A Tip to Laggers in the Holliday Sweepstakes

Posted by Bill Baer on Tuesday, July 22, 2008 at 12:45 pm

A few teams out there — the Mets, Angels, and Phillies namely — have been chatting up Colorado Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd about acquiring last year’s NL MVP runner-up Matt Holliday. According to Jon Heyman:

O’Dowd wanted Carlos Beltran as part of a package from the Mets, a request that was rejected by New York. And, according to a report in the Los Angeles Times, O’Dowd sought second baseman Howie Kendrick, pitching prospect Nick Adenhart and either Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders for Holliday, a proposition the Angels also rejected.

And, per Ken Rosenthal:

For Holliday and [left-handed relief pitcher Brian] Fuentes, the Phillies probably would need to part with a package of Shane Victorino, left-hander J.A. Happ, Class AA right-hander Carlos Carrasco and Class AA catcher Lou Marson.

Obviously, O’Dowd’s asking price for Holliday is sky high and neither the Phillies nor the Mets have the Minor League depth to seriously contend for Holliday’s services. It may be a blessing in disguise because once Holliday leaves Coors Field, he takes a step back. Observe his home/away OPS throughout his career…

2004: 1.009 OPS home/.654 away (-.355 difference)
2005: 1.002 home/.729 away (-.273)
2006: 1.132 home/.819 away (-.313)
2007: 1.157 home/.860 away (-.297)
2008: 1.113 home/.859 away (-.254)
Career: 1.091 home/.790 away (-.301)

For a comparison, Geovany Soto has an overall .859 OPS this season, so Holliday is basically Soto away from Coors Field. Not that that’s a bad thing, it’s just that his numbers are overinflated and teams are likely going to overpay for production they’re not going to get.

If teams are looking for both Holliday and Fuentes like the Phillies are, then they should instead look to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady and left-handed relievers John Grabow and Damaso Marte available.

Bay is fairly consistent whether it’s at home or on the road (this season, he’s sporting a .977 home OPS and a .832 road OPS, but this difference has not been the case throughout his career). Nady, while in Pittsburgh, has actually been better on the road. Even though they have nearly identical OPS figures this season, Bay is far and away the better of the two and there is a significant increase in price for him.

Of Marte and Grabow, Marte is the better of the two. Grabow’s defense has shaved nearly 1.25 runs off of his ERA while Marte’s hasn’t significantly affected his ERA (hurt it by 0.30). Grabow may be four years younger, but Marte has had an ERA+ over 118 for seven straight seasons while Grabow has only hit 96 or better three times in his career. If one of these lefties is involved in a package with Bay or Nady, there won’t be any significant increase in cost for Marte over Grabow.

For reference, here are the contract situations for the four Pirates…

Bay: Signed through ‘09; $5.75 million this season, $7.5 million next season.

Nady: Earning $3.35 million this season. Arbitration-eligible for ‘09, becomes free agent after ‘09. Likely to earn more than $5 million next season.

Grabow: Earning $1.135 million this season. Arbitration-eligible for ‘09, becomes free agent after ‘09.

Marte: Earning $2 million this season; club option for ‘09 worth $6 million (which the Pirates are highly likely to decline if they fail to trade him).

For teams that have both payroll issues and thin Minor League depth, a Nady/Grabow deal is probably as effective as a blockbuster Holliday/Fuentes acquisition. No combination of two Pirates is as productive as Holliday/Fuentes, but in terms of cost, it is the best option for teams in need of a corner outfielder and/or a late-innings left-handed relief pitcher.