major Leagues. His comparables, listed at the bottom of his Baseball Reference page, don’t give you any reason to want to buy his stock. In his general “Similar Pitchers” list, there is no one you’d feel confident giving the ball to every five games. The “Similar Pitchers Through Age 23″ list yields about the same result, though if he can mimic Kyle Lohse as a #5 starter, the Phillies would be in a very comfortable position.

Even with baseball’s best defense behind him (the Phils were +74 according to the Fielding Bible) Kendrick’s ERA was at 5.49. Just imagine if the Phils’ D hadn’t been so extraordinarily efficient! KK would have been lucky to stay in the 5’s.

Pitchers of Kendrick’s ilk — low strikeout rate and dependence on the conversion of balls in play into outs (in other words, dependence on defense) — tend not to sustain success for long periods of time. Further, when these types of pitchers do enjoy success, a good portion of it can usually be attributed to luck. (And, yes, Jamie Moyer’s season last year was luck-enhanced.)

Kendrick put up an outstanding (for him) 3.87 ERA as a rookie in a hitter-friendly home park, an achievement in and of itself. He enjoyed a low .279 BABIP as compared to a .331 expected BABIP, and he stranded 78% of the runners that reached base (the average is around 71%). His FIP was 4.94, more than a full run greater than his ERA, and the Phillies’ defense was “only” +18. Kendrick was lucky in his rookie season, when he finished fifth in ROY voting.

Both the Bill James and Marcels projection systems see Kendrick posting an ERA below 5 in 2009, but very high in the 4’s: 4.82 and 4.71 in 110 and 149 innings, respectively.

For some reason, it seems as if left-hander J.A. Happ doesn’t figure into the Phils’ plans much in ‘09. There are two lefties in the bullpen already (Scott Eyre and J.C. Romero), so the only spot left for Happ at the MLB level is the #5 spot in the rotation. Otherwise, he’s back to the AAA Lehigh Valley starting rotation.

Barring any more deals, and assuming that the Phillies are able to fill the #4 slot with Moyer, the #5 slot should be Happ’s spot to lose going into spring training. What does the guy have to do to get a Major League roster slot?

Happ made his debut (his first and only appearance in ‘07) against the New York Mets on June 30. He gave up three runs on a single and two home runs in the first inning, then settled down and only allowed two runs — a Carlos Beltran two-run homer — over the next three innings.

Happ waited more than a year to get his next MLB appearance. On July 4, 2008, he made his second career start and second career start against the Mets. It went better than his first, as he allowed only two runs over four and two-thirds innings.

The Phils used him as a reliever sparsely through the second-half as well. From the bullpen, Happ pitched eight innings in four appearances, allowing seven runs (7.88 ERA). As a starter, he pitched 23 and two-thirds innings in four starts, allowing six runs (2.28 ERA).

Happ has shown better “stuff” than Kendrick in his more extensive work as a Major Leaguer in 2008: a 7.39 K/9 and a 4.14 FIP compared to his 3.69 ERA. Between A and AA in 2006, Happ’s K/9 was at 8.66 and 9.76, respectively. In ‘07 at AAA, it was at 8.90. His worst FIP in the Minors was 4.11 in 118 and one-third innings in ‘07.

Marcel projects a 4.28 ERA for him in ‘09 — a 0.43 difference between Happ and Kendrick. Pretty significant. What should be a slam dunk decision might end up turning into a blunder at the end of spring training that could cost them several wins throughout the year.

Now, it might not be as dumb as not offering arbitration to Pat Burrell, then going out and signing an older but very similar player in Raul Ibanez… but illogical nonetheless.