Posted by Matt Sisson on Friday, November 21, 2008 at 4:32 pm

In an article in the New York Daily News, John Harper writes about how the Mets are concerned about how K-Rod’s velocity has dropped from the 95-96 range in previous years to the 91-93 range.  With back to back years of heavy use, signing Rodriguez to the long term deal he is seeking is a risky move.

In another article,  Harper talks about the immediate response to these concerns issued by K-Rod’s agent.  The article goes on to say “K-Rod’s agent, Paul Kinzer, insists that such talk is misinformed.  He says that Rodriguez is more comfortable throwing his fastball at lower velocities because it gives him better command.  ‘I saw him hit 96 (mph) twice and 97 once late in the season…”  Kinzer said Saturday.  “The velocity is there when he needs to reach back for it.  He told me he’s just more comfortable around 92-93.  ‘He says he has a better feel for his change-up when he’s not overthrowing his fastball, and his change-up has become a big part of his arsenal.’”

While K-Rod was tring to pitch his way out of trouble against the Boston Red Sox in the first round of the playoffs, the teams with an empty spot at the closer position took notice.  Harper writes “Mets officials watched with some curiosity as K-Rod seemed reluctant to throw his fastball, to the point of walking the bases loaded with curveballs and change-ups in a game that was tied at the time.  “It made you wonder,” one of those Mets people recalled Saturday.  “He didn’t have the swagger of a guy who had just broken the (single-season) save record.  He’s got a great change-up, but he looked like he didn’t trust his fastball at all.’”

Using PITCHfx data from the 2008 season, I took a look at what Kinzer said about seeing K-Rod being able to reach back for the velocity when he needs it.  Turns out Kinzer was only partially right.  K-Rod did in fact reach 97 mph (96.6 to be exact), but he did it only once during the entire season and it was during an at bat against Jeff Kent on 6/29/08.  Not exactly the end of the season…Kent eventually ended up walking during that at bat.  K-Rod also hit 96mph three times (95.9, 95.8, & (95.8 again, to be exact) in 2008.  The first time was in the same Jeff Kent at bat in which he reached 97 and the other two times coming in a Nick Swisher at bat on 9/6/08 in which Swisher ended up singling.  Interesting numbers considering…

Of the 1,170 pitches K-Rod threw in 2008, only 91 (7.8%) were 93.5 mph or above.  Of those 91 pitches, 65 were during at bats that lead to an out with the others leading to either a walk (15) or a single (11).  Of the 91 pitches above 93.5 mph, 1 was 97 mph, 3 were 96 mph, 15 were 95 mph and the majority of the pitches (72) were 94 mph.  This translates to a majority of the pitches over 93mph were just 1 mph over his comfort zone. Hardly a valid argument for an agent to make on behalf of his client when you look at the date available.

With the decrease in velocity of his fastball, K-Rod stated he preferred using his change up.  The chart below shows the K-Rod’s pitch selection and average speed of those pitches dating back to 2005.  The chart clearly backs up what K-Rod stated about using his change-up more and easing up on how hard he throws his fastball.  The main question is, does the PITCHfx data tell more of the story than K-Rod and his agent?  Could K-Rod be using his change up more because he can’t really reach back and zip one in like he used to?  Is this the pitcher you’ll actually be getting with that multi-million dollar, multi-year contract?

I believe the data is more telling.  This is the real K-Rod and his pitching style will continue to transition away from the fireballer to what we saw in 2008.  The chart below shows how K-Rod’s rate stats have changed year to year as he transitions from a power pitcher who threw in the high 90’s to his present day form, mixing in the change-up more and more.

K-Rod saw a decrease in his batting average against, K’s/9 and his K/BB ratio while he saw an increase in this WHIP and LOB%.   The 63 saves he had in 2008 were more a product of opportunity and not K-Rod being an elite closer.  This does not mean K-Rod won’t be an effective closer…he pitched this way in 2008 and had success, but he did blow 10% of his save opportunities in 2007 and in 2008 which is about 4% below elite closer status.  The Mets and other teams bidding for K-Rod’s services must realize that they are not bidding on what he did in 2004-2007 but more of what they saw in 2008. Whatever team he ends up on in 2009 should expect the same.