Posted by Bill Baer on Friday, August 1, 2008 at 1:38 pm

Everyone is focusing on the Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay, and Mark Teixeira trades as well they should, but what might get lost is that there were a few teams who sorely needed upgrades and failed to pull the trigger. Will it hurt their playoff chances? Let’s have a look.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays needed to pick up a good offensive player, and were rumored to have been very close to a trade for Jason Bay, but balked at the thought of giving up a couple of their best prospects (Reid Brignac and Jeff Niemann). There’s no doubt they sought after a couple other available outfielders like Xavier Nady and Raul Ibanez as well.

Did deadline dormancy hurt the Rays? They’re 10th out of 14 American League teams with an average 4.43 runs per game and even though they have the third-best runs allowed average (4.05), they’re out-performing their expected W-L by five games. Their outfielders and DH all have an OPS+ between 90 and 109, which is just below or just higher than the league average. And, of course, they have Jason Bartlett and his 59 OPS+ at shortstop. There weren’t any shortstops available, however.

First and third place in the AL East is separated by only four and a half games. Even though the Red Sox traded a future first ballot Hall of Famer in Manny Ramirez, they got Jason Bay from the Pirates, so there shouldn’t be too much of a decline in production, if any. The Yankees made huge upgrades by 4 PM on July 31, acquiring Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates, and Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers.

If the Rays fall out of AL East contention, they may not be able to settle for the Wild Card either, since that will be contended for by either the Red Sox or Yankees and the White Sox or Twins. Either way, the Rays have at last two teams to watch out for as they eye a playoff berth, and the lack of an offensive upgrade may end up being their death knell.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins weren’t rumored to be involved in too many (if any) trades, so the assumption is that their post-season aspirations rest and have rested on their current corps of players.

They only have a +30 run differential due in large part to their starting rotation. Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have been decent and Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins have been average, but Livan Hernandez has been awful. Adam-Eaton-awful. They would have improved their team — addition by subtraction — by getting him out of the rotation. The most simple upgrade would have been to call Francisco Liriano up, but there are quite a few theories as to why that move hasn’t been made yet. They also could have made a trade but starting pitching was a scarcity and what little was available was pricey.

Overall, the Twins’ lack of action won’t hurt them too much but if they continue to let Liriano toil in the Minor Leagues while Hernandez continues to be given the ball every fifth day, they may find themselves eating the dust of the Chicago White Sox.

Detroit Tigers

Even though the Tigers made a trade, I’m still labeling them as having been dormant. All they did was trade a decent catcher for a mediocre relief pitcher who may be their closer by default. What the Tigers needed was not a relief pitcher but a starting pitcher.

Aside from Armando Galarraga, the entire starting rotation has been atrocious. Justin Verlander is only now creeping his way up to a league-average ERA+. A trade for a good starting pitcher would have put them firmly back in contention for a playoff berth, but with just a +28 run differential, it’ll be hard for them to patch together enough wins to overtake the AL Central or Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies

Going into July, the Phillies knew what they wanted to acquire by 4 PM on July 31: a left-handed late-innings relief pitcher and a starting pitcher. GM Pat Gillick made a somewhat questionable trade with the Oakland Athletics for Joe Blanton. In his Phillies debut against the Mets, Blanton wasn’t as bad as the box score indicates, but wasn’t anything special. Blanton has yet to make his second real start for the Phillies, as his most recent went only two innings as a result of a lengthy rain delay.

The Phillies were on the prowl for even more starting pitching, having been rumored to inquire about Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. Starting pitching was at a premium, though, and Gillick was unwilling to part with any of his top prospects (Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco). The Phillies whiffed on that left-handed reliever as well for much the same reason.

In the division, the Mets didn’t add the corner outfielder or late-innings reliever they were looking for, and the Marlins didn’t add anyone besides Arthur Rhodes after relentless rumors of Manny-to-Miami. The Phillies’ lack of action doesn’t hamper their playoff chances any. They have the best bullpen in the National League to go along with their second-best offense and surprisingly efficient starting pitching.

New York Mets

July was a good month to the Mets. Going 18-8 in the last month, the Mets were looking to add a corner outfielder but may have been turned off of that idea by Fernando Tatis and his amazing month of production. Simply put, they will not continue to succeed with an outfield of Tatis, Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez, and Nick Evans. And Tatis, helped by an alarmingly high BABIP (.376 overall; .440 over the last 28 days), will not continue to produce at such a high level.

Additionally, the lack of an addition of a reliable relief pitcher puts a dent in their post-season hopes. Only two pitchers — Billy Wagner and Scott Schoenweis — have been significantly productive. Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano, and Duaner Sanchez have hovered around the average 100 ERA+ and Heilman’s at 90.

The Mets, more than any other team, hurt themselves by idling their way to the start of August.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals were active at the trade deadline but were very hesitant to pull the trigger on any transactions. There were rumors that they’d trade for A.J. Burnett, or that they’d trade Kyle Lohse, or that they’d trade for a closer. They did nothing and it’s probably for the better, considering their future. They only have a +28 run differential and trail the Chicago Cubs by five games and are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers who have a run differential of only +10. The Cubs, meanwhile, are at +130. Simply put, they are not going to catch the Cubs, and have only the Wild Card to look at, where they are competing with two of three NL East teams, the Brewers, and one of two (possibly two of three) NL West teams.

It’s better that they didn’t part with a couple of their good prospects for quick fixes in the bullpen. Their bullpen is not as bad as it seems and while it would have been nice to have Brian Fuentes, he wouldn’t have altered their odds of achieving the playoffs by too much and it would have come at a steep cost, likely catching prospect Bryan Anderson and more.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Like the Tigers, even though the D-Backs did acquire someone (Jon Rauch from the Nationals), I still count them as having been dormant. Rauch doesn’t help out too much unless Brandon Lyon becomes completely unable to close games for them.

What they needed was a potent offensive player to help out their below-average offense that averages merely 4.55 runs per game. Their pitching is great on all counts, and adding a bat like Mark Teixeira or Jason Bay (or even Manny Ramirez) would have given them a necessary OPS boost.

Instead, they saw the Dodgers, with an even less potent offense, acquire an impact offensive player in Manny Ramirez. Even with a two-game lead, the D-Backs can’t be considered favorites in the weak NL West anymore.

The Diamondbacks and Mets were the two teams most hurt by not doing much of anything before August 1.