Deadly Accurate: NL West
Our review of Baseball Prospectus’ 2011 PECOTA projections continues with the hits and misses of the National League West, a division comprised of top-heavy teams that has seen a different club capture the flag in each of the past three seasons. - Diamondbacks In 2011, Upton actually met Doug Thorburn’s expectations, and kicked the crap out of PECOTA’s. As a 21 year-old in 2009, Upton had a 20/20 season and slugged .532 in his first full season. However, 2010 represented a suspension-jarring speed bump as the potential Junior Griffey heir slugged a Senior-esque .442, prompting a lukewarm 2011 projection from PECOTA. Instead, ...
True Value, Part II: Press Your Luck
The sand trap of luck has sucked in a legion of baseball enthusiasts. Lured by deviant BABIP’s, even astute analysts continue to walk into the trap, and proceed to sink as they grasp for statistical explanations to pull themselves out of the muck. Luck has become the default scapegoat for anything that cannot be conveniently explained by the numbers at hand. There is no denying that luck plays a role in the outcome of balls in play, with bad hops and misplaced fielders among the culprits that a pitcher cannot control. Pitchers can also benefit from the glovemen behind them, as ...
Deadly Accurate: AL East
The projection game is dicey, with a multitude of systems competing for the accuracy crown, and the inevitability of outlier performances that are bound to make certain predictions look foolish in retrospect. The crew at Baseball Prospectus has undertaken this arduous task for over a decade, developing metrics and building a substantial database, culminating in the current incarnation of the “Deadly Accurate” PECOTA projection system. Bill James has a feature in his annual handbook that highlights the hits and misses of the previous season's projections, and the same thought recently occurred to me while flipping through my copy of BP2k11. The BP ...
True Value, Part I: Failure to Communicate
Value. It is a simple word, yet such a complicated concept. The meaning of the term is the source of considerable debate, especially as it relates to the game of baseball, where the subjective perception of value is forced to reconcile with the objectivity of performance stats. The numbers serve as an account of what transpires on the diamond, and the mathematically-savvy have specific preferences when evaluating the game under a statistical microscope. The argument reaches its pinnacle at this time each year, as the doling out of end-season awards puts the definition of “value” on the front page, and fanatics across ...
A New Way to Select Series MVPs
As soon as David Murphy flew out to left field to end Game 7 of the 2011 World Series, it seemed a foregone conclusion that David Freese would earn the World Series MVP title. Who else deserved the award but the hometown player with the single-best World Series performance in baseball history as well as a game-tying double in Game 7? Selecting an MVP in the World Series and League Championship Series is usually an afterthought. In the LCS it almost seems premature to select an MVP when there’s more baseball to be played. The World Seres MVP, selected by a ...
Blog Eat Blog: Irrational Radicals
by Doug Thorburn ( 1 Comment )
As a person who spends considerable time outside the box, I was intrigued when I came across yesterday’s ESPN headline for “Five radical game-changing proposals.” I am a big fan of articles that integrate the opinions of various writers, and this particular piece offered the thoughts of some of ESPN’s top contributors. So imagine my surprise as I devoured the words on my computer screen,... [Read more]
Deadly Accurate: NL West
by Sammy Reid ( No Comments )
Our review of Baseball Prospectus’ 2011 PECOTA projections continues with the hits and misses of the National League West, a division comprised of top-heavy teams that has seen a different club capture the flag in each of the past three seasons. - Diamondbacks In 2011, Upton actually met Doug Thorburn’s expectations, and kicked the crap out of PECOTA’s. As a 21 year-old in 2009, Upton had a... [Read more]
Deadly Accurate: AL Central
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
Our review of Baseball Prospectus’ 2011 PECOTA projections continues with the hits and misses of the American League Central, a division that has seen all but one ballclub finish in the top two spots over the last two years, with the Kansas City stragglers on the prospect-laden fast track to contention. Indians Friends of the feathered had to be relieved just to see Carlos Santana in a uniform... [Read more]
Deadly Accurate: NL East
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The review of BP2k11 continues with the NL East, a division that is undergoing a dramatic shift in the fortunes of several franchises. The Marlins have started throwing money around like it’s 1997, the Mets are in rapid decline, the Braves have a young core and plenty of pitching to spare as they challenge the aging Phillies, while the Nationals possess two of the most exciting young players... [Read more]
True Value, Part II: Press Your Luck
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The sand trap of luck has sucked in a legion of baseball enthusiasts. Lured by deviant BABIP’s, even astute analysts continue to walk into the trap, and proceed to sink as they grasp for statistical explanations to pull themselves out of the muck. Luck has become the default scapegoat for anything that cannot be conveniently explained by the numbers at hand. There is no denying that luck plays a... [Read more]
Deadly Accurate: AL East
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The projection game is dicey, with a multitude of systems competing for the accuracy crown, and the inevitability of outlier performances that are bound to make certain predictions look foolish in retrospect. The crew at Baseball Prospectus has undertaken this arduous task for over a decade, developing metrics and building a substantial database, culminating in the current incarnation of the “Deadly... [Read more]
True Value, Part I: Failure to Communicate
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
Value. It is a simple word, yet such a complicated concept. The meaning of the term is the source of considerable debate, especially as it relates to the game of baseball, where the subjective perception of value is forced to reconcile with the objectivity of performance stats. The numbers serve as an account of what transpires on the diamond, and the mathematically-savvy have specific preferences... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Burning Rubber
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The alarm clock has rung, marking the dawn of the season of roster turnover, and some teams are wasting little daylight before addressing their off-season needs. The new faces extend to front offices all over the country, as no fewer than eight ballclubs are experiencing an overhaul with respect to upper-management. Those teams with key executives still intact have a head start, and last week the... [Read more]
A New Way to Select Series MVPs
by Jeff Lubbers ( No Comments )
As soon as David Murphy flew out to left field to end Game 7 of the 2011 World Series, it seemed a foregone conclusion that David Freese would earn the World Series MVP title. Who else deserved the award but the hometown player with the single-best World Series performance in baseball history as well as a game-tying double in Game 7? Selecting an MVP in the World Series and League Championship Series... [Read more]
Wild Cards
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
Game Seven of the World Series is an experience like no other. Every other elimination game involves one team having the chance to take a champagne shower, with the other just hoping to play another day, but Game Seven means do-or-die for every player on the field. It is guaranteed to be the penultimate day of the baseball season, regardless of outcome, and America had not been treated to a World... [Read more]
Raising Aces: Pitch Sequencing
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
“Sequencing” is another one of those terms in the pitching lexicon that has multiple definitions. In Raising Aces, I have often used the mechanical definition of sequencing to describe the order in which a pitcher executes the various links of the kinetic chain. This element is intertwined with mechanical timing, in the sense that a pitcher that begins trunk rotation prior to achieving foot strike... [Read more]
Further Decline (?) of the Large Market Teams
by Jeff Lubbers ( 1 Comment )
What happens in baseball when a pre-conceived narrative doesn’t really fit reality? In the case of Justin Verlander, you make it fit anyway. When it comes to the Oakland Athletics, Moneyball, and small market teams, it seems like the baseball community is still struggling with what the Moneyball revolution really means. Last year I looked at the possible trend of teams with a lower (relative) payroll... [Read more]
What Are You Looking At?
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
Here we are on the cusp of the World Series, and though I should be filling up the word count with a lengthy diatribe on the Cards and Rangers, instead I find myself in a state of reflection. The playoffs are a challenge for a baseball writer bent on originality, as an excess of content is available in the industry’s collaborative effort to over-analyze just a handful of games. Right now,... [Read more]
Raising Aces: Matt Moore
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The Tampa Bay Rays exhausted their season to the final stroke before clinching the playoffs, and with top starters David Price and James Shields having pitched in the days prior, the Rays turned to a rookie pitcher to start Game One of the ALDS against the Rangers. Tampa possesses one of the front runners for the Rookie of the Year Award in hurler Jeremy Hellickson, yet Helix was not the rook... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Gone in Sixty Minutes
by Doug Thorburn ( 1 Comment )
A lot can happen in an hour. It was approximately 7:45pm (PST) when I left work on Wednesday night, and though I had missed the majority of the day’s crucial palette of games, I was relieved to learn upon my departure that three of the four contests of intrigue were still in action. The games were all in the third trimester according to my Smartphone; the Red Sox were up 3-2 on Baltimore but... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Agony of Defeat
by Doug Thorburn ( 2 Comments )
I was at the Oakland O.co Coliseum last Friday night, and witnessed the Tigers’ 3-1 victory over the A’s that clinched the AL Central. Watching the Detroit players celebrate was a tough pill to swallow, as a painful reminder that the hometown Athletics are a far cry from the last squad that enjoyed a victory dogpile. Oakland’s last playoff series was back in 2006, when they were swept in the... [Read more]
Will Someone Please Give Derek Jeter Some Attention
by Jeff Lubbers ( No Comments )
I’m not sure I ever thought I’d say this but it looks like the baseball community is suffering from Derek Jeter fatigue. For perhaps the first time it appears as though the Captain is not getting his due. How else to explain the lack of recognition for the fact that in his first 50 games since collecting his 3,000th career hit Jeter posted a triple slash line of .332/.387/.434? Consider it sweet... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Tor-Votto?
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
September is a time for magic numbers, cups of coffee, and friendly banter about the end-season awards. Trade speculation is typically saturated in July, and then cooked over a hot stove during the winter while we base-heads play the woulda-coulda-shoulda game and mull the hits and misses of free agency. However, the trade winds have been turning the rumor mill early this fall, and one shot in the... [Read more]
Stras Wars V: Return of the Prodigy
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
It has been a year since the last time that we watched an episode of Stras Wars, and while the previous installment was clouded with mystery in the aftermath of the UCL strain heard ’round the world, the re-emergence of Stephen Strasburg on a Major League pitching mound allows us to begin part V with a fresh coat of optimism. All things considered, Stras looked great out of the gate in his start... [Read more]
Value Exists At The Bottom of The Standings As Well
by Jeff Lubbers ( 1 Comment )
Maybe it’s the relative lack of playoff races this year that’s contributing to what seems to be an excessive amount of discussion for the month of August regarding individual awards. Simply put, baseball fans get worked up over their Cy Young Winners and MVPs. And when a pitcher such as Justin Verlander wins 20 games before August 31, despite the fact he may not even be the league’s best pitcher,... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: CY Clones
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The MVP races are heating up, and thus the baseball blogosphere has been saturated by the competition between the leagues’ top players down the stretch. MVP awards are often won and lost in the waning weeks of the season, and raw totals will often be overlooked in favor of a player who follows the proverbial role of “carrying a team on his back” and into the playoffs. September can also... [Read more]
Raising Aces: Four of a Kind, Part 2
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
Despite a negotiation window that whittled down to the final 72 hours, Monday’s signing deadline passed with all but one of the draft’s 33 first rounders inking a deal. The Big Four at the top signed predictably massive deals (combined signing bonuses over $27 million), with all but #3 pick Trevor Bauer taking their sweet time to sign. After setting a record with four consecutive pitchers... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: The Beard Most Feared
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The face of the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants was closer Brian Wilson, and that face came replete with a ginormous beard that would qualify him to sing backup vocals for ZZ Top. While the coloring is bad enough to make Keith Hernandez consider rescinding his contract with Just for Men, the legend of the beard has grown to almost Bruce Lee levels, and Wilson’s tremendous moxie just... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Changing Pastures
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The last weeks of July are marked by packed bags and plane tickets, as a multitude of ballplayers experience a sudden change of address during the period between the All Star Game and the trade deadline. The guys grabbing the headlines are either veterans fishing for a contender or prospects that could be used as bait, but there has also been a recent wave of minor league reinforcements to infiltrate... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Electrocuted
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
It is often said that the Pacific Coast League is a “hitter’s league,” where the guys at the plate enjoy an advantage over their counterparts on the mound. The implication is that stats posted in the PCL need to be judged in context, especially when projecting future performance. A .300/.400/.500 slash line would be the mark of an MVP candidate in the majors, but in the PCL those ratios... [Read more]
Blog Eat Blog: Back in the Swing
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
I love to travel, but leaving the country in the middle of summer can be bittersweet. The first couple days are fine, but then a sense of anxiety begins to build. By the third or fourth day of a trip I’m waking up in the middle of the night, not from jet lag or time changes, but with the obsessive repetition of a single thought: “what’s happening in Major League Baseball?” It’s... [Read more]
Raising Aces: Four of a Kind
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
The 2011 Draft was absolutely loaded with pitching, and for the first time in the history of the event, each of the top four selections were moundsmen. As a group, the 2011 draftees had unparalleled depth with regard to upside, stuff, and mechanics. The first three choices were of the college variety, while #4 Dylan Bundy was tabbed by some as “the most polished high school pitcher in years.”... [Read more]
Raising Aces: Da Pitching Code
by Doug Thorburn ( No Comments )
BP’s Jason Parks wrapped up his excellent scouting series last week, and one of the final takeaways addressed the mystery of “scout speak.” “…observations are usually documented or expressed in “scout speak,” which is a language preferred by grown men who get a kick out of speaking in code in the same way kids get a kick out of protecting the sanctity of a fort.” Scout... [Read more]
