BDD Writers World Series Pick
Posted by Brandon Heikoop on Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 5:21 pm
The BDD Writers return with our expert guesses for the World Series. The Rays were nearly unanimous for the Championship Series, where only one writer (yours truly) picked the Sox to take the ALCS crown. This, after picking the Rays to win the AL East in March and figuring the Sox to bow out in the Divisional Series.
The World Series is not having a different feel, where only one writer has decided to pick the Phillies to be the 2008 World Champions. Based on how the picks have panned out up to this point, Brian has made the second most correct picks (4 of 6), while Rob leads with 5 of 6 correct predictions (/guesses). If you are going to lay money down based on our hunches, I’d stick with Rob.
As a group we have accurately predicted 3 of 5 series (my email server let me down last week which did not allow us to have a Philadelphia v. Los Angeles tie-breaker vote, who’d ya have Joe?).
Leading off with our misfit, let’s see the rationale each writer has for their World Series pick:
Philadelphia Phillies in 6.
I know I said that I would never bet against the Rays as my rationale for picking them over the Red Sox in 7 in the ALCS. However, what I’ve learned about betting is that I always make one more bet than I should. So, I’m going against my theory and going all-in on the Phillies. The story here is their underrated big play defense that has a way of taking hits off the board. It’s hard to measure, although the Fielding Bible does a great job of it. If you add up the Phillies starting defense and compare it to the Rays starting defense, the Phillies held a +78 to +30 advantage during the season. Even over a short series of 6 or 7 games that’s a +2 advantage in favor of the Phillies defensively.
I have to go with the Rays. I know it’s cliché, but they seem to be a team of destiny. I love their energy, I love their starting pitching, and I LOVE David Price. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins might be the best core of young players in the league, but I don’t believe the Philadelphia bats will be able to overcome their own mediocre pitching staff (after Cole Hamels that is). Moyer is capable of a solid outing, but Tampa Bay’s right-handed bats are dangerous. Brett Myers is unpredictable, and I just can’t get excited about Joe Blanton’s 4-0 record with the Phils (31/49 BB-K ratio and 10 HRs in 70 IP). Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and Sonnanstine sounds a whole lot better to me! Rays win this in 6 games.
Tampa Bay Rays to win.
Home field advantage and a deeper rotation. You have to love the resiliency shown by this bunch in the face of a historic collapse. Joe Maddon is the manager of the century.
Rays in 7 in one of the closest matchups in recent memory. The Phillies are older but colder, while the Rays are a little tired but young and resilient. The Phils have a deeper pen, but the Rays have a deeper rotation; both lineups shake out about equally. This one will go the distance, with the Rays’ All-Star-granted home-field advantage making the difference.
Tampa in 5.
Everything is falling the Rays favor. From the match-ups to home field (although in 5, that won’t be a factor) this October has been all about Tampa Bay.
I have the Rays winning the World Series in six games.
Going to have to go with Tampa. Haven’t bet against them yet this post season and don’t see any reason to start now. Though I’m not sure how much more I can take of Cardiac Dan Wheeler. Not to mention being a Braves fan I cannot bring myself to root for the Phillies at anytime. The Phils are going to have their hands full and this puppy I think is going to go down it seven games.
World Series prediction: Tampa Bay wins. The bullpen will be fresh, and Kazmir’s the best choice against the Phils anyway, so the inability to set their rotation won’t hurt them. And tape of Price must look like a horror movie to Utley and Howard.
I’ve got the Rays winning this series in four games. The American League is simply that much more superior and the best team from the AL’s best division will simply be too much for the Phillies to handle. According to Baseball Prospectus’ EQA and EQR the Rays had a superior run differential of +137 compared to the Phillies +68, a very substantial margin.
While many are expecting Hamels to get the Phillies off to a good start, I keep thinking back to how hard both Upton and Longoria hit Jon Lester in the ALCS. Additionally, the Phillies bullpen is simply bound to give up a lead-something they haven’t done to this point in the season.
So there you have it, ‘expert’ guesses. Who ya got? And why?
Sorry about not adding reasoning behind my pick. To tack on to what others have said, I think another point in favor of the Rays is the running game. Both teams have about equivalent speed, with the Phillies about 10% more efficient. However, Dioner Navarro led the AL in CS%, while the Phillies catchers would bring up the rear in the NL if they had enough defensive innings to qualify.
I have the Rays in 6, with the Phillies winning the two games that Cole Hamels starts.